Higher voltage levels don't have TAC charges & receive lower rates. Generally speaking, transmission level voltages (>100kV) but in many areas 230kV will be the lowest rates.
AI - Shorter workweek? Consume jobs?
- Thread starter JeffKeryk
- Start date
I typically disagree with that statement the same reason someone saying people who never got a professional career are less likely to be unemployed, because they don't feel like they are stuck to a job that they have been doing for a decade and specialized in.
To make it a machine related comparison, you are suggesting that typically a giant robot that cost 2M lifting heavy objects or doing delicate sub micron precision work, will be replaced by a bunch of robots mimic human motions holding hand tools because they are more flexible. Or, the reason those expensive single purpose robots are expensive because of economy of scale and if human labor hour equivalent is cheaper, those robots would never have existed and human would have been doing those jobs today still (and therefore humanoid robots would be able to replace those expensive single purpose robots).
I don't know about you but I never believe that 100 human can be lifting 5000 lb of payload as effective as a giant single purpose robot (or lift, or whatever), or 10 human doing hours of hand soldering can do precision circuit board production better than a special purpose factory equipment even if they cost the same.
One thing I know for sure is the ideal employee is not someone with 2 legs 2 hands and 10 fingers. If you were to breed a brainless bio robot to do work for free why not 2 octopus tentacles holding power tool on 4 legs? Why not 3 arms, why not having eyes on the arms? There is a reason robots in factories are certain shape and not looking human like.
Perhaps I could have explained my point better...
I am not sure if you have worked in manufacturing, but my post is well accepted in factory planning. Humans can do multiple tasks and flow to the backlogged operations. They can be retrained. Their real world understanding and feedback of the process is invaluable.
I suggest you read about Toyota's philosophy. It suggests robots and automation should be used in jobs to dangerous for people.
Toyota's philosophy is to use robotics and automation to amplify human ability, not simply replace it.
I can confirm this. When I worked for Edison Mission O&M, they previously had a managerial co-op with Toyota & Hitachi Heavy Industries (think they're Hitachi Power Services now) about employee ownership of roles/accountability & input valuation. They also covered technology integration into workforce operations. That co-op changed the way Edison operated from a top-down dictation to operations "owning" projects. Production reliability (operational availability) soared afterwards.
Yeah I work in manufacturing all the time (actually I wrote software for machines doing the manufacturing). I am well aware that human can be retrained and robots are not that easy to, after all I wrote those software for those machines.
I have always seen new human trained to be cheaper and more productive than retraining senior employees for new skills, and I have always seen designing new machines being more productive than redesigning or repurposing old machines from one job to another.
However, I am also well aware of the human limitation and the value of specialization in machines. Very often a jack of all trade machine lose out to a specially designed machine that performs better. Obviously not all machines are like that and not all humans are like that, but I always believe that if human scaling and cost cutting is the solution we would probably still be in the world of slavery and he who has the most slave rules the world (and today the reality is proven that he who has the most specialized technology rules the world instead).
Very often general purpose machines that can be reprogrammed for different purposes are not, because it is typically better to replace them with newer, more specialized machines, and sold the older one off to do the same work, or retire them. Humanoid robots would face the same issue. Nobody would reprogram the same humanoid robots due to demand supply change and just keep them in storage, and when recovery comes new robots with better productivity would be used instead, and the older ones sold off to do cheaper work and cost written off. Maybe general purpose robots would help in production of new robots, maybe they would have improved tooling and be programmed for small to mid scale production in rapid changing market, but they would likely not have the best cost advantage, and is still a compromise in flexibility vs cost.
Maybe you are right, I don't disagree it could work, but I haven't seen it in the most optimal factories.
@PandaBear as you know there are pros and cons to most decisions. I expect more automation going forward. Look at Tesla; the cars offer very few options; the BOMs are simple. Procurement can be optimized, as can production planning. Manufacturing lines can be simpler. And then there is Giga Casting, which drastically simplifies the manufacturing floor while increasing yields and enabling uniformity and precision.
Expect others to follow. Interestingly, I met with Jay Vijayan, then IT VP at Tesla, to discuss their MRP and Capacity Planning. Elon hates SAP. So do I.
Expect others to follow. Interestingly, I met with Jay Vijayan, then IT VP at Tesla, to discuss their MRP and Capacity Planning. Elon hates SAP. So do I.
