EV Cradle to Grave emissions

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OVERKILL

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The Union of Concerned Scientists produced a report back in 2015 (attached) that analyzes the cradle to grave emissions of EV's, something that isn't new, there have been a ton of reports produced that delve into what mileage payback for initial manufacturing (which has a notably higher emissions intensity than a comparable gas vehicle) is, typically relative to some average grid emissions profile, which isn't easy for Average Joe or Jane to understand. This report is different. They used emissions intensity for each source to calculate Mpg equivalent figures so you can get a very good idea as to what an EV gets, in emissions equivalent, relative to its gas counterpart.

Now, they don't appear to be using the IPCC figures, as hydro is shown to have lower emission than nuclear and wind (the IPCC has hydro double that of those two sources) however the metric is otherwise quite sound.

This is the table from page 7:
Screen Shot 2021-03-12 at 4.46.26 PM.png


So, if your grid is dominated by coal, like most parts of Australia, which has an emissions intensity of 820gCO2/kWh, an EV offers an equivalent emissions footprint of a gas car that gets 29Mpg. So you'd reduce local pollution, but you are just moving the emissions from the tailpipe to the smokestack.

If your grid is dominated by gas or has a mix that results in an overall emissions profile similar to gas, which is 490gCO2/kWh, you are roughly the equivalent of a Prius at 58Mpg equivalent. Not great.

If you manage to somehow charge your car exclusively with solar (not factoring in emissions from a net metered scenario) then you'd have 350Mpg equivalent, which is a very significant improvement.

Then we get into the ultra-low emissions stuff: Nuclear, wind and hydro. So if your grid was dominated by nuclear and hydro (Ontario) or hydro with some wind (Quebec) the avoided emissions with an EV are incredible. Not only do you reduce local air pollution, but you greatly reduce your overall emissions footprint as well.

So, as an environmental action, if you live where the grid is extremely clean and you have a two car household where one of the vehicles is a viable candidate to be swapped out with an EV, this is an extremely low effort, effective and simple way to massively reduce your household emissions footprint. If you live where the grid is not clean an EV offers very little over a very efficient gasoline vehicle in terms of household emissions reduction.
 

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I always wonder about how many components are included in calculations.
An extreme component would be wars fought for a country's interests (aka oil).
Wars tend to create a lot of emmissions and destruction.

Are things like this included? Are they appropriate to be included?
This is only 1 example; I'msure there are many many more.
 
I always wonder about how many components are included in calculations.
An extreme component would be wars fought for a country's interests (aka oil).
Wars tend to create a lot of emmissions and destruction.

Are things like this included? Are they appropriate to be included?
This is only 1 example; I'msure there are many many more.
On this forum they (wars: politics) are explicitly outside of what is allowed for consideration and discussion, which reflects the mindset driving energy policy in this country.
 
Seems preposterous for them to suggest (or selectively ignore that) the fuels aren't more involved in the production, deployment, and maintenance of solar, nuclear, wind, and hydro.

Where are so many things coming from today including over half the world's steel? China. Who is building coal plants faster than ever before? You won't need a 2nd guess.

If only a way to scrub CO2, grew on trees. Oh wait, it does.
 
One of the great aspects of battery vehicles is that they can derive their power source from so many different types of power generation. This makes them a bit more future-proof in that the sourcing of cleaner energy is only going to get better as each year passes.

I also wonder if such calculations take into account that battery vehicles lose energy just sitting there parked. In the order of a percent or two a day. Leave a gas car parked for 30 days and you still have pretty much 100% of the energy left over. Park a Tesla for 30 days and you might have lost 30-60% of your power?
 
Seems preposterous for them to suggest (or selectively ignore that) the fuels aren't more involved in the production, deployment, and maintenance of solar, nuclear, wind, and hydro.
They don't, that's what lifecycle emissions (per the IPCC) are. They include mining, refining, transport, construction...etc. Now, there ARE assumptions made about lifespan. IIRC, the lifecycle emission for nuclear are based on a 30 year operating period, so the longer you operate the plant, the lower that figure is going to go, same goes for hydro. Both nuclear and hydro have the ability to run much longer than the lifecycle calculation assumptions are based on, so the per kWh footprint is lower for older assets. Pickering A just turned 50 for example here in Ontario, Pickering B is 38, Darlington is 31, Bruce A is 44, Bruce B is 36.
 
