Medicare into the red this year, bankrupt by 2019

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Report Says Medicare to Go Broke by 2019

The report says that adding a $500B prescription drug benefit has hastened the demise of Medicare. I have news for them - the final cost will far exceed $1T and 2019 is very optimistic. The system will be bankrupt in about 10 years.

The report states that the outlook for Social Security is unchanged, bankrupt by 2042. Again, that is optimistic and likely to be well before.

Easy prediction - JF Kerry will blame Bush. Painfully obvious - nobody is serious about reform and future taxpayers are in for pure misery. The democrats wanted a much more expensive prescription drug benefit and no reforms. The republicans fulfilled a campaign promise and showed reckless disregard for your money. Which is worse?

Keith.
 
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You can't go on forever promising everything to everybody. People live too long, gotta get them smoking again and on high-fat diets like 40 years ago.
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Something like 80% of health care dollars are spent on people in their last year of life. When the govt takes over health care, and they will, the day will come when some bureacrat or policy will say "You're too old, too sick, no more hospital and medicine for you." Got to get the cost of medicine down, starting with malpractice insurance reform. When the govt does take over health care though, no more malpractice suits because you can't sue the govt unless the govt says you can. And you know which way that will go. Therefore the Dems with money from the trial lawyer lobby, block reform. Long-term goal is to make health care so unaffordable for both patients and providers that the govt has to take it over, a long-time Dem goal. Any time cost is controlled, sooner or later supply gets rationed. Mark my words. [/mindless rambling]
 
You're asking whats worse, what happened or what didn't happen. Where's the cunfusion?

Well, on the bright side, that $300 tax "rebate" (which was fully taxable) sure did great things for all of us!
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Who cares!! I am tired of feeding a machine that is not going to be their when I am old enough to use it. I feel the same way about Social Secuirity! I am 30 what good is it to me?

I have never like social programs that take money from people and then redistribute it. If you did not contribute you should not get a dime!

I wish they would do away with it all together. It has never done a darn thing for any of my family! I am tired of my pocket being picked for such programs. I want the money I work so hard for!!!

[ March 23, 2004, 09:40 PM: Message edited by: JohnBrowning ]
 
It's simply demographics. We're an old society ..at one time we were a young society.

The chickens have come home to roost...time to pay the piper.

Think of how many of you on the right listened to Rush as he bellowed "Get the bums off of welfare ..they'll pay taxes and this will solve everything"

..then think of you on the left listening to ..

'The RICH ..THE RICH ..they're the reason for your plight!!!"

Meanwhile the increase in medicare outstripped all the revenue that could either be saved or generated by either demonized group.

Think about it folks ..no one is going to fess up to the economic cliff that we are heading towards. The sad part about it is that it won't fix itself when we're all dead (the baby boomers who are costing soooooooooooo much) ..we're borrowing so much into the future that the debt service will be so high that no amount of taxation will bring it back to a managable level.

Chinese curse: May you live in interesting times
 
Here's another take on this issue,

Bush's Medicare dream turning into a nightmare
March 22, 2004
BY WILLIAM DOUGLAS
FREE PRESS WASHINGTON STAFF

WASHINGTON -- Enactment of a sweeping Medicare overhaul law last year was supposed to be the crowning achievement of President George W. Bush's "compassionate conservatism" as he readied himself for re-election.

But less than four months after he signed it into law on Dec. 8, Bush's Medicare reform dream has turned into a nightmare and a potential drag on his bid for re-election. The biggest expansion of the government social service net in a generation now is drawing fire on several fronts:

The Health and Human Services general inspector's office is investigating a claim by the government's top expert on Medicare costs that the administration concealed from Congress the true cost of the program.

The House Ethics Committee plans to investigate whether threats and bribes were used to pass the bill in the House.

The General Accounting Office (GAO) is investigating whether the Bush administration spent millions of taxpayer dollars on TV ads touting the Medicare reform law that look suspiciously like Bush campaign commercials.

The Medicare law will provide about 40 million seniors with a prescription drug card beginning this year that could net savings of 15 percent to 25 percent. Beginning in 2006, seniors will be able to enroll in a Medicare drug plan or join a private health insurance plan offering drug coverage.

