"The Real Problem with the American Auto Industry"

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Originally Posted by PimTac
"I don't find this convincing.
The real issue has long been that foreign competitors produced a more advanced and higher quality product while the Big 3 were always a step back in both.
Playing catchup is never enough and none of these firms had the vision to leapfrog their foreign competitors. Overcapacity is never an issue if your product offerings and build costs are kept in line and labor costs are only a small part of the cost of a finished vehicle. Legacy costs have no impact unless you're shrinking your company because you can't come up with competitive product and must discount heavily, as the Big 3 did.
This was a failure of senior management and its roots lie in the seventies, when these American companies found that mediocre was good enough.
They never did see the changes that were coming commencing in the eighties, when mediocre was no longer good enough."


Great analysis. The seventies were a horrible time for the Big 3. After the Saudi oil shock, they just kept making cars but they were poorly built and engineered. The labor force didn't care as long as they got paid. The Malaise as it's called.

The Japanese entered the market but their cars were not the greatest yet. They learned very quickly though. They capitalized on fuel economy with their 4 cylinder engines while the American companies stuck with V8s.

A whole generation experienced this including yours truly. Brand new cars rusting on dealers lots. Many had parts missing or put on in a sloppy manner. The salesman's most used line those days was "we will take care of that before you get it. "

The American companies have been a step or two behind since then.
The 70s definitely damaged the American auto sector, but emissions and regulations like the 1973 federal roll over standards that never materialized and 5 MPH bumpers made a lot of cars during that period slow and ugly. 80s American cars were pretty cool but the 90s-bailouts were laughable. I think it was hubris that lead them to make cars that were just not competitive anymore during the 90s and 2000s, putting a Malibu against a Corolla or Camry in the late 90s is completely ridiculous looking back.


All they are good for is trucks and muscle cars, everyone knows that by now. It's sad that people are losing their jobs but it's been a decade since the bailouts and the American auto industry is just beginning to learn the lessons that were obvious to anyone back then: Stop building cars!
 
US makers should build cars abroad and see how demand and consumers want it. The costs are excessive domestically to build a vehicle you hope will sell (eg Sedans that Big Three dropping like flies).

If demand comes around work on domestic factories to cover the gap.
 
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In my case, I rarely "Buy American" because the Big 2.5 build very few cars that I'd consider owning; the C7 Corvette, the Challenger SRT, Mustang GT/GT350, and the Wrangler are the only ones that would make my short list.
 
Ford loses $500 on every Focus they build, that is obviously not sustainable.

The price of gas will some day rise back as it always has, and the truck/SUV market will collapse, and they will have no product to sell. That will be the end game...
 
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Originally Posted by Ded Mazai
What always amazed me is how the Americans could design cars using inches. Just recalculating the units back and forth could lead to mistakes, and confusion, and waste of time. Need to have metric and imperial threads, wrenches. Simply amazing.


This was never really an issue....Nor did I ever see problem caused by it. Once they converted a component/system (say the body) over to metric.....The entire body was metric!
Yes....I've heard the rumors of metric fasteners on one side of the car & standard on the other, Complete fabrications....Though body men were known to run standard bolts in where a metric bolt was.

As for the mix of both under the hood....Let's use a 1995 Chevy truck as an example. Everything that screwed into the engine block or cylinder heads is standard & Everything else is metric. All torque specs were printed in standard regardless.

For the last 20 years with the exception of the Buick 3800, Chevy 4.3L & Chrysler LA engines.....Domestic vehicles have been 100% metric.
 
Originally Posted by Ded Mazai
What always amazed me is how the Americans could design cars using inches. Just recalculating the units back and forth could lead to mistakes, and confusion, and waste of time. Need to have metric and imperial threads, wrenches. Simply amazing.


Looking just at fasteners and fittings...

SAE standards are surprisingly simple as there is only one standard
a set of 16 wrenches and you can work on anything ever made.

Metric you need triple that number of tools as there are 6 primary metric standards just for nuts and bolts,
Add to that the nut and bolt need a different wrench size,
thread fit, pitch and torque values are all over the map on metric

And to add insult to injury SAE hardware is significantly less expensive for the same quality and "size" fastener.

Metric only makes sense if you limit the designer to a few very specific fasteners that comply to a specific DIN standard but you could do that with SAE as well.

