Big Oil's production down 7%; peak oil upon us?

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Executive summary: Exxon, BP, etc., all report that their global production is down 7%. Replacement resources are becoming more difficult to find.

Now maybe this is typical manipulative hogwash from companies determined to find excuses to raise fuel prices and profits. But coming on top of the Wikileaks document about the Saudi minister who admitted that his country's massive oil reserves estimates are 40% too high, could this be the start of the evidence of peak oil?
 
Many times, when im sat at a stop light, I look around me at all of the cars and a badly planned suburbia...all I can think is that it simply is not sustainable.

It is definitely not a model of sustainability to the likes of of up coming china and India....yet they all wanna be like the US....

I have been watching a bunch of documentaries on this very subject recently....I see that I can be sucked in by the views therein and become sure that peak oil is upon us but truthfully, when you look at all of the evidence stacked up, it paints a very bleak picture.

Its easy to say, "oh, we'll never run out!"

global population increase, the rise of China/india and Africa after that...hmmm...whats says you?
 
I was having that same conversation with my neighbor last year, he's an engineer for halliburton and he said that we reached that point about 9 years ago. Kinda depressing huh?
 
Originally Posted By: ekrampitzjr


Now maybe this is typical manipulative hogwash from companies determined to find excuses to raise fuel prices and profits. But coming on top of the Wikileaks document about the Saudi minister who admitted that his country's massive oil reserves estimates are 40% too high, could this be the start of the evidence of peak oil?


You hit the nail on the head!
 
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'Peak' oil is a misnomer. NO one body knows the amount down there. I have an old Chem. Engr. Handbook that flatly states--"the world will be out of oil by 1950". Technology does NOT stand still. John--Las Vegas
 
Originally Posted By: Torino
'Peak' oil is a misnomer. NO one body knows the amount down there. I have an old Chem. Engr. Handbook that flatly states--"the world will be out of oil by 1950". Technology does NOT stand still. John--Las Vegas


I agree. The oil production rate will continue to increase forever if we really need it to.
 
What ?

no-one knows, so there must be infinity +1 of it...

You guys are on some serious koolaid, of a potent type, unless you beleive as one of my former bosses that there's exactly enough to get us to the date required for all things to end.
 
Oil reserve number means nothing without the mentioning of "at what price".

There will always be enough oil if you pay something so high that it is not worth using, but the main concern to consumer is what is the number that will break their back and have them switch to something else (i.e. a more efficient car or public transit, or move closer to school/work, or use natural gas or electric car).
 
Originally Posted By: PandaBear
Oil reserve number means nothing without the mentioning of "at what price".

There will always be enough oil if you pay something so high that it is not worth using, but the main concern to consumer is what is the number that will break their back and have them switch to something else (i.e. a more efficient car or public transit, or move closer to school/work, or use natural gas or electric car).


This is exactly right. I fully believe we'll never run out of oil, simply because it'll eventually be too expensive to access and/or a cheaper form of energy will come about.

Running out of oil and having oil that's too expensive to access may have similar net effects on life as we know it today, but they're really two different things.
 
Amount of crude oil produced depends on demand . There is very little long term storage capacity anywhere .
Demand here has dropped as more fuel efficient cars make up a larger part of the total car population .

BTW gasoline prices here in NJ continue to drop in spite of crude prices rising - it's called supply and demand and not the efforts of mysterious speculators .
 
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Originally Posted By: Hokiefyd
This is exactly right. I fully believe we'll never run out of oil, simply because it'll eventually be too expensive to access and/or a cheaper form of energy will come about.

Running out of oil and having oil that's too expensive to access may have similar net effects on life as we know it today, but they're really two different things.


I dunno, I'd consider them the same.

Yes, we will never use up the last drop of oil, at some point it will be expensive enough to only be used for clothes, drugs, that sort of stuff.

As to what form of energy will end up cheaper than (when it becomes too expensive) oil, got any ideas ?

Switching to coal would be a disaster.

And until nuclear fuels are reprocessed enmasse, there just isn't enough.
 
Originally Posted By: bruno
Amount of crude oil produced depends on demand . There is very little long term storage capacity anywhere .
Demand here has dropped as more fuel efficient cars make up a larger part of the total car population .

BTW gasoline prices here in NJ continue to drop in spite of crude prices rising - it's called supply and demand and not the efforts of mysterious speculators .

^^
This.

Unleaded regular is now below $3.00/gal in this area.
Fuel oil is around 3.66/gal.
If I ran production for a major, I'd use lower demand as an opportunity to taper off production to perform heavy maintenance in my fields and refineries.
Are we now into more costly to recover oil, on average?
Yes.
Will oil eventually reach a price level where it is no longer an affordable transportation fuel?
It must.
The only question is when and what the alternatives will be.
 
Originally Posted By: bruno
Amount of crude oil produced depends on demand . There is very little long term storage capacity anywhere .
Demand here has dropped as more fuel efficient cars make up a larger part of the total car population .

BTW gasoline prices here in NJ continue to drop in spite of crude prices rising - it's called supply and demand and not the efforts of mysterious speculators .


But what about the increase in demand from China, India, Brazil, etc because of their new booming economy? That would totally offset any reduction we have in the western world.

My money is bet on people all over the world having to do all sort of crazy efficiency optimization just to keep their fuel budget as they are today.
 
Originally Posted By: Shannow
Originally Posted By: Hokiefyd
This is exactly right. I fully believe we'll never run out of oil, simply because it'll eventually be too expensive to access and/or a cheaper form of energy will come about.

Running out of oil and having oil that's too expensive to access may have similar net effects on life as we know it today, but they're really two different things.


I dunno, I'd consider them the same.

Yes, we will never use up the last drop of oil, at some point it will be expensive enough to only be used for clothes, drugs, that sort of stuff.

As to what form of energy will end up cheaper than (when it becomes too expensive) oil, got any ideas ?

Switching to coal would be a disaster.

And until nuclear fuels are reprocessed enmasse, there just isn't enough.


To consumers they are the same thing. I think most likely the replacement will be bio based like algae oil or micro bacteria based producing method in tubes and pressed for oil. Nuclear and wind will likely replace coal in the future, maybe solar but not sure at what price will it be efficient for anything other than to compensate AC need in low density area (non city). We'll need fast reactor and reprocessing to reduce the volume and the half life.

They all seems like expensive solution, but life goes on just like the old days when we ran out of sperm whale oil.
 
Originally Posted By: Shannow
What ?

no-one knows, so there must be infinity +1 of it...

You guys are on some serious koolaid, of a potent type, unless you beleive as one of my former bosses that there's exactly enough to get us to the date required for all things to end.


I was being sarcastic with the possible interpretation of the "'Peak' oil is a misnomer" idea as meaning that there will never be a peak in oil production. Probably not the best way to get a response and further explanation, but I tend to write how I speak and people don't seem to get too offended as long as I have a smile on my face to show that I'm not trying to be serious or condescending. Anyway, I think he was really just saying that it could plateau for a while as extraction technology improves and/or increased costs result in some displacement by other forms of energy and declines in per-capita usage. It's a finite resource, so it has to decline eventually, but maybe the peak won't be quite as sharp and the back side of the curve not quite as steep as Hubbert predicted. Still, the future should be interesting.
 
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