But the law's afterglow faded fast once lawmakers learned it could cost at least $100 billion more than the $395 billion over 10 years that the White House claimed. That revelation in late January riled budget hawks who had said they wouldn't vote for a measure that cost more than $400 billion.

Lawmakers got steamed again this month when the nation's top Medicare actuary, Richard Foster, told the Free Press Washington bureau that he had projected the higher cost long before Congress voted. Foster said his boss, former Medicare administrator Thomas Scully, threatened to fire him if he gave the real numbers to Congress.

House Democrats, led by Rep. Henry Waxman, D-Calif., the ranking member of the House Government Reform Committee, are threatening a lawsuit to force Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson to turn over all of Foster's undisclosed estimates.

Karl Rove, Bush's chief political strategist, called the Medicare issue "much ado about nothing" on Friday.

Democrats say they hope to get answers Wednesday during a House Ways and Means Committee hearing.
Unusual vote

Many lawmakers also felt abused when they said GOP leaders pushed the bill through the House on Nov. 22 by keeping the vote open for nearly three hours -- usually votes are allowed only 15 minutes -- and by twisting members' arms until they supported it.

The House Ethics Committee has launched an investigation into allegations by Rep. Nick Smith, R-Mich., that "bribes and special deals were offered" to induce him to vote for the bill.

Smith, who voted against the bill, initially said that unidentified Republican power brokers offered "extensive financial support and endorsements for my son, Brad, who is running for my seat. They also made threats of working against Brad if I voted no."

Smith later backed off his bribery claim, but the Ethics Committee is proceeding anyway.
Ads investigated

In addition, the GAO, the investigative arm of Congress, is examining whether Health and Human Services TV ads touting the new law -- with prominent pictures of Bush -- constitute illegal political propaganda. The GAO already has concluded that the ads contain "notable omissions and errors," but its preliminary judgment was that they are legal.

Meanwhile, a Gallup poll in January showed public dissatisfactionwith the program. Fifty-three percent of those surveyed said the prescription drug benefit didn't go far enough; 27 percent said it was about right while 9 percent said it went too far.
Cover-up alleged

The mushrooming controversy is spurring cries of cover-up from Democrats.

"There is no place for silencing the truth," said Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, the presumptive Democratic presidential candidate. "I believe the American people deserve real answers on why this administration is keeping public officials quiet and keeping facts from the American people."

By last week's end, congressional Republicans were rallying behind Bush and dismissing the allegations as a Democratic scheme to discredit a GOP triumph.

Independent analysts, including conservatives, weren't so sanguine. "This bill will not go down in the annals of good government," said Robert Moffitt, the director of the Center for Health Policy Studies at the Heritage Foundation. "Now it's a political problem."
end quote

It also doesn't help when millions were given to the private drug and HMO companies and that Medicare was banned from negotiating lower drug costs. I don't know how disbanding the medicare system is going to improve life for Americans unless you have the opinion of, "Just let them die in the gutter", which I don't believe most have here. Healthcare is unlike any other service offered in this free market system. Can't afford a house, rent or buy a mobile home, can't afford a new car, buy used etc. Healthcare does not give those same economic choices to people of different means except of course going without. This is one area where the free market has failed and will not be fixed by the free market.
 
quote:

Originally posted by needtoknow:
Healthcare is unlike any other service offered in this free market system. Can't afford a house, rent or buy a mobile home, can't afford a new car, buy used etc. Healthcare does not give those same economic choices to people of different means except of course going without. This is one area where the free market has failed and will not be fixed by the free market.

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I almost hate to agree, but basically I do. Again, my take is to get the price down by getting the cost down. (My previous job was working in the purchasing dept. of a large hospital, so I know whereof I speak.) SS was created as a supplemental retirement fund and was not intended to be the whole salami, also you collected at age 65 at a time when the avg life expectancy was 65 1/2.
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Medicare when the avg lifespan was maybe 70. The system wasn't meant to support people for 30 years at a time in their lives when they need the most healthcare. Time was most everybody died from a heart attack, stroke, or cancer before they had time to get sick from a bunch of other stuff. My mom's parents died in their late 60's and early 70's and at the time they were OLD. Now mom is 68 and bopping around not having appreciably slowed down at all despite a bout with cancer herself 3 years ago. Though if you're like me and born after 1958, you don't get SS until you're 70. This would go over like a "loud noise in church"
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but I think it's time to start means testing for SS recipients, i.e. if you make over a certain amount from pension and investments you get less or no SS. And to think I'm a right-winger.


