GM killing Chevy Volt

[JeffKeryk]

Originally Posted by emg
Originally Posted by E365
We haven't had electric cars because the battery technology was never good enough - and now it is and it's getting better by the day.


No, it's not. Until an electric car can drive at least as far as a typical driver can drive in a day without having to stop to recharge, it's not good enough. And there's no sign of that happening any time soon.

Every week there's a new 'battery breakthrough' in research, but in the real world every decade or so we get a new battery tech that's a bit better than the last. We're still a long way from making batteries that are good enough to replace ICE cars for the majority of drivers.

I'm guessing you'll say 'yes, but most people only drive a few miles around town most days'. But we had electric town cars decades ago. No-one bought them because... they could only drive around town.


The Tesla Model 3 is expected to be in the top 10 selling cars next year. Who knows? But things are changing.

 

[fdcg27]

Originally Posted by JeffKeryk
Originally Posted by emg
Originally Posted by E365
We haven't had electric cars because the battery technology was never good enough - and now it is and it's getting better by the day.


No, it's not. Until an electric car can drive at least as far as a typical driver can drive in a day without having to stop to recharge, it's not good enough. And there's no sign of that happening any time soon.

Every week there's a new 'battery breakthrough' in research, but in the real world every decade or so we get a new battery tech that's a bit better than the last. We're still a long way from making batteries that are good enough to replace ICE cars for the majority of drivers.

I'm guessing you'll say 'yes, but most people only drive a few miles around town most days'. But we had electric town cars decades ago. No-one bought them because... they could only drive around town.


The Tesla Model 3 is expected to be in the top 10 selling cars next year. Who knows? But things are changing.


Model 3 attaining that kind of volume?
I doubt it unless Tesla is making a mint on its current base plus 25K deliveries.
To be in the top ten, there'll have to be a whole lot of 35K base cars delivered and I don't think that Tesla can afford to do that.
Base car plus a grand or so in cost for toys for 60K appears to be what Tesla can do ATM.
I could well be wrong, but a look at Tesla's manufacturing expertise to date would argue otherwise.

 

[E365]

Originally Posted by fdcg27

[
Model 3 attaining that kind of volume?
I doubt it unless Tesla is making a mint on its current base plus 25K deliveries.
To be in the top ten, there'll have to be a whole lot of 35K base cars delivered and I don't think that Tesla can afford to do that.
Base car plus a grand or so in cost for toys for 60K appears to be what Tesla can do ATM.
I could well be wrong, but a look at Tesla's manufacturing expertise to date would argue otherwise.


In the USA, the Tesla Model 3 was the #4 best selling car in Sept 2018, the #6 best selling car in Oct 2018 and the #5 best selling car in Nov 2018.

Seems quite likely it'll be in the Top 10, if not even Top 5 for 2019.


http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2018/1...s-rankings-best-selling-cars-in-america/

http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2018/1...s-rankings-best-selling-cars-in-america/

http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2018/1...s-rankings-best-selling-cars-in-america/

 

[JeffKeryk]

Originally Posted by fdcg27

Originally Posted by JeffKeryk
Originally Posted by emg
Originally Posted by E365
We haven't had electric cars because the battery technology was never good enough - and now it is and it's getting better by the day.


No, it's not. Until an electric car can drive at least as far as a typical driver can drive in a day without having to stop to recharge, it's not good enough. And there's no sign of that happening any time soon.

Every week there's a new 'battery breakthrough' in research, but in the real world every decade or so we get a new battery tech that's a bit better than the last. We're still a long way from making batteries that are good enough to replace ICE cars for the majority of drivers.

I'm guessing you'll say 'yes, but most people only drive a few miles around town most days'. But we had electric town cars decades ago. No-one bought them because... they could only drive around town.


The Tesla Model 3 is expected to be in the top 10 selling cars next year. Who knows? But things are changing.


Model 3 attaining that kind of volume?
I doubt it unless Tesla is making a mint on its current base plus 25K deliveries.
To be in the top ten, there'll have to be a whole lot of 35K base cars delivered and I don't think that Tesla can afford to do that.
Base car plus a grand or so in cost for toys for 60K appears to be what Tesla can do ATM.
I could well be wrong, but a look at Tesla's manufacturing expertise to date would argue otherwise.

Friend, Tesla has pulled off a modern day miracle. They built a totally new car that is super high quality. Consumer Reports named the Model S the highest rated car they ever tested. The Model 3 had 400,000 reservations before even 1 was sold.
The Model 3 cheapie will be released within 6 months; watchout. They continue to install Super Chargers across America.
Can you imagine GM, Ford or Chrysler pulling this off? Heck they seem to have been in trouble since the 70's
Oh yeah, Elon Musk also has a space company.
I suggest you check out 60 Minutes from 2 weeks ago.

 

[Rmay635703]

Ford is on pace to selling a million f150's

Tesla is off to 150,000 M3's

Wake me next year

 

[JeffKeryk]

Originally Posted by Rmay635703
Ford is on pace to selling a million f150's

Tesla is off to 150,000 M3's

Wake me next year

Good point. GM and Chrysler sell tons of trucks as well.
Interestingly, as a delivery vehicle, an electric truck makes so much sense.
Idling is hard on engines and delivers 0 mpg. Fuel is a huge cost to truckers.
An electric vehicle loses very little (maybe nothing?) at idle.

 

[Vikas]

Remember with Tesla, the keyword in previous few replies is the "car"; In USA nobody is buying a "car" anymore. Number of "cars" being sold year over year is dropping like a rock.

