There was a good discussion this morning that I heard, that effectively attributed all of the doom and gloom and speculators to the fact that most are only istening to those who are bullish on oil.
i.e. goldman sachs, and the other "oil prospectors" that are profiting on everyone else pumping it up.
Look at refinery capacty - only around 87% right now. Oil? we have a surplus, at least 1/2 MM bbl gasoline, and IIRC, 1.7MM BBL distillate.
Its a bubble. Folks have to trade money to make money, hdge funds short oil and then have to cover as people buy into the bullish realm.
Will oil be high? yes. Stay high? likely. But $92/bbl is what most economists believe is the stationary price. We're in a bubble just like dot com or real estate. Doesnt mean there isnt reality behind it, just like there is a speck of truth in every other bubble (well, maybe the tulip bulb bubble of 1671 was a bit far-fetched), but its no less a ridiculous self-perpetuated bubble.
Just glad Im profiting from it...
JMH