Coming from someone who works in a mixed automotive environment
 
As far as the overcapacity in manufacturing, it's not just automotive. Somehow it seems nearly overnight, even with the economy supposedly BOOMING, many industries now have a glut of extra, "wasteful" capacity. In the glass container industry, the three major players have closed 5 plants in the last 12 months, totalling somewhere around half a million tons of capacity, and have already stripped those plants bare to raze them. I don't get it though, as people finally wake up to the fact that plastic is evil, and start to flee back to a more recyclable product like glass, that "overcapacity" will quickly evaporate.... and now there is no domestic capacity to pick up the slack. This, in turn, will drive more production overseas.

I can see the same thing happening in the auto industry... the companies shut down the plants claiming "overcapacity", and when their "demand" finally picks up they will move production overseas to plants that are expanding or even being built anew. It's certainly a possibility that I could be wrong, but consider this: in 1985, there were 123 glass container manufacturing plants in the continental US, and imported glass containers was about 2-3% of the total glass market. As of today, there are 40 glass container plants in the US, and fully 1/3 (34%) of all glass containers in the domestic market today are imported, mainly from China, then Mexico. It doesn't bode well for the future of US manufacturing IMHO.
 
Originally Posted by SubieRubyRoo
As far as the overcapacity in manufacturing, it's not just automotive. Somehow it seems nearly overnight, even with the economy supposedly BOOMING, many industries now have a glut of extra, "wasteful" capacity.


The party is quickly coming to an end, this economy is about to retract quickly and the automotive sector is probably going to take one of the biggest hits.

I guess since I'm not old enough to remember crappy 70's cars my perspective might be skewed and all my GMs and Chrysler have served me well. Worst vehicles the family has ever owned were both Japanese, both had major powertrain failure long before they hit 100k. Oddly both were totaled right after dumping $5k into each, talk about pouring salt in a wound.
 
Originally Posted by madRiver
US makers should build cars abroad and see how demand and consumers want it. The costs are excessive domestically to build a vehicle you hope will sell (eg Sedans that Big Three dropping like flies).

If demand comes around work on domestic factories to cover the gap.

Only market where US car makers have a chance, all three of them is China. In Europe, Ford is holding a line, but GM is DONE! They have ruined Opel, Germany saved OPEL, then they sold it (SAAB was not that lucky).
Chrysler cannot do anything in Europe since what is keeping in life FCA are trucks and SUV's, not real hits in Europe.
 
These threads are always entertaining ...

Best part will be when the Chinese come in and take over because it's all most people will be able to afford....

#carindustryisdying
 
Think you are right... The party is going to end sooner than later. It also might be quite harsh in fact.
 
For any car manufacturer to be profitable they have to build cars that are desirable that customers are willing to pay full price for. They must also be reliable so warranty costs are as close to nothing as possible. Inventory control is very important as well; no over production allowed!

If you do this day in and day out you will be successful. Porsche comes to mind but there are others as well.

It's far more desirable to be a small (but profitable) car manufacturer that makes sales from a tight inventory of high quality cars than to be a behemoth that has to discount perpetually just to move mountains of mediocre metal.

Every time a manufacturer sets out to be the worlds largest car company, that's the start of their decline.
 
Too bad Saturn wasnt still on its own. GM took them over and trashed them. They need to end this bailout idea. No more not again. No UAW either. The new mentality will be we are gonna make a better car for less. You work in a car factory because your passion is cars. If its not then find people who feel that way. The military has parachute riggers who pack chutes and randomly have to jump for quality control as well as other stuff. Lemon UAW cars will be bought back from the consumer from the workers wages. Lose .10 an hour for two weeks seems petty until 12 cars come back and its 1.20. They have screwed up and over people and now they have been put on notice. My recommendation is to let Jeremy Clarkson and his two sidekicks test a car before production and make them take a polygraph after so you can get a accurate measure if its good or not. Its bad when Hi Pount firearms has a better customer service/warranty than the Big 3. Let Glock take over QC at all UAW factories and whip them into shape.
 
Final nail in coffin may be when gas prices go up and a large segment of the buying public veers back to cars...
What a mess.
 
Saturn was never really on their own although GM said they were. GM was always making the decisions. GM didn't takeover Saturn, they built them and then, they tore them down.

