Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by PimTac
Originally Posted by hatt
We aren't going to know how this virus is doing until it gets going in other counties beside China. The long period between infection and symptoms is pretty scary. There are a lot of cases out there.



It is spreading. The biggest problem will be in countries like Vietnam who has already reported a case, Philippines, Thailand etc. who do not have the resources to manage the disease. People travel by all kinds of means and this will be the big issue.

Japan, Australia, Canada and such will handle it better.


True.
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Originally Posted by Mr Nice
Places like the Philippines would be a disaster with so many people in a small area.




True. Most SE Asia countries are like that. Another problem is that someone can fly into a hub city then take various modes of transportation to get to their destination. Ferries, buses, private van services etc. It starts to get complicated and by the time the hospital in the province figures it is corona a lot of spreading has occurred.

That's why I mentioned the thermal scanners at airports. They have been there for about 10 years now. These are not the handheld thermometers we see the Chinese using, these are cameras. Are they fail safe? No but they do catch probables. I've seen passengers being taken aside for questioning.
 
Update from the Globe and Mail here in Canada:
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/wor...authorities-used-refrigerating-strategy/

Key excerpts:
Originally Posted by G&M
As Chinese authorities widened a massive urban lockdown and flew large numbers of medical personnel to Wuhan, the epicentre of a new SARS-like virus, medical authorities provided new indications that weeks of inaction had allowed the virus to spread widely before serious measures were taken.

Chinese authorities initially reported that the new 2019-nCoV coronavirus had most seriously affected the elderly and those left vulnerable by pre-existing health conditions.

But an academic study published by Chinese researchers in The Lancet on Friday found that of the first 41 confirmed cases of the virus, which causes pneumonia-like symptoms, "less than half had underlying diseases." Nearly half were 49 years of age or younger. And a third had not been exposed to the wild animal market identified as the source of virus, suggesting that even from the earliest days, it had begun to leap between people.

Fifteen per cent of those first 41 people died.


Originally Posted by G&M
The first of the patients was admitted to hospital on Dec. 16, more than a month before Chinese authorities began to lock down Wuhan and neighbouring cities in Hubei province.

On Sunday, President Xi Jinping said China was facing a "grave situation" as the country over 2,000 confirmed cases and the death toll rose to 56, overshadowing celebrations of the Lunar New Year that began on Saturday.

Nearly all of Hubei, with a population of 58 million, was under some form of lockdown, with authorities halting most forms of transportation and barring entry and exit to at least 15 cities. New cases have also been confirmed in Canada, Malaysia, Australia, Nepal, France, Singapore and the U.S.


Originally Posted by G&M
Now, new evidence is emerging that officials in Wuhan deliberately downplayed the virus, even after formally notifying the World Health Organization on Dec. 31 about what the WHO described as "a cluster of cases of pneumonia of unknown cause."

But the Wuhan government took a "refrigerating strategy" in the early days of the viral spread, a doctor at Wuhan Union Hospital told China News Weekly. Medical staff were banned from speaking publicly about what was taking place or accepting media interviews, the doctor said.

Police in Wuhan also said in early January that they had arrested eight people for spreading "rumours" about what was then a little-understood pneumonia affecting a growing number of people.

Another person claiming to be a Wuhan physician wrote to the National Health Commission this week claiming that doctors in the city were told not to report "viral pneumonia" in their imaging reports between Jan. 12 and Jan. 16 — a period during which local officials delivered sunny reports on a local situation under control. That meant that, during a crucial period in which cases were accumulating, local health-care workers were unable to properly raise the alarm, the person wrote.


Originally Posted by G&M
A doctor at Wuhan's Hubei Xinhua hospital has now died from the virus, state media reported Saturday morning. The death of Liang Wudong, 62, comes amid widespread reports of a large number of unreported cases of medical staff infected by the virus, and accusations that an improper dissemination of information kept those treating the ill from taking proper precautions themselves.

A second paper published in The Lancet on Friday provided evidence that the virus can be transmitted from a person who is not showing symptoms of being ill.


Originally Posted by G&M
But even top officials with the Communist Party acknowledged that their efforts have yet to halt the progression of the virus.

The virus "has not been blocked, and it is spreading," Sun Chunlan, a Politburo member who is deputy prime minister of the State Council, the country's Cabinet, said in remarks reported by state media. She called for an even greater "sense of responsibility and urgency."
 
Classic China right there. It's a lot tougher for the rest of the world to get a handle on this stuff when they're weeks behind where they could have been.
 
Originally Posted by Snagglefoot
Just by coincidence 28 Days Later was on TV tonight.
crazy2.gif


Survival kit......

[Linked Image]
 
Originally Posted by spackard
If you only want to see the 1000 bed hospital construction, that's a 1 minute video.
Supposed to be in operation Feb 3 (it's a dirt lot now).
I don't see how the concrete can cure, never mind completing all the other layers of construction, by then.
China did it before, a decade ago or longer, when SARS hit. They use modular "buildings" to speed up the building process and most likely run 24 hours a day.

