EV credit expiring

[jghall00]

Has anybody been watching the news on CATL's new sodium batteries? Apparently less than half the price of LFP.

I think that is the projected price when production scales. We won't see these in U.S. passenger vehicles any time soon. Even in China, they'll be placed in vehicles at the bottom of the market where the focus is on cost, rather than range. And don't forget, LFP $ / kWh is still declining as well due to production scaling and chemistry improvements. We might see SIB sooner in mixed chemistry packs where they can handle low-temperature energy demands, but I think full SIB in the U.S. is at least 3 years away.

 

[dishdude]

After thinking about this more, I have no interest in pursuing this EV credit. The XTS is running great and with my concerns about the economy I'd prefer to sit on as much cash as I can.

 

[alarmguy]

Yeah, dealers are struggling with EV sales and trying to clear their inventory before the incentive leaves the party. This why lease deals are popping up all over with some really low monthly payments. …

Also keep in mind the dealers are collecting $7500 on every electric vehicle they lease.
This is why the lease deals are so good as they offload access inventory

 

[shortyb]

Also keep in mind the dealers are collecting $7500 on every electric vehicle they lease.
This is why the lease deals are so good as they offload access inventory

Yes. The $7500 incentive is collected by the owner of the car (for a lease, it's usually the manufacturer) and passed to the dealer to be applied as a cap cost reduction. This lowers the overall capitalized cost in the lease, and thus reducing lease cost per month (rent) to the customer.

 

[alarmguy]

Yes. The $7500 incentive is collected by the owner of the car (for a lease, it's usually the manufacturer) and passed to the dealer to be applied as a cap cost reduction. This lowers the overall capitalized cost in the lease, and thus reducing lease cost per month (rent) to the customer.

I think it’s best to say the owner is the finance company that leases the car.

I’m not doubting your statement assuming that’s what you mean by passing the vehicle to a dealer in someway? But there are a lot of leasing companies out there. Large and small, I assume in the thousands? They would get the rebate.
https://www.carleases.org/what-are-the-top-car-leasing-companies-in-the-us/

 

[Chris142]

$5000 down! Screw that!

 

[shortyb]

I think it’s best to say the owner is the finance company that leases the car.

I’m not doubting your statement assuming that’s what you mean by passing the vehicle to a dealer in someway? But there are a lot of leasing companies out there. Large and small, I assume in the thousands? They would get the rebate.
https://www.carleases.org/what-are-the-top-car-leasing-companies-in-the-us/

You are correct. I was generalizing about the process in that quite a few of the finance/lease companies are an arm of the manufacturer. And the incentive goes to whomever the lease company (owner) ends up being, but in turn reduces the overall cap cost by $7500 at the dealer's finance dept. when the deal is inked.

 

[GrumpyCat]

I understand the point you're making, but it's disingenuous to claim that these vehicles are all consuming this much energy to charge when it's highly dependent on the source of the power, which in turn varies by region. We're not powering the grid with diesel generators, as most of the grid is some combination of natural gas and renewables. In addition ,the renewable mix is increasing since that is that is the cheapest source of power. So EVs are getting even cleaner over time. The majority of EVs owners charge at home, because the cost savings for fueling at home are substantial. My power is primarily solar and 90% of my miles are powered by electricity I consume at home.

The point being danced about is how the EV is source-agnostic. Doesn't care if electricity is generated via diesel, nuclear, solar, coal, oil, gas, hydro, slaves turning cranks, or unicorn farts. ICE can not do that.

You seem to be under the presumption that I purchase EVs to maximize energy efficiency. I honestly don't care. I buy them because I save a lot of money on fuel and can mash the throttle and enjoy the instant torque without worrying about paying for it later at the fuel pump. I'm also getting older and don't have the time or patience for routine ICE repairs. So no, I've never done the math to account for grid power generation losses because my pockets only see what I pay for fuel and maintenance and electric was much cheaper than gas.

I bought a Model S in 2013 because there wasn't anything like it.
I bought a Model Y in 2023 because there wasn't anything like it.

