China will make just 2% of most advanced chips by 2032, report says

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China will make just 2% of most advanced chips by 2032, report says

U.S. set to triple its semiconductor manufacturing capacity due to CHIPS Act
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U.S. set to triple its semiconductor manufacturing capacity due to CHIPS Act

I'm skeptical but it they're moving in the right direction.
 
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China doesn't make advanced chips do they? Can they even do 10 nanometer at all? They make the chips that go in your smart blender.

Advanced chips - for like military and Aerospace - are made by USA, Taiwan, and S. Korea I thought?
 
You can't cut corners with the kind of technology that gets you 5nm and below and my guess is even if China could produce some, there yields and QC would be horrendous, like most of the things they produce.
 
I dont trust forecasts. Never underestimate the communist party. Sooner or later Taiwan will be back under control of the mainland as Hong Kong is now. There is your chip percentages back for China
Im glad we are taking this seriously for our country though.
 
alarmguy said:
I dont trust forecasts. Never underestimate the communist party. Sooner or later Taiwan will be back under control of the mainland as Hong Kong is now. There is your chip percentages back for China
Im glad we are taking this seriously for our country though.
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Assuming that happened, the expertise would flee, and they wouldn't have access to equipment, chip design or raw materials. TSC makes the chips, they don't design them or make the equipment.

There production would look much like Venezuelan oil production under complete communist control. Of course the rest of us would be without chips for a while also - which is why there investing so heavily in production in the USA. Globalism is over.

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SC Maintenance said:
Assuming that happened, the expertise would flee, and they wouldn't have access to equipment, chip design or raw materials. TSC makes the chips, they don't design them or make the equipment.

There production would look much like Venezuelan oil production under complete communist control. Of course the rest of us would be without chips for a while also - which is why there investing so heavily in production in the USA. Globalism is over.

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I understand what you are saying but why would companies look elsewhere? (except for military) IF the cost savings is there, after all everything is produced in China now why would chips be different? Meaning they already produce a significant amount on the mainland, throw in the possibility of Taiwan.
Im not really debating just reasoning why I say I dont trust forecasts. BCG can be as wrong as anyone. Anything in the world theater can change. I wish I could trust them and the world market, after all then we just have to invest in the companies making them.
China took over the world manufacturing base under communism, countries on both sides fail.
 
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alarmguy said:
I understand what you are saying but why would companies look elsewhere? (except for military) IF the cost savings is there, after all everything is produced in China now why would chips be different? Meaning they already produce a significant amount on the mainland, throw in the possibility of Taiwan.
Im not really debating just reasoning why I say I dont trust forecasts. BCG can be as wrong as anyone. Anything in the world theater can change. I wish I could trust them and the world market, after all then we just have to invest in the companies making them.
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Well, assuming they could keep it running (which I don't believe they could) - the reasons would be geopolitical.

For example - no one doing business with the US government could buy them. So Amazon couldn't buy their chips for their AI projects if they wanted to continue selling cloud service to the Pentagon. As one of many examples.

Its already this way in a lot of cases. Like I said China makes chips for toys and smart refrigerators.

But your correct - future projections are simply a guess. My guess is China doesn't want to take Taiwan. They want everyone to fear they will take Taiwan. Of course if things get too froggy in China over other issues, then the CCP might do crazy things.
 
SC Maintenance said:
Well, assuming they could keep it running (which I don't believe they could) - the reasons would be geopolitical.

For example - no one doing business with the US government could buy them. So Amazon couldn't buy their chips for their AI projects if they wanted to continue selling cloud service to the Pentagon. As one of many examples.

Its already this way in a lot of cases. Like I said China makes chips for toys and smart refrigerators.

But your correct - future projections are simply a guess. My guess is China doesn't want to take Taiwan. They want everyone to fear they will take Taiwan. Of course if things get too froggy in China over other issues, then the CCP might do crazy things.
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Good conversation! It's a REALLY interesting subject and one I just re-read. Most the world regards Taiwan as a renegade republic that actually formed on the mainland in 1911. I forgot back in the 70s Taiwan was no longer represented in the UN.
Honestly never knew as much as I just learned other than Taiwan was never and will never be given status as a country. Taiwan formed to one day take back the mainland.
Much like Hong Kong never was and now for all intents is under the control of the mainland, even if they still present as independent.

www.historynet.com

Is Taiwan a Country? Why the US and China Are So Worked Up Over the Island

Why is China firing live missiles right now? And are we at the verge of a new war? Here's why the little island at the center of it means so much.
www.historynet.com www.historynet.com

Anyway, I better get anyway from this computer for now *LOL*
 
Military likely use "specialty" chips that are made with mature and proven technology or commodity stuff you can buy from everywhere.