I always wonder about how many components are included in calculations.
An extreme component would be wars fought for a country's interests (aka oil).
Wars tend to create a lot of emmissions and destruction.

Are things like this included? Are they appropriate to be included?
This is only 1 example; I'msure there are many many more.
Well, what would they fine Jeff if he killed a Bald Eagle ?

https://www.livescience.com/31995-h...ch,golden eagles. [ In Photos: Birds of Prey]

36A265D5-794F-40C7-B1EE-DF528E73E69A.webp
 
I always wonder about how many components are included in calculations.
An extreme component would be wars fought for a country's interests (aka oil).
Wars tend to create a lot of emmissions and destruction.

Are things like this included? Are they appropriate to be included?
This is only 1 example; I'msure there are many many more.

No, war isn't included.

Lifecycle emissions for a given mode of generation and C2G for cars is based on the emission produced during the creation of the raw materials, construction of the components, assembly of the final product, transport of that product and then operation and then decommissioning.

So nuclear and hydro have some rather significant embedded emissions as part of their construction due to the use of massive amounts of steel, rebar and concrete. A wind turbine uses a fair bit of rebar and concrete for its base and lots of steel, copper...etc in the generator itself. Solar panels use a lot of steel for the mounts, frames...etc as well as the various processes to produce the components themselves. This is offset by emissions produced during operation. Nuclear creates a small stream of supply side emissions in the production and processing of the fuel, but because it is 20,000x more energy dense than fossil fuels, and has no direct emissions, the overall emissions footprint is extremely low. Hydro produces methane as a byproduct of the areas it floods, which is an ongoing process over its lifespan. Wind and solar produce no direct emissions, but solar's output is horrifically low, which is why its emissions are much higher than the other sources mentioned (and its emissions profile would be worse for less sunny locations) and wind turbines consume oils and greases as part of their operation, which I assume is factored in as well.

IIRC, the IPCC is also a bit generous for the lifespan of wind at 25 years (we've not gotten 20 years out of ours up here, the one at Pickering went down at 18).
 
I also wonder if such calculations take into account that battery vehicles lose energy just sitting there parked. In the order of a percent or two a day. Leave a gas car parked for 30 days and you still have pretty much 100% of the energy left over. Park a Tesla for 30 days and you might have lost 30-60% of your power?

I don't believe so. It's based on consumption during use: miles driven and the emissions footprint of generating the electricity that is being used to take the vehicle that distance, factoring in charging and transmission losses...etc.
 
They don't, that's what lifecycle emissions (per the IPCC) are. They include mining, refining, transport, construction...etc.

Except claiming it and numbers that accurately reflect it, are not aligned. There are shenanigans involved.

Even on your picture, see note 1: "Power plant construction emissions are also included; they are the only emissions associated with solar, wind, geothermal, and hydro sources.". B]. There's mining, refining, manufacturing, shipping, installation, maintenance, and too many other ancillary contributors to list, that they did not include. They can state they did all day long, yet they didn't.

Whether it is their inability to calculate it, or selectively choosing to omit it, either way it is a show stopper in their producing this faux-data, faux arguments and conclusions, until wind, geothermal, hyrdro and solar, magically grow on trees transported by seed to all needed areas through bird feces, can grow everywhere, tap themselves into a grid they built to the tree, maintain themeselves and it, and stay hidden so humans don't get involved in their oversight.

It's a propaganda attempt at best.
 
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This is kinda the crux of my curiosity. What is included in calculations?
Are some being omitted? Are others incorrectly included or over empahsized?
Probably both. It boggles the mind.

In the analytics I have worked on and modeled, we learn as we go.
Some of the things we consider end up being less important, especially as we solve related issues.
Which only gives way to far harder questions.

Did I say it boggles the mind?
 
Except claiming it and numbers that accurately reflect it, are not aligned. There are shenanigans involved.

