Berkshire has reduced its equities holdings seven consecutive quarters

Timely Twitter post.

1722791071783.webp
 
I see this and worry. Then I realize I have 20 years left to go and that I'm better off continuing to buy index funds. At least for another 10 years, then I should start diversifying so that this worries me less.

Does make me wonder if I should increase my cash though... and if maybe if I just wait another 3-6 months if I can't find that used car for less... probably not, yesteryear's prices are never coming back (not when, in the event of a crash, suddenly the number of people shopping for beaters increases dramatically).
 
Berkshire is almost fully rules based. His rules told him it was time to sell, and he did. Probably wasn't fortune telling. In 2017 the fed was getting ready to tighten which was likely part of it.

The vast majority of the 3X walmart was pandemic money printing, which no rule could predict. He missed NVDA too? So does that make him bad at investing?

You only have to be right in the market 55% of the time to beat it handily.
Buffet has beat the very best in the market over the long haul. One only needs to see his bailout of Goldman Sachs to know how truly disciplined he is. Goldman Sachs is the most inside connected investment house in the globe. Yet Buffet bailed Goldman out.

I am not sure Buffet makes mistakes, instead he makes decisions. The very best leaders make 7-8 out of ten decisions correct.. any leader that makes ten out of ten decisions correct never made a decision.
 
Last edited:
Buffet has beat the very best in the market over the long haul. One only needs to see his bailout of Goldman Sachs to know how truly disciplined he is. Goldman Sachs is the most inside connected investment house in the globe. Yet Buffet bailed Goldman out.

I am not sure Buffet makes mistakes, instead he makes decisions. The very best leaders make 7-8 out of ten decisions correct.. any leader that makes ten out of ten decisions correct never made a decision.

Depends on what kind of investor you are and where you strength is. Buffet was a security and insurance guy to begin with and he is not much of a tech person. He wouldn't understand what is a growth market to begin with and he knows his limit. What he is good at is, as he said, avoiding the dragon than slaying the dragon.

I just talk to a few coworkers and know what companies are good and bought a bunch of Microsoft, Amazon, AMD, ARM 10-20 years ago and I beat Buffet, but I don't expect to do as well if I buy index fund or buying tech stock after retiring from tech.

Still, 20% rain or shine is still crazy good, but that doesn't mean we should all trying to copy his portfolio. You do what you are good at and focus on what you know, follow Peter Lynch's advice.
 
Going to be a mess, for sure.

What we saw in stocks today was only a Taste. Companies going out of business and the collapse and housing and the auto industry are just around the corner…..won’t have to wait too long,

Hold that cash….
 
Back
Top Bottom