Edited one word only.

[ March 24, 2004, 01:46 PM: Message edited by: 59 Vetteman ]
 
Hi, just emailed this to Bob:

hi....your paper flies in the face of the changing nature of medicine.

A new era of patient care is emerging where instead of taking pills to 'cure' an illness or assist in recovery, people will take maintenance doses for the rest of their lives. Implant technology is very hot...I invest in it; and conditions like ADD & ADHD where RITALIN was taken with the expectation that an adolescent would mature out of it are persisting well into adulthood--along with the daily medication schedule of a dangerous amphetamine.

In other words, the biomedical technology imperative is rushing us into an era of intensive daily uptake of medications for the rest of our lives--and my normally calm internist lectured me at length last month on this trend and convinced me to take a look at its implication for the delivery of health care services to an aging population.

The choice is now guns or pills, and given this choice the health conscious voter will choose to dramatically reduce the American Military empire and its thousands of facilities around the world and in the U.S., and probably our two bases----Brunswick Naval Air Station and Kittery ship yard, in favor of subsidized maintenance medications.


...and I might add, your critique sounds a tad like 'sour grapes' given Heritage's failed campaign against this legislation."

[ March 24, 2004, 11:16 AM: Message edited by: Mainiac ]
 
The last figure I got was that paperwork accounted for at least 15% of the costs of healthcare. Could any business look at that and say it's OK. We are also finding out that bad eating and exercise habits have exploded obesity and will only add to the use of healthcare, largely by people who can't afford to buy insurance or pay as they go. I never understand why there isn't more done to equate actions with consequences either by individuals or by society as a whole. We just seem to want to pass it on to the next administration.
 
quote:

Originally posted by needtoknow:
I never understand why there isn't more done to equate actions with consequences either by individuals or by society as a whole. We just seem to want to pass it on to the next administration.

Because we've spent the last 15+ years steadily trying to remove responsibility for individual actions. I'm a (insert bad/criminal behavior)... but its not my fault. I (was abused, had a dysfunctional family etc.) so its not my fault that I'm a ******* who doesn't bother to think through my actions or care about anything other than myself and my immediate gratification.

Yes ntk, we are all to willing as both individuals and a society to simply pass the buck to the next administration and the next generation.

Look at the eldery population today. Its all about quantity not quality of life. We've got individuals in their mid 70s who are on 20+ pills a day to keep their organs functioning correctly... and who at the same time are going in for a hip replacement. There isn't an endless supply of money for all this medical care. Its about time we start asking people to be more responsible for their own healthcare and make the tough decisions. "Well Mr. Smith, you're 73 years old and I see you need meds for the myriad of heart problems you have. If we give you these meds we can extend your life by a good 12 years. I see that you also need a hip replacement. So you make the choice Mr. Smith, your hip or your heart. 12 more years of life with a bum hip, or we fix your hip now and no more heart meds and your life expectancy will be another 7 years instead of 12."

"I want to live forever" seems to be the mantra of the AARP crowd... along with the expectation that they'll be able to continue with the same active lifestyle the enjoyed earlier in life.

My grandfather who has had 4 heart attacks in his life (heart severely damaged and functions about 50% as well as a normal heart for someone his age)is now confined to using a walker and or electric wheelchair for mobility and has worsening COPD signed DNR (do not resuscitate) orders last year. He's concerned with quality over quantity. His exact words to me "I've lived for 78 years which is long enough. I'm not in the best of health and next time something happens I don't want to be brought back from the brink only to live on in even worse shape than I am in now. I hope you understand." Yes I certainly do, and would much rather see him go than live on bedridden an miserable.
 
Forkman ..I agree with your grandfather.

I'm a walking risk factor. I'm heavy ..smoked far too long and have diabetes. I hope that I don't ever go through what I saw in the limited time that my mother spent in the rest home.