 

[walterjay]

Don't need to see parity in energy density. Electrification is over 90% efficient, and ICE throws away more than 60% of the energy content of the fuel.

More than 60% of the energy used for electricity generation is lost in conversion. That is according to the US Energy Information Administration.

 

[Pablo]

More than 60% of the energy used for electricity generation is lost in conversion. That is according to the US Energy Information Administration.

Define conversion. Voltage changes via transformers? Most common.

You mean to heat? To kinetic energy? To DC?

 

[SC Maintenance]

I understand the point you're making, but it's disingenuous to claim that these vehicles are all consuming this much energy to charge when it's highly dependent on the source of the power, which in turn varies by region

Coal is still 15.8% of the power generation. And actually oil is still 0.6%. Nat gas will likely decline long term because at current prices its not really worth drilling for it. We will see if there is a renewed interest in nuclear? https://www.iea.org/countries/united-states/electricity

There are lots of nuances, - but there really are only 3 "regions" - Eastern and Western interconnection and ERCOT. Surprisingly Coal is still a fair bit of the Western interconnect. Its definitely a reasonable amount of the Eastern interconnect also. And ERCOT uses it too. Strange I know, but you really can't say coal isn't used in this or that region, because a lot of it is.

 

[GON]

Agree ... and ... there will be a boatload of used inventory when these vehicles come off lease is 2 to 3 years

With the published cost of oem authorized replacement batteries, I just don’t know how a person can take a risk on a used EV.

I understand a manufacturer may offer a promise on a used EV for battery replacement, but my expense with oem warranty repairs under warranty have been disappointing. OEM with money issues will likely fight tooth and nail replacing the EV batteries.

I do like the COA, if a match for the consumer, of a shorter term EV lease.

 

[JeffKeryk]

With the published cost of oem authorized replacement batteries, I just don’t know how a person can take a risk on a used EV.

I understand a manufacturer may offer a promise on a used EV for battery replacement, but my expense with oem warranty repairs under warranty have been disappointing. OEM with money issues will likely fight tooth and nail replacing the EV batteries.

I do like the COA, if a match for the consumer, of a shorter term EV lease.

With the cost of an EV battery replacement, I would check the statistics of the EV in question.

 

[GON]

With the cost of an EV battery replacement, I would check the statistics of the EV in question.

I could see with some oem like ford, simply not supporting battery replacement post original manufacturer warranty. Ford has a track record of non stop part revisions in their products, making even third party replacements questionable.

 

[shortyb]

With the published cost of oem authorized replacement batteries, I just don’t know how a person can take a risk on a used EV.

Couple that with the high residual in these "cheap" leases and there will be a glut of 2-3 year old EVs coming off lease that no one will touch because of the fear of that costly battery replacement. Or someone will wait for the prices to bottom out on a used one and drive it until the battery needs replacing, then dump it. Then what? EV boneyards. Is there room at Yucca Mountain for some toasted EV batteries?

 

[Trav]

With the published cost of oem authorized replacement batteries, I just don’t know how a person can take a risk on a used EV.

I understand a manufacturer may offer a promise on a used EV for battery replacement, but my expense with oem warranty repairs under warranty have been disappointing. OEM with money issues will likely fight tooth and nail replacing the EV batteries.

I do like the COA, if a match for the consumer, of a shorter term EV lease.

Thank you GON! I had the chance to buy a 2016 Model S with low miles, no accidents, one original owner, etc from a extended family member for 16K which normally would be a great deal if it were for a car in the same price class like a MB S class but this was just out of warranty meaning a battery would be 23K and new drive unit over 20K. This thing was a disaster just waiting to happen.
The problem is if the battery fails under warranty Tesla replaces it with a reman with no extension of the original warranty.
Leasing an ev is the only way I would ever even consider having one if I were in the market. IMO you have to be a few fries short of a happy meal to buy it outright. The battery was always a problem with electric vehicles from the early 20th century to present day.