Tesla's market share of "car sales" is rising very fast. That is the fact. Except the total "car sales" are dwindling equally fast.

Tesla Model 3 beat all of its competitors in its class such as Audi A4, BMW 3 series and Mercedes C-class all combined and by significant margins. November 2018 delivery of Model 3 were 18650 (easy number to remember!). BMW 3 and 4 series (I suspect that also includes 1 and 2 series) were 6K. I do not have Audi or MB but my suspicion is that those are way under 5K for that month.

BMW 3/4 series sales by year 11/2015-11857 11/2016-8651 11/207-8957 11/2018-6024
(ref: http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/bmw/bmw-3-series-4-series/)

The missing link is the "non-car" sales aka CUV, SUV, pickup trucks etc. The new vehicle sales are in those categories.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Perhaps another way to think about it:
If EV's were so unimportant, limited, etc., why are all the automobile manufacturers rushing to get their versions (or second generation versions) to market?

Just askin...

 

[KrisZ]

Originally Posted by JeffKeryk
Perhaps another way to think about it:
If EV's were so unimportant, limited, etc., why are all the automobile manufacturers rushing to get their versions (or second generation versions) to market?

Just askin...


Yet another way to think about it:
Say your company is making a widget from glass. Then various governments declare that making that widget from plastic the the way of the future and it is the only environmentally conscious solution. Not only that, they are willing to subsidize some of the cost of developing and producing this new widget to "help" the new technology.

Wouldn't your company jump on the opportunity and have your image improved with the public? Your company would have nothing to lose.

 

[Brigadier]

Originally Posted by KrisZ
Originally Posted by JeffKeryk
Perhaps another way to think about it:
If EV's were so unimportant, limited, etc., why are all the automobile manufacturers rushing to get their versions (or second generation versions) to market?

Just askin...


Yet another way to think about it:
Say your company is making a widget from glass. Then various governments declare that making that widget from plastic the the way of the future and it is the only environmentally conscious solution. Not only that, they are willing to subsidize some of the cost of developing and producing this new widget to "help" the new technology.

Wouldn't your company jump on the opportunity and have your image improved with the public? Your company would have nothing to lose.



Follow the $$

 

[JeffKeryk]

Originally Posted by KrisZ
Originally Posted by JeffKeryk
Perhaps another way to think about it:
If EV's were so unimportant, limited, etc., why are all the automobile manufacturers rushing to get their versions (or second generation versions) to market?

Just askin...


Yet another way to think about it:
Say your company is making a widget from glass. Then various governments declare that making that widget from plastic the the way of the future and it is the only environmentally conscious solution. Not only that, they are willing to subsidize some of the cost of developing and producing this new widget to "help" the new technology.

Wouldn't your company jump on the opportunity and have your image improved with the public? Your company would have nothing to lose.

If the company makes an inferior product in comparison to their competitors, then they have lots to lose. Right?

 

[fdcg27]

Originally Posted by E365
Originally Posted by fdcg27

[
Model 3 attaining that kind of volume?
I doubt it unless Tesla is making a mint on its current base plus 25K deliveries.
To be in the top ten, there'll have to be a whole lot of 35K base cars delivered and I don't think that Tesla can afford to do that.
Base car plus a grand or so in cost for toys for 60K appears to be what Tesla can do ATM.
I could well be wrong, but a look at Tesla's manufacturing expertise to date would argue otherwise.


In the USA, the Tesla Model 3 was the #4 best selling car in Sept 2018, the #6 best selling car in Oct 2018 and the #5 best selling car in Nov 2018.

Seems quite likely it'll be in the Top 10, if not even Top 5 for 2019.


http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2018/1...s-rankings-best-selling-cars-in-america/

http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2018/1...s-rankings-best-selling-cars-in-america/

http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2018/1...s-rankings-best-selling-cars-in-america/


Tesla is working through a huge backlog of reservations.
Once that is satisfied, Tesla will actually have to get back to selling cars and there will be a substantial base of experience with the Model 3, for good or for ill.
Tesla does make EVs that are completely suited to daily use which nobody else seems to be doing just yet.
The average transaction price at which these backlogged deliveries are being made argues against Tesla's continued volume with this model.
At a mid thirties price, a Model 3 could make a lot of sense for most drivers.
There is the question of just how many EVs the current grid can absorb as well and that of how these vehicles will be taxed for road use.

 

[KrisZ]

Originally Posted by JeffKeryk
Originally Posted by KrisZ
Originally Posted by JeffKeryk
Perhaps another way to think about it:
If EV's were so unimportant, limited, etc., why are all the automobile manufacturers rushing to get their versions (or second generation versions) to market?

Just askin...


Yet another way to think about it:
Say your company is making a widget from glass. Then various governments declare that making that widget from plastic the the way of the future and it is the only environmentally conscious solution. Not only that, they are willing to subsidize some of the cost of developing and producing this new widget to "help" the new technology.

Wouldn't your company jump on the opportunity and have your image improved with the public? Your company would have nothing to lose.

If the company makes an inferior product in comparison to their competitors, then they have lots to lose. Right?


Well, that's is a totally different question. How they execute is totally in their hands, irrelevant of subsidies or environmental image. My point was trying to answer your original question "...why are all the automobile manufacturers rushing to get their versions (or second generation versions) to market?"
They simply want a piece of the pie with as little risk as possible. Most waited this long to see how the EV market plays out. Most thought this trend would pass, but it is clear now that it will not in the near future.