Even on your picture, see note 1: "Power plant construction emissions are also included; they are the only emissions associated with solar, wind, geothermal, and hydro sources.". B]. There's mining, refining, manufacturing, shipping, installation, maintenance, and too many other ancillary contributors to list, that they did not include. They can state they did all day long, yet they didn't.

Whether it is their inability to calculate it, or selectively choosing to omit it, either way it is a show stopper in their producing this faux-data, faux arguments and conclusions, until wind, geothermal, hyrdro and solar, magically grow on trees transported by seed to all needed areas through bird feces, can grow everywhere, tap themselves into a grid they built to the tree, maintain themeselves and it, and stay hidden so humans don't get involved in their oversight.

It's a propaganda attempt at best.

This is why it is beneficial to read the entire report rather than just the graphic I included in the OP.

They use the EPA figures for lifecycle emissions in the paper, which as I noted in the OP, differ a bit from the IPCC figures, but the results are still the same. They also factor in transmission loss and upstream emissions.

This is the methodology employed for calculating the Mpg equivalent figure:
Conversion of g/kWh to MPGghg
To translate electricity-related emissions intensity into driving-related emissions intensity (measured as gasoline miles-per-gallon equivalent, or MPGghg), we multiplied the EPA emissions intensity values (gCO2e/kWh) from Table A-2 and the EV average efficiency values (kWh/mile) from Table 2, resulting in a gCO2e/mile estimate. Then we used the GREET carbon intensity of gasoline (ANL 2014a) and divided by the gCO2e/mile estimate to get the estimated MPGghg for each region. This figure is an electric vehicle equivalent to the MPG of a gasoline-powered vehicle: vehicles with the same MPGghg will produce the same amount of global warming pollution for each mile traveled, regardless of fuel type.

This is the table:
Screen Shot 2021-03-13 at 6.39.56 PM.png


Note that like the IPCC, the EPA uses gCO2/kWh.
Our formula is X/(Y*Z)*1000=MPHghg
X = 9
Y = gCO2/kWh
Z = kWh/mile

Using the IPCC figures:
If we use coal at 820gCO2/kWh:
9/(820*0.33)*1000=33MPGghg

If we use nuclear at 12gCO2/kWh:
9/(12*0.33)*1000=2,272MPGghg

If we use wind at 11gCO2/kWh:
9/(11*0.33)*1000=2,479MPGghg

If we use solar at 45gCO2/kWh:
9/(45*0.33)*1000=606MPGghg

If we use hydro at 24gCO2/kWh:
9/(24*0.33)*100=1,136MPGghg

You can see where the figures used by the EPA differ from the figures provided by the IPCC for coal, hydro and solar.

I've attached the IPCC report where their figures come from. Per page 538 through 540 we see the following emphasis stated:
When assessing the potential of different mitigation opportunities, it is important to evaluate the options from a lifecycle perspective to take into account the emissions in the fuel chain and the manufacturing of the energy conversion technology (Annex II.6.3). This section contains a review of life-cycle GHG emissions associated with different energy supply technologies per unit of final energy delivered, with a focus on electricity generation (Figure 7.6).

*snip*

Renewable heat and power generation and nuclear energy can bring more significant reductions in GHG emissions. The information provided here has been updated from the data provided in SRREN, taking into account new findings and reviews, where available. The ranges of harmonized lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions reported in the literature are 18 – 180 gCO2eq / kWh for PV (Kim et al., 2012; Hsu et al., 2012), 9 – 63 gCO2eq / kWh for CSP (Burkhardt et al., 2012), and 4 – 110 gCO2eq / kWh for nuclear power (Warner and Heath, 2012). The harmonization has narrowed the ranges down from 5 – 217 gCO2eq / kWh for PV, 7 – 89 gCO2eq / kWh for CSP, and 1 – 220 gCO2eq / kWh for nuclear energy. A new literature review for wind power published since 2002 reports 7 – 56 gCO2eq / kWh, where the upper part of the range is associated with smaller turbines (< 100kW) (Arvesen and Hertwich, 2012), compared to 2 – 81 gCO2eq / kWh reported in SRREN. For all of these technologies, at least five studies are reviewed.