What most likely China would do is 1) commodity chips they can easily make for their own market instead of export (DRAM, NAND, RISC V). This would likely cost slightly more than the latest commodity from SK, US, or Taiwan, but that money is kept in their own economy and help reinvest into their future growth and 2) advanced technology they cannot make with good yield and be competitive with international market products. They may make some great chips at low yield and therefore high cost, so they will be able to keep their other industry alive without foreign chips (Huawei in particular, maybe other AI house like Baidu, etc). They likely have to rely more on redesigning frequently to keep up instead of less frequent update (i.e. using ASIC instead of FPGA in their cellular equipment and keep replacing boards, instead of using FPGA and just reprogram it frequently). 3) They may focus on packaging instead of lithography (node size) to gain back some lost advantage. I read a report that said AI chip cost more in HBM and silicon interposer than the GPU die. HBM and silicon interposer may be made at high cost in China but they cannot make the latest GPU die without EUV equipment from ASML, so they likely would just spend more to "catch up" this way.

In the end it will impact the profitability of other companies, especially those with US ownership, as trade war casualty (Micron likely being the #1).
 
SwampSurvivor said:
I wonder if that's what Micron is going to be producing in central NY?
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Not likely. Their processes are tuned for memory. Same with SK Hynix. When those companies make in-house ASICs and SOCs, they most likely have to go to TSMC or possibly Samsung. I suppose they could use their own processes, but it wouldn’t make sense.
 
PandaBear said:
Military likely use "specialty" chips that are made with mature and proven technology or commodity stuff you can buy from everywhere.

What most likely China would do is 1) commodity chips they can easily make for their own market instead of export (DRAM, NAND, RISC V). This would likely cost slightly more than the latest commodity from SK, US, or Taiwan, but that money is kept in their own economy and help reinvest into their future growth and 2) advanced technology they cannot make with good yield and be competitive with international market products. They may make some great chips at low yield and therefore high cost, so they will be able to keep their other industry alive without foreign chips (Huawei in particular, maybe other AI house like Baidu, etc). They likely have to rely more on redesigning frequently to keep up instead of less frequent update (i.e. using ASIC instead of FPGA in their cellular equipment and keep replacing boards, instead of using FPGA and just reprogram it frequently). 3) They may focus on packaging instead of lithography (node size) to gain back some lost advantage. I read a report that said AI chip cost more in HBM and silicon interposer than the GPU die. HBM and silicon interposer may be made at high cost in China but they cannot make the latest GPU die without EUV equipment from ASML, so they likely would just spend more to "catch up" this way.

In the end it will impact the profitability of other companies, especially those with US ownership, as trade war casualty (Micron likely being the #1).
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I remember taking to someone working for a large aerospace company, asking what processes and embedded processor they used for a processor that would go into space. It was an older process that was proven and radiation hardened. And it was maybe three generations behind in terms of performance. Performance didn’t matter as much as reliability and resistance to soft errors.

However, a lot of military now uses commodity FGPAs. The US Navy secured a supply of replacements (for failures) from Xilinx since they were being phased out - for the F-35. The design cycle is long, but the manufacturing cycle is pretty short. Inevitably someone is going to be redesigning these circuits for newer FGPAs and boards once the old ones start failing.

There was a time when it was “cost is no object” and they were making small numbers of ASICs. Doesn’t make as much sense these days with FGPAs that can be remapped and where the performance is crazy good.
 
U.S. restrictions on exports to Chinese customers limit sales of Semiconductor Mfg Equipment to them; I would expect restrictions to increase. The penalties are severe.

SMIC is China's biggest advanced chip company. Despite US sanctions, SMIC is now the world's second-largest pure-play foundry after TSMC.
SMIC has developed its N+1 fabrication technology, which is considered the company's 7 nm-class node. They will likely deliver a 5nm process node later this year. SMIC has a dedicated 3nm team. They have made good use of US tools (AMAT, LRCX, etc) purchased and installed before the sanctions.
 
JHZR2 said:
I was going to say… USA will make 28% of 10nm and below, but China will be making 5nm and below.
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China wants Taiwan for their semiconductor industry, pure and simple. Think of it this way: if China is in the stone age when it comes to semiconductors, them Russia is circling the primordial soup. Russia is at 45nm, with no progress in sight.

China is currently trying to copy old consumer Intel designs and replicate them, without having a proper x86 license. Not that Intel would grant them one, lol. They're nowhere near 5nm. They spend more on semiconductors every year, than they spend on oil. For China, semiconductors are their Achilles heel.
 
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