The pdf I linked is still available. Here's a few excerpts:
Midcontinent ISO (MISO): Reduced coal and natural-gas-fired generation by over 5 GW since Winter 2023–2024 has contributed to a decline in available resources. Lower internal capacity is partially offset by a 2 GW increase in firm capacity imports into the area. Additionally, MISO’s margin is being helped by a lower peak demand forecast, down over 4 GW since last winter. MISO recently implemented a seasonal resource adequacy construct that more effectively values risks and resource contributions that vary by time of year. With fewer internal dispatchable resources and increasing reliance on wind and imports, the risk of supply shortfall in winter has increased in MISO
2. Natural gas fuel to generators is threatened this winter by ongoing concerns with natural gas production and delivery in extreme conditions and a potential regional pipeline capacity issue in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Natural gas is an essential fuel for electricity generation in winter. While the natural gas industry is making progress on commercial practices and voluntary commitments to improve winter preparedness, supplies to electric generators remain vulnerable in extreme cold temperatures in many parts of North America, placing electric reliability at risk. As winter approaches, NERC encourages all entities across the gas-electric value chain—from production to the burner tip and the busbar—to take all necessary actions to prepare for extreme cold, keep natural gas flowing, and keep the lights and furnaces on.
At the time of this WRA, the operator of a major interstate natural gas pipeline expansion project serving the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and Northeast is facing legal challenges to the continued operation of the expanded pipeline. According to a recent Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) filing, a halting of the expanded pipeline operations would affect “firm transportation capacity in New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Alabama.” These states correspond to the PJM, NPCC-New York, SERC-East, and SERC-Southeast assessment areas. During recent extreme winter weather events, each of these areas has experienced or come dangerously close to a shortfall in electricity supply for which fuel availability was a significant factor. Because foreseeable extreme cold temperatures have the potential to push the existing natural gas supply infrastructure to maximum capacity again this winter, a shutdown of in-service regional natural gas facilities would endanger grid reliability.
2 Recommendations
To reduce the risks of energy shortfalls on the BPS this winter, NERC recommends the following:
• RCs, BAs, and Transmission Operators (TOP) in the elevated risk areas identified in the key findings should review seasonal operating plans and the protocols for communicating and resolving potential supply shortfalls in anticipation of potentially high generator outages and extreme demand levels. Operators should review recommendations contained in the 2022 Winter Storm Elliott Report and follow-up actions as well as lessons learned from the 2023–2024 Winter.
• Generator Owners (GO) should complete winter readiness plans and checklists prior to December, deploy weatherization packages well in advance of approaching winter storms, and frequently check and maintain cold weather mitigations while conditions persist.
• BAs should be cognizant of the potential for short-term load forecasts to underestimate load in extreme cold weather events and be prepared to take early action to implement protocols and procedures for managing potential reserve deficiencies. Proactive issuance of winter advisories and other steps directed at generator availability contributed to improved reliability during January 2024 winter storms Gerri and Heather compared to prior arctic storms.
• RCs and BAs should implement generator fuel surveys to monitor the adequacy of fuel supplies. They should prepare their operating plans to manage potential supply shortfalls and take proactive steps for generator readiness, fuel availability, load curtailment, and sustained operations in extreme conditions.
• State and provincial regulators can assist grid owners and operators in advance of and during extreme cold weather by supporting requested environmental and transportation waivers as well as public appeals for electricity and natural gas conservation.