*snip*
For RE, emissions are mainly associated with the manufacturing and installation of the power plants, but for nuclear power, uranium enrichment can be significant (Warner and Heath, 2012). Generally, the ranges are quite wide reflecting differences in local resource conditions, technology, and methodological choices of the assessment. The lower end of estimates often reflects incomplete systems while the higher end reflects poor local conditions or outdated technology.

Specifically on hydro:
The climate effect of hydropower is very project-specific. Lifecycle emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production related to the construction and operation of hydropower stations reported in the literature fall in the range of up to 40 gCO2eq / kWh for the studies reviewed in the SRREN (Kumar et al, 2011) and 3 – 7 gCO2eq / kWh for studies reviewed in (Dones et al., 2007). Emissions of biogenic CH4 result from the degradation of organic carbon primarily in hydropower reservoirs (Tremblay et al., 2005; Barros et al., 2011; Demarty and Bastien, 2011), although some reservoirs act as sinks (Chanudet et. al 2011). Few studies appraise net emissions from freshwater reservoirs, i. e., adjusting for pre-existing natural sources and sinks and unrelated anthropogenic sources (Kumar et al, 2011, Section 5.6.3.2). A recent meta-analysis of 80 reservoirs indicates that CH4 emission factors are log-normally distributed, with the majority of measurements being below 20 gCO2eq / kWh (Hertwich, 2013), but emissions of approximately 2 kgCO2eq / kWh coming from a few reservoirs with a large area in relation to electricity production and thus low power intensity (W / m2) (Abril et al., 2005; Kemenes et al., 2007, 2011). The global average emission rate was estimated to be 70 gCO2eq / kWh (Maeck et al., 2013; Hertwich, 2013). Due to the high variability among power stations, the average emissions rate is not suitable for the estimation of emissions of individual countries or projects. Ideas for mitigating existing methane emissions have been presented (Ramos et al., 2009; Stolaroff et al., 2012).

And finally:
The literature reviewed in this section shows that a range of technologies can provide electricity with less than 5 % of the lifecycle GHG emissions of coal power: wind, solar, nuclear, and hydropower in suitable locations. In the future, further reductions of lifecycle emissions on these technologies could be attained through performance improvements (Caduff et al., 2012; Dale and Benson, 2013) and as a result of a cleaner energy supply in the manufacturing of the technologies (Arvesen and Hertwich, 2011).

Use of critical metals is also covered in the table on page 545:
Screen Shot 2021-03-13 at 7.46.22 PM.png


Followed by this statement:
7.9.2 Environmental and health effects

Energy supply options differ with regard to their overall environmental and health impacts, not only their GHG emissions (Table 7.3). Renewable energies are often seen as environmentally benign by nature; however, no technology — particularly in large scale application— comes without environmental impacts. To evaluate the relative burden of energy systems within the environment, full energy supply chains need to be considered on a lifecycle basis, including all system components, and across all impact categories.

And finally:
Wind, ocean, and CSP need more iron and cement than fossil fuel fired power plants, while photovoltaic power relies on a range of scarce materials (Burkhardt et al., 2011; Graedel, 2011; Kleijn et al., 2011; Arvesen and Hertwich, 2011). Furthermore, mining and material processing is associated with environmental impacts (Norgate et al., 2007), which make a substantial contribution to the total life-cycle impacts of renewable power systems. There has been a significant concern about the availability of critical metals and the environmental impacts associated with their production. Silver, tellurium, indium, and gallium have been identified as metals potentially constraining the choice of PV technology, but not presenting a fundamental obstacle to PV deployment (Graedel, 2011; Zuser and Rechberger, 2011; Fthenakis and Anctil, 2013; Ravikumar and Malghan, 2013). Silver is also a concern for CSP (Pihl et al., 2012). The limited availability of rare earth elements used to construct powerful permanent magnets, especially dysprosium and neodymium, may limit the application of efficient direct-drive wind turbines (Hoenderdaal et al., 2013). Recycling is necessary to ensure the long-term supply of critical metals and may also reduce environmental impacts compared to virgin materials (Anctil and Fthenakis, 2013; Binnemans et al., 2013). With improvements in the performance of renewable energy systems in recent years, their specific material demand and environmental impacts have also declined (Arvesen and Hertwich, 2011; Caduff et al., 2012).

