The only better mousetrap I saw was the Volt.
Growth in EV sales
- Thread starter Snagglefoot
- Start date
The only better mousetrap I saw was the Volt.
I don't know if you need any more praise, but you sir are a gentleman and a scholar for your contribution to the science of electric vehicles.I don’t remember working this out and writing this, but I don’t mind being quoted, makes me feel like an academic or something to have someone cite my work.
A lot less than $50K; that's the point. A $25K (or $30K maybe?) does what, double the TAM?
The new car market grows substantially. Non-existing markets, like LATAM, open up.
And pressures the stupid mark ups of today.
A few things need to happen, starting with the choked supply chain. Fix it car companies, or die. Elon will. He built his charging network before his cars!
You wanna know who gets hurt? The big guys with their outdated factories, logistics and dealership distribution model. End-to-end, if you will.
They just might be toast... Regardless, they will face substantial challenges in about 2 years as Tesla Model 2s are running around everywhere. And they know it. They can't make a profit on their small cars now (what's the GM on Corollas?); how will they compete in a Model 2 world?
It's true, that's where we're at. I still remember paying $15k for a new 2005 Nissan Sentra SpecV with factory Brembo brakes. List was $19k on the car.
I say maybe. If Model 2s are running around everywhere in 2 years like you say and the grid can't support it a lot of people might just get disgusted and switch to back to ICE or Hybrid. The grid here is at least 25 years away from supporting the EV's the current admin is dreaming about. 2 years if they're running around everywhere as you say, I have a feeling a lot of the love will be lost. If the current admin gets voted out maybe eFuel stands a chance or hybrids, and the transition will be slower, smoother and welcomed by more. In any event it will be interesting.
TAM should more than double at half off, but usability needs to be there.
The US has been out of the top 10 small car business too long.
The dealership model is under tremendous pressure to shape up. The most valuable thing they offer these days is service.
People will gladly pay $25K for new instead of used; that's a no brainer. The Model 2 will be a mini SUV. Teslas are super reliable.
Service requirements decline substantially with EVs. And nobody makes EVs like Tesla.
The big boys can't even manage their supply chain. They can't program their firmware. They can't make small cars at a decent profit and lose money on their EV BU. Dealerships are out of control, quality is declining. Their loyal base is getting battered. And yeah, they want you to buy $50K cars.
Now there's a business plan for ya!
Who knows? My crystal ball is as cloudy as anyone else's. The grid is a problem, for sure. But is that a deal breaker or opportunity? And remember, you charge off peak. Condos around here have begun adding charging capabilities due to demand.
I have laid out a pretty accurate current scenario. Today's car costs are too high for many people. Musk's plan is to sell cars people can afford, by lowering current prices and building the "everyman's car" that does not exist today. The market doubles and he owns the TAM bottom half. Dealerships suck. You have enlightened me on Ford quality issues.
One more thing: ask a Tesla owner how much they like their car. We are cult-ish; there's a reason for it. Then ask younger people what car they want.
I know I live in a tech bubble; Silicon Valley ain't the US and ain't the world. But we are leaders. It wasn't that long ago (1977) that Jobs and Wozniak gave us the Apple II. Now America walks around with Cray's in our back pocket.
Interesting times ahead...
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Funny that you mention that. I get so many huge thumbs up and waves from young people in the Tesla. They ignore me in my GTI. It seems young people understand and appreciate what a Tesla is.
Young people grew up with tablets and laptops. Schools use Chromebooks. My grand nieces take to the Model 3 tablet like nothing.
When we go somewhere, "Let's take the Tesla!" Tech offers so much more...
My kids still love getting into the GTI, but I would think they prefer the Tesla. I've never asked them too much about it, but the GTI seems to be more of a novelty because we use the Tesla so much, especially on family trips because it has more legroom. I don't think the'd miss the GTI if I bought a Model 3 Performance though.
I guess it depends on where you live. In all honesty I don't know a friend or a family member who would own an EV here on the East Coast. I do agree they are cult-ish, none of use are members of that cult or want to be. We do have a feeling it will be forced upon us at some point. FTR- the kids I know don't like them either, I asked. Again it might be regional.
I think he was trying to say that we understand how good they are. It's hard to understand why they are great to drive unless you drive them on a daily basis. I understand why they're hard to picture using without the desire to drive them.
I've never bought a new vehicle and the age of those I own are 13, 18, and 30 years. I would consider a used electric vehicle and was actually interested in a used Leaf at about the $12K mark but the same age/type have gone up to $18K in my area since the pandemic started and haven't come down yet.
The thing is, overall electricity demand isn't linear either. There are huge time of day swings. This transition will work best if people don't charge their cars between noon and 8PM, with exceptions made for people on road trips. There's plenty of electricity available in the non-peak hours.
Grid and Market Conditions
www.ercot.com
The Texas system wide demand looks like this pretty much every day:
Also, there's this. Most of the year we are not operating anywhere near capacity, to give Texas as an example. The current total maximum capacity is 153,466 MW on the ERCOT grid. You may say that, well solar is not available at night, but peak summertime consumption is always in the afternoon. Current day forecasted demand is around 56,000 MW. For a large portion of the year, accommodating a large EV fleet will not be a challenge even at the current capacity. It's those days when it's 105-110 statewide that the numbers go sideways, or winter days like last December where we didn't get out of the teens.