Originally Posted by spackard
Personal anecdote: Spotted a LAX shuttle van, with Chinese-language writing on the side, transporting
passengers, on the fwy today. Driver was wearing a surgical mask.
9-10 years ago when the "swine flu" was hitting hard, I had to take one of our kids to the ER (she fell). The waiting room was FULL of people with flu symptoms and almost everyone waiting was wearing those silly, paper masks. One of the nurses asked me if I'd like one for myself and our daughter, to which I replied, "what good are they ? None of you are wearing them." She laughed. Then she told me I might want to go to an area outside of the main waiting room until they were ready for us, to avoid being around the others.
 
Originally Posted by Mad_Hatter
Originally Posted by Snagglefoot
Just by coincidence 28 Days Later was on TV tonight.
crazy2.gif


Survival kit......



That might be a bit of overkill. I think maybe goggles and masks might be enough and not touching your eyes/nose before washing your hands.

According to this article R0 is similar to Sars and Mers but I think they're just using preliminary data. It'd be much worse if it were something like measles which is more easily spread. I think the main danger is that it can be spread by people that show no symptoms.

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/how-new-wuhan-coronavirus-stacks-up-against-sars-mers
 
Originally Posted by hallstevenson
9-10 years ago when the "swine flu" was hitting hard, I had to take one of our kids to the ER (she fell). The waiting room was FULL of people with flu symptoms and almost everyone waiting was wearing those silly, paper masks. One of the nurses asked me if I'd like one for myself and our daughter, to which I replied, "what good are they ? None of you are wearing them." She laughed. Then she told me I might want to go to an area outside of the main waiting room until they were ready for us, to avoid being around the others.


I believe the point of them was to stop people from spreading a virus, not that it would make you safe from it. That's why the nurse wasn't wearing one, not sick. The sick were wearing them to stop other people from getting sick. Effectiveness of them is questionable though.
 
Originally Posted by Driz
https://youtu.be/VLp8CHeKQkI


Here's a short video of an American living in China and his assessment . Interesting comments on the traditional WET MARKETS.


Thanks for sharing, that guy offers some great insight (funny youtube name as well for frequent China travelers). Over the last 5 years or so, I've spent about a year of it in Asia--with most of that time in China and Taiwan. Everything that guy says is spot on with respect to China.

The fact that this occurred right before the holiday makes it several orders of magnitude more scary. Unless you've been there to witness the mass of migration, or the sheer density of population in cities that almost no one in the US has ever heard of, it's really hard to imagine. This is one time where their hyper-efficient transportation system if going to have some unintended consequences.
 
US has their confirmed #3 (Orange County), #4 (LA County), and #5 (Maricopa County, AZ) cases.
 
Originally Posted by Driz
https://youtu.be/VLp8CHeKQkI

Here's a short video of an American living in China and his assessment . Interesting comments on the traditional WET MARKETS.


Another reason why never to eat street food in those countries. They look great when a celebrity chef is doing it on TV, not so much when you're in the bathroom for the next two days.
 
Originally Posted by Jackson_Slugger
Did anyone else read the novel World War Z? (not the stupid movie)...


Only saw the movie. Are you able to briefly summarize the novel ?
 
My wife is flipping out over this. She's wanting to stock up on medical supplies, cancel family trips (that stay within the SE USA), and extensively disinfect everything. She's worrying me more than the virus.
 
Originally Posted by RDY4WAR
My wife is flipping out over this. She's wanting to stock up on medical supplies, cancel family trips (that stay within the SE USA), and extensively disinfect everything. She's worrying me more than the virus.


And you should.
 
It wouldn't surprise me if China was intentionally downplaying the transmission and severity of the virus. They are communists after all, and they've done it before with the SARS outbreak in 2002. Idk... I'm just not getting alarmed about it at this point.
 
Originally Posted by Jackson_Slugger
Did anyone else read the novel World War Z? (not the stupid movie)...


Yep, but now I have to re-read it!

Originally Posted by LoneRanger
Originally Posted by Jackson_Slugger
Did anyone else read the novel World War Z? (not the stupid movie)...


Only saw the movie. Are you able to briefly summarize the novel ?


The book is about Max Brooks interviewing survivors of the zombie plague 20 years after the end of the war. The zombie war started in China, China then starts a military conflict with Taiwan (sound familiar?
wink.gif
) to cover up their attempts at containing the outbreak.

Originally Posted by RDY4WAR
My wife is flipping out over this. She's wanting to stock up on medical supplies, cancel family trips (that stay within the SE USA), and extensively disinfect everything. She's worrying me more than the virus.


My wife is as well... she's also pregnant, so I'm glad she is. I want a healthy family and baby snuggles.
 
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