Clearly, ALL of the lifecycle footprint is included in the IPCC figures and I expect is included in those provided by the EPA, which were used in the report I provided here, even if the author didn't go to sufficient lengths to spell it out to your satisfaction.
 

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No, war isn't included.

Lifecycle emissions for a given mode of generation and C2G for cars is based on the emission produced during the creation of the raw materials, construction of the components, assembly of the final product, transport of that product and then operation and then decommissioning.

So nuclear and hydro have some rather significant embedded emissions as part of their construction due to the use of massive amounts of steel, rebar and concrete. A wind turbine uses a fair bit of rebar and concrete for its base and lots of steel, copper...etc in the generator itself. Solar panels use a lot of steel for the mounts, frames...etc as well as the various processes to produce the components themselves. This is offset by emissions produced during operation. Nuclear creates a small stream of supply side emissions in the production and processing of the fuel, but because it is 20,000x more energy dense than fossil fuels, and has no direct emissions, the overall emissions footprint is extremely low. Hydro produces methane as a byproduct of the areas it floods, which is an ongoing process over its lifespan. Wind and solar produce no direct emissions, but solar's output is horrifically low, which is why its emissions are much higher than the other sources mentioned (and its emissions profile would be worse for less sunny locations) and wind turbines consume oils and greases as part of their operation, which I assume is factored in as well.

IIRC, the IPCC is also a bit generous for the lifespan of wind at 25 years (we've not gotten 20 years out of ours up here, the one at Pickering went down at 18).
Stupid question: How is the cost of oil factored in? What costs are included in the calculation?
This is what boggles my mind. Where do you draw the line?
 
What happens when you factor in cars that get better than 29 MPG? Honda's hybrid Accord gets near 50, Toyota's Camry hybrid betters 50MPG, as do the Prius and Ionic.

One glaring omission is the additional fuel used by peaker plants to supplement wind and solar. The claim that 60 or 61% of our power is "fossil fuel" based is incorrect. We'd need to eliminate the 1000 or so peaker plants nationwide to get a more accurate number. But the bottom line is that solar and wind drive up fuel use in some locations.

A mystery, Peaker plants are responsible for utilities using more natural gas than ever:

https://cleanenergy.org/blog/southeast-gas-peaking-plant-spike/
 
Again, I'm going to have to add that automotive travel uses less than 15% of our national energy use. EV's don't solve the energy use issue and in fact, may not help at all. Heating and powering homes and businesses in the North East sector is the single largest energy consumer.

EV's and hybrids are roughly equal with regard to regenerative braking (a fudge factor used in calculating efficiency). In fact, CO2 emissions between EV's and modern Hybrids (not the 29 MPG kind) are not as different as it may at first seem when it comes to overall energy use.

And, "IF" for example we consider nuclear as a fuel consumed, then EV's can fall short of modern hybrids with regard to fuel used per mile.

In general, a Camry Hybrid is a more efficient choice when it comes to energy consumption.
 
What happens when you factor in cars that get better than 29 MPG? Honda's hybrid Accord gets near 50, Toyota's Camry hybrid betters 50MPG, as do the Prius and Ionic.

One glaring omission is the additional fuel used by peaker plants to supplement wind and solar. The claim that 60 or 61% of our power is "fossil fuel" based is incorrect. We'd need to eliminate the 1000 or so peaker plants nationwide to get a more accurate number. But the bottom line is that solar and wind drive up fuel use in some locations.

A mystery, Peaker plants are responsible for utilities using more natural gas than ever:

https://cleanenergy.org/blog/southeast-gas-peaking-plant-spike/
They are using "average" emissions intensity. Typically you wouldn't be charging an EV during periods of peak demand, so that's probably fine.

And you've nailed it on the high efficiency cars, that's why I noted that you have to have a very green grid for EV's to make sense from an environmental perspective, otherwise it's just an epic virtue signal.
 
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