I will not be clawing at some doctor as a life preserver when my time comes. I do not anticipate being a major burden to the publically funded health care system.

"They shoot horses, don't they?"
 
Forkman,
I don't think we can just say individual responsibility is the solution, Nancy Reagan's "just say no" approach doesn't work. I go back to the overweight/diabetes issue as an example. As a society we spend billions subsidizing bad for your health foods such as corn and it's by-products to a far greater extent than fruits and vegetables. We also allow food corporations who manufacture fattening bad for your health foods to advertise to children on a constant basis. We engrain and subsidize bad habits and decisions that last a lifetime but for which the people who do the brain washing and make the profits bear no consequences. The cigarette industry is another good example. Those costs are passed on to society as a whole. People need to see an instant consequence for certain action. In this economy that tool seems to be price and taxes. Simply putting out government feel good ads as are now being done will not work.
 
One thing I cannot understand is why the Democrats are always trying to raise taxes but never make a peep about the regressive nature of the SS and medicare taxes. Take the lid off of them and the problem is solved. As much as the Demo's hate "the rich" I just cannot fathom this. I have only earned over the limit one year in my life and I think it was in the 70's. That limit is a loophole and "windfall" for those in the upper tax brackets. The congress only raises the limit enough to keep it firmly on the backs of the middle class. When the dual nature (both employer and employee) is considered, the amount of money lost on all these fat cats is truly astounding.
 
quote:

Originally posted by needtoknow:
[] Forkman,
I don't think we can just say individual responsibility is the solution, Nancy Reagan's "just say no" approach doesn't work.

Individual responsiblity is always the ultimate solution... "just say no" doesn't work because people are unwilling to exercise the personal reponsiblity and restraint involved in just saying no.

quote:

I go back to the overweight/diabetes issue as an example. As a society we spend billions subsidizing bad for your health foods such as corn and it's by-products to a far greater extent than fruits and vegetables.

You can thank all the politicians from both side of the isle for the pandering to the farm lobby and large agri-business concerns. Although, corn itself is not "bad for you". Just like anything else, excessive consumption however isn't healthy.

quote:

We also allow food corporations who manufacture fattening bad for your health foods to advertise to children on a constant basis. We engrain and subsidize bad habits and decisions that last a lifetime but for which the people who do the brain washing and make the profits bear no consequences.

This smacks of removing personal responsiblity and parental responsiblity from the equation. Its not the parents fault that they buy what amounts to junk food and let their children consume excessive quantities of it (there is nothing inherently wrong with junk food... moderation is the key). Its instead the "evil" corporations who are at fault for making and marketing the product.

quote:

People need to see an instant consequence for certain action. In this economy that tool seems to be price and taxes.

Yes, rather than asking people to exercise perosonal responsibility and restraint, we'll simply protect them from themselves by taxing the "bad" goods to the point that they are no longer affordabe in large quantities for the average consumer. People don't need to see instant consequence, they need to be able to actually think about the long term impact of their actions... That's a tough sell in an instant gratification society such as ours.
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Simply putting out government feel good ads as are now being done will not work. ]

And further removing any personal responsibility is also not the answer.

Look at the recent McDonalds lawsuit that was thankfully thrown out. Plaintiff claims its McD's fault that hes grossly obese and suffering from health problems because he ate every day, multiple times a day from McDs. Its not his fault that he couldn't think through the fact that large amounts of greasy burgers and fries were probably not the wisest choice for multiple meals in a week.

If I subsist off of nothing but Swanson Hungry Man tv dinners which come in at about 45g/fat on average for 2 meals every day and also don't bother to do anything other than set on my rear and play video games can I then sue both Swanson for producing the food, Sony for selling the PS2 and the game producer for making such an addictive game? Its my own fault for choosing the above actions... but we should tax Swanson products and the company directly to force the price beyond affordability for me? We should also tax Sony and the game manufacturers along with their products so that they are also beyond affordability for me to protect me from my own stupidity, sloth, and gluttony?

I guess I'm just old fashioned thinking that people should be held responsible for their own actions and making the correct decisions instead adopting the "its not my fault" attituded and looking for a convenient scapegoat.