I don't disagree with you at all. I just think robots do not have to look like a human with 10 fingers and 2 legs and use tools designed for human. If I were to design a general purpose robot it would look like a scorpion with 5 wheels (like an office chair) and 3 arms and special adapter for tools (2 to hold and 1 to apply tool with). Maybe that would be general enough, may be that wouldn't, but I am sure there will not be one size fits all and buyers would complain about them being either too general or too specific for one task. Just that today we all assume the future would be a human look a like holding a design for human tool.
I just experienced an example of the evaporation of entry level jobs for young people meaning high school part-time jobs and such.
We already know cashiers are going by the wayside with self checkouts, but something else hit me today when I went to pick up my pizza. And it’s really awesome Pizza.
I could see the restaurant industry going to automation much in the way fast food restaurants have.
Menus will be on tablets you’ll select what you want to eat and a robot will bring it to your table.
Sure, I’m sure there will be some help around but nothing on the scale like it has been.
Here is why I make that statement. Went to my favorite pizza place near the ocean today. Wife and I took the dog to the beach and on the way home. We picked up a pizza. It’s a real genuine New York style pizza place on the Carolina coast with a brick oven Pizza oven.
At times we have sat at tables ordered and ate dinner in the restaurant however, this time we had the dog so we decided to bring the pizza home.
Last time we were there, just a couple weeks ago and to my surprise today as I waited in line to pick up my to go pizza there were two robots running around bringing the food to the tables.
They were pretty cool to watch and right on point all the time. They would bring the food to the table, perfectly turn around to the end of the table where the people were sitting and the people would take their food off the multiple shelves in the robot.
When the robots would go back to the kitchen to pick up more food, one robot would wait outside until the other robot left the area.
More surprising this was at some big corporate chain store, but a well run privately owned pizzeria. They were very entertaining and the patrons enjoyed watching them, including myself.
I suspect seeing it in a small pizzeria restaurant that this is going to catch on fast
We already know cashiers are going by the wayside with self checkouts, but something else hit me today when I went to pick up my pizza. And it’s really awesome Pizza.
I could see the restaurant industry going to automation much in the way fast food restaurants have.
Menus will be on tablets you’ll select what you want to eat and a robot will bring it to your table.
Sure, I’m sure there will be some help around but nothing on the scale like it has been.
Here is why I make that statement. Went to my favorite pizza place near the ocean today. Wife and I took the dog to the beach and on the way home. We picked up a pizza. It’s a real genuine New York style pizza place on the Carolina coast with a brick oven Pizza oven.
At times we have sat at tables ordered and ate dinner in the restaurant however, this time we had the dog so we decided to bring the pizza home.
Last time we were there, just a couple weeks ago and to my surprise today as I waited in line to pick up my to go pizza there were two robots running around bringing the food to the tables.
They were pretty cool to watch and right on point all the time. They would bring the food to the table, perfectly turn around to the end of the table where the people were sitting and the people would take their food off the multiple shelves in the robot.
When the robots would go back to the kitchen to pick up more food, one robot would wait outside until the other robot left the area.
More surprising this was at some big corporate chain store, but a well run privately owned pizzeria. They were very entertaining and the patrons enjoyed watching them, including myself.
I suspect seeing it in a small pizzeria restaurant that this is going to catch on fast
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If anything AI will be expected to allow employees to carry higher workloads. No way that bosses would simply allow your employees more free time. It would be used to increase profit and reduce overhead in every way possible. I think we are already seeing plenty examples of this.
I truly think if the AI trend continues people are going to have a "HAL 2000" episode or serious issue. Case in point a guy recently told an ai program to draw a bear. OK no problem then draw a bear in a tuxedo still no problem. Then draw a bear in a tuxedo with a blonde riding its back. AI said it couldn't do that as it's too "suggestive". What next Grok or chat gpt won't dial 911 because it doesn't deem an accident severe enough or your house isn't that "hot". I think society is in for a rude awakening.
Watch Soylent Green.
Robots and AI will usher a new utopia! Or was it dystopia? I always confuse the two.
I don't see robots/AI taking over this kind of grunge work. Too volatile, you HAVE to have a feel for the machine, a feel for the material, and did I mention steel mill stuff is DIRTY? My glasses are a wreck by lunch time!
My coworker was talking about the same exact thing at work last night! Freaky
How many year did it take you to become a CNC guru ?
I primarily run manual machines, we're a job shop so lots of <10 piece orders.... but about 10 years to be proficient enough to turn anything on an engine lathe/CNC lathe. Still new to the bar mills like I showed in my picture though.
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