SATURN was supposed be competitive with the foreign competition(mainly HonYota)and in many ways they were but, they weren't as reliable and people spoke with their pocketbook. Most domestic car companies can't seem to build a competitive small car WHILE still making a profit...according to the PRESS.

I've actually liked some of our domestic small cars. Currently, I like the Cruze(Cruz) as it just feels more grown up than many of its competitors who are doing better in the marketplace. The market is going CUV/SUV now and the companies need to satisfy the buyers. Personally I prefer a sedan 1st or hatchback 2nd.

My wife wants another CUV so, I'm sure this is what we'll be buying next.
 
Originally Posted by fdcg27
Originally Posted by dtownfb
This article appeared in today's (12/17/2018) CNN Business page. It looks at the US auto industry through the lens of plant capacity for the domestic and the growth of foreign automakers plants in the US. It speaks to the true issues GM, Ford and Fiat Chrysler face which is a rapidly changing market and plant over-capacity. Couple this with a continuing decline in market share and high legacy costs, they can no longer absorb fluctuating sales. BTW, overall US car sales were down 5% in 2017 after a record 2016 (fairly even this year).

I guess now is not the time to invest in Ford or GM.....


I don't find this convincing.
The real issue has long been that foreign competitors produced a more advanced and higher quality product while the Big 3 were always a step back in both.
Playing catchup is never enough and none of these firms had the vision to leapfrog their foreign competitors. Overcapacity is never an issue if your product offerings and build costs are kept in line and labor costs are only a small part of the cost of a finished vehicle. Legacy costs have no impact unless you're shrinking your company because you can't come up with competitive product and must discount heavily, as the Big 3 did.
This was a failure of senior management and its roots lie in the seventies, when these American companies found that mediocre was good enough.
They never did see the changes that were coming commencing in the eighties, when mediocre was no longer good enough.



Bottom line, Unions, not only unions but the American payscale and Wallstreet Shareholders made it impossible for GM to compete on a world wide scale in the 70s, costs were way too high.
Fast forward to today, still digging themselves out of the garbage of decades past, even though the union is still there and more expensive for GM, its not as it was past decades but still outdated factories, outdated management. I want them to survive but like the US DEBT CLOCK, some problems may never go away.

Ex.
BMW (a privately held company) moved into South Carolina in 1992, lean, mean, modern factory now in expanded many times is BMWs largest manufacturing plant in the world.
BMW USA exports more automobiles then any other car maker in the USA, pretty impressive, all with American labor.
Roughly 1,900 cars produced every day here in South Carolina.

Click, BMW History

Anyway, it can be done, American workers best in the world but sometimes its who is leading them or misleading them. (management/unions?)
 
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Originally Posted by PimTac
"I don't find this convincing.
The real issue has long been that foreign competitors produced a more advanced and higher quality product while the Big 3 were always a step back in both.
Playing catchup is never enough and none of these firms had the vision to leapfrog their foreign competitors. Overcapacity is never an issue if your product offerings and build costs are kept in line and labor costs are only a small part of the cost of a finished vehicle. Legacy costs have no impact unless you're shrinking your company because you can't come up with competitive product and must discount heavily, as the Big 3 did.
This was a failure of senior management and its roots lie in the seventies, when these American companies found that mediocre was good enough.
They never did see the changes that were coming commencing in the eighties, when mediocre was no longer good enough."





Great analysis. The seventies were a horrible time for the Big 3. After the Saudi oil shock, they just kept making cars but they were poorly built and engineered. The labor force didn't care as long as they got paid. The Malaise as it's called.

The Japanese entered the market but their cars were not the greatest yet. They learned very quickly though. They capitalized on fuel economy with their 4 cylinder engines while the American companies stuck with V8s.

A whole generation experienced this including yours truly. Brand new cars rusting on dealers lots. Many had parts missing or put on in a sloppy manner. The salesman's most used line those days was "we will take care of that before you get it. "

The American companies have been a step or two behind since then.


Don't forget changes in emissions law really hurt those V8's as well.
 
Talk about ... I had a 318 cid that made almost 200 HP less than my current 325 cid engines ... not to mention torque and MPG increases ... Heck, my Fusion Hybrid has more HP than that 318
 
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