Gas prices for the next 1 year....

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wavinwayne

wavinwayne

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Jan 6, 2005
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Where do you BITOGers believe the avg. national retail price of gasoline will top out in the next year? Is $3/gallon a reasonable expectation?.....higher???......lower????

What say the BITOGers? Don't just throw numbers out there. Think about it before you answer.
 
If you look at past performances, it's going to roller coaster like everything else. When ever there is a demand for cheaper products, someone will build it. Even now, oil companies are building new refineries, which is probably the main reason gas is so high. Soon, the refineries will pump out so much gas that the supply will overshadow demand, which will leave a glut in the market and prices will come down. I would say, within the next two years, gas will be at about 1.75 gallon.
 
quote:
Originally posted by Schmoe:
....Even now, oil companies are building new refineries, which is probably the main reason gas is so high....
Click to expand...
Huh?
dunno.gif
I didn't think any new refineries had been built in the last 25-30 years in the USA.
 
quote:
Originally posted by Schmoe:
If you look at past performances, it's going to roller coaster like everything else. When ever there is a demand for cheaper products, someone will build it. Even now, oil companies are building new refineries, which is probably the main reason gas is so high. Soon, the refineries will pump out so much gas that the supply will overshadow demand, which will leave a glut in the market and prices will come down. I would say, within the next two years, gas will be at about 1.75 gallon.
Click to expand...
But you cant deny that oil is selling for what... $63/bbl now, though there is apparently excess crude available?

True, we will be financing new refineries if they go up. But I think itll likely stabilize at $1.90-$2.20/gal in all except inner cities and california.

JMH
 
quote:
Originally posted by Schmoe:
If you look at past performances, it's going to roller coaster like everything else. When ever there is a demand for cheaper products, someone will build it. Even now, oil companies are building new refineries, which is probably the main reason gas is so high. Soon, the refineries will pump out so much gas that the supply will overshadow demand, which will leave a glut in the market and prices will come down. I would say, within the next two years, gas will be at about 1.75 gallon.
Click to expand...
That would be nice, but USA and especially China's increased consumption demands were anticipated. Of course, those are projections and could be incorrect.

If your are correct, the States will see an opportunity to tax it more and probably will do. These legislators have a sharp eye and can use rising or falling gas prices to sneek an added tax in there.
patriot.gif
 
quote:
Originally posted by wavinwayne:

quote:
Originally posted by Schmoe:
....Even now, oil companies are building new refineries, which is probably the main reason gas is so high....
Click to expand...
Huh?
dunno.gif
I didn't think any new refineries had been built in the last 25-30 years in the USA.
Click to expand...
Chevron has never stopped construction and improvements in their refinery operations on the Mississippi Gulf Coast. It's an on-going process. Depends on the definition of new. This is just one example. Continual on-site improvements in technology and capacity.
 
Have you ever watched Mad Money on MSNBC? I forgot the man's name, but he is a stock advisor and had shown that all the oil companies that were building rigs and investing in refineries that their stock is going up,up and up. It's going to be these little companies that will knit-pick these larger comglomerates to death. It's been done by many in the past. Can you say Walmart? Where were they 20 years or so ago when Sears was kicking everybodies butt? This will come full circle again, basic business sense.
I haven't had time to read the whole bill that Bush just sign, but I'm willing to bet that he, despite the tax cuts (hey, he needs something to do AFTER he gets out of the white house) there is probably some language in their that loosens up the Clean Air Act. That's why, Wavinwayne, there have been no new refineries built in this country. Air rules are just to cost prohibitive. Guess where all that business went? Out of here and overseas....whose giving us the most grief? Overseas.....we will have to start refining our own and oil companies know that. Did you read the story a couple of weeks ago that someone said the China demand was a little overkill? Prices went down just a tad for a few days....but wait....what happened now......more excuses. This week it is hurricanes and supply. In about a month it will be the refineries switching over to winter fuel. It's never going to stop, but it will slow down. Bad thing about this, it will take some time. That's why I give it two years.
Haley10...as long as the oil companies in the US are still using their "old plants," they are pretty much exempted from the new requirements of the Clean Air Act (grandfathered), but now have to comply with MACT (maximum achievable control technology). That is the reason for the upgrades, not because they are trying to be nice, but because Uncle Sam mandated them to do so.
 
Boone Pickens is convinced that $3/gallon gas will occur somewhere in the US this year. I'm thinkin since the summer driving season is almost over, it'll be next summer when we see it. Not everywhere in the US, just the usual places where gas is normally way more expensive like Cali. Current national avg. is $2.35 I'll say by next summer it's $2.50, maybe $2.60
 
I look out the window of my office to a station across the street:

87 = 2.499
89 = 2.599
91 = 2.699

87 was 2.219 over the weekend. The end must be near.
 
The oil companies, especially the refiners, have had horrible profits for the past 20 years, horrible return on investment and equity. Only in the past couple of years have oil investors actually started to reap some of the benefits of their long-term investments.

Don't expect them to be rushing to build anything. Building unneeded additional refinery capacity would be a collossal waste of shareholders money, the environment, and the natural resource of crude oil, and petrol is still enormously inexpensive relative to inflation.

When teenagers and college students stop being able to 'afford' to fill their cars with petrol is when petrol prices will be too high. When I was a kid, you didn't drive or own a car until you had a good job. Maybe if you worked a part time job through high school, you could own a used piece of junk that was very basic transportation around town -- these days, every kid thinks it is their 'right' to have a decent car at the age of 16, and a vacation by air every year.
 
And I agree witht the argument that a lack of refining capacity should result in a lower cost per barrel.

Oil, Oil everywhere, and not a barrel to refine.
 
quote:
Originally posted by Steve S:
So far seems everyone is driving around like the gas is free,Lots of brand new trucks and suvs.
Click to expand...
Thats a lot of it... oil companies all the way to the commodities traders and OPEC realize that to joe consumer, its cheaper to fill your guzzler's tank with gas then it is to replace a vehicle, that you very well might owe more than it is worth.

This allows them to raise the price (due to the increased [local] NA demand), and schmuck A and schmuck B can't do a single thing about it but fill up their 40 gal. tank and keep getting 8 mpg... this feeds the cycle.

It was fairly balanced for a long while, but drop in the truck boom of the late 90s and early '00s, and add in Chinas rise, and all of a sudden it all adds up to much higher prices.

I dont know who to thank more, the 8mpg guzzlers, or the Chinese motorized moped drivers.

JMH
 
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