[ March 25, 2004, 11:54 AM: Message edited by: Forkman ]
 
And in 20 years, when our these programs fail, and we replace them, they are going to fail as well--and here's why:

(at the risk of offendeding...)
We live in a society of lazy, gluttonous slobs. Kids these days eat CRAP morning, noon, and night. Parents don't have a friggin' clue anymore than "healthy" snacks like "Gogurt" (yogurt in a tube) are nothing but sugar and chemicals. Kids are not getting exercise, and we're raising a nation of fat little piggies who are being afflicted by juvenile diabeties at a staggering rate.

And adults are no better. People don't take care of themselves, and then they expect society to pay for their medical bills.

And the elderly are no better--if not worse. Fatty foods, smoking, etc etc and then they suck down $4k/month in drugs I am paying for every time my health insurance premium is taken out of my paycheck.

The other day I saw a grotesquely obese woman standing in front of a building smoking. I looked at her and came to realize that people like her are responsible for probably 80% of healthcare costs in this country--with pediatrics making up the majority of the balance. And she had the gall to blow her smoke in the face of everyone who walked in and out of that door.

It's just as much a lifestyle problem as a financial problem. We have all the knowledge we need to live healthy lives. Yet, people ignore this. The overwhelming majority of ailments are the result of poor lifestyle choices... yet we abide by it. It's bull sheet.

I have no sympathy for anyone I see sucking down a double quarter pounder with cheese and finishing it off with a Marlboro... if you die of a stroke, you should have seen it coming, and you alone should be paying for the treatment.

*pant* *wheeze*
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Forkman, the concept that if people would just do this or just do that the world would be perfect is a great idea but is not reality. I would submit that it even goes beyond what most conservatives like to chide liberals for. Whether we pay for other peoples bad health decisions through private plans or public ones it still costs us. Even Bush made the statement that health care costs are a drag on business expansion and hiring. Somehow protecting Drug companies from Medicare negotiating lower prices does not make any sense. Do we ban the military from negotiating the best price? Also giving millions directly to drug companies and HMO's and not using that to either reduce the cost of the program or give better coverage also does not make sense. The US has the higest healthcare costs of any western nation, this in a country that prides itself on creating an efficient business climate. I also don't think you really believe that Democrats invented subsidies but I'm willing to look at the evidence.
 
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Originally posted by Al:
Well its a disaster.... But interestingly the Democrats who said it didn't go nearly far enough now are crying that it costs too much.
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TheRepublicans are merely doing as Democrats have done for years- legislating to buy votes. Nothing new here
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Just the knee-jerk reaction of the Dems to do the opposite of whatever the GOP does (even if it's something the Dems used to do). When has a Democrat ever cared about what something cost?
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quote:

Originally posted by dickwells:
One thing I cannot understand is why the Democrats are always trying to raise taxes but never make a peep about the regressive nature of the SS and medicare taxes. Take the lid off of them and the problem is solved. As much as the Demo's hate "the rich" I just cannot fathom this. I have only earned over the limit one year in my life and I think it was in the 70's. That limit is a loophole and "windfall" for those in the upper tax brackets. The congress only raises the limit enough to keep it firmly on the backs of the middle class. When the dual nature (both employer and employee) is considered, the amount of money lost on all these fat cats is truly astounding.

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Agree totally. The principle is that there is a $ limit that you can collect from SS, therefore there is a limit you should pay in. Regressive certainly, but up to a point, there's your flat tax (7.65%). I own a small business, my largest expenses in order are wages, work comp insurance, and the FICA (Soc Sec) payroll tax. YOU pay 7.65% of your wages but your employer also matches 7.65% for all employees. My preference would be to eliminate the cap and everyone pays the same, but lower, rate on all their wages. Tiger Woods probably hits the SS cap by dinner time on New Year's Day. Most of my employees pay far more FICA than Federal income tax.
 
Well its a disaster.... But interestingly the Democrats who said it didn't go nearly far enough now are crying that it costs too much.
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TheRepublicans are merely doing as Democrats have done for years- legislating to buy votes. Nothing new here
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