Electric Vehicle Impacts

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What will the eventual transition to electric vehicles have on the oil industry? I'm not talking about fuel which is another whole different question but the lubrication side of keeping our transportation vehicles moving. A pretty broad question I know but I think we are already seeing some changes with the the Volt, Tesla and other full or partial electrical power trains.
The oil change of the near future will be quite different from what we see today. Bye bye quick lube?
 
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I think it will be quite a while before there are enough electric vehicles on the road to make a significant impact on quick lubes and the oil industry.
 
They'll figure out a way to still own it.

One of the largest solar panel makers in the world was BP.

Yes - British Petroleum, that BP.
 
Originally Posted by edwardh1
off topic but are charging stations in public areas free?


Depends. Hy-Vee has free public charging points. Some charging points charge a flat access fee, regardless of how much electricity you draw. Some charge per-kilowatt. Some combine both methods. There's also more than one company that run public charging points, and all require an app and membership to access.
 
I've been hearing about the "eventual transition to the electric car" since the mid-70's, and it seems like if it was going to happen, it would have happened in the last 40 years.
Electric cars get a lot of press because they are novel, but only amount to 1% of sales. And then there are all those combustion cars on the road already that still need fuels and lubes.
 
No impact on the oil industry, or the motor oil industry.

I drive a lot, mostly interstates, generally in support of our flight department.

Here is what I see. The interstates are clogged with very capable vehicles. From private cars, pickup trucks and SUV's, to smaller utility trucks and full size multi trailer trucks. One thing is abundantly clear, the energy requirements of interstate travel is far beyond electric vehicle capability right now.

I left Florida on Fri night with my Uhaul full of very heavy tools, towing my Jaguar on a dual axle trailer, drove all day Sat, up through VA, WV, MD, PA and eventually to NY on Sunday night. I got 7MPG. Sorry, but that trip is currently impossible with electric power.

My point is that I was not alone. The interstates are chock-a-block full of motorists with very high energy needs.

I see plenty of Tesla cars around town. Very few on long trips.

Even if we double battery capacity, 500 miles of interstate range simply is not enough. And spending hours charging for full range will continue to be an issue. It's been said that EV vehicles are unique in that sometimes going considerably slower gets you there faster. As one can avoid a long stop for charging. The 330 mile range Model 3 can do 230 miles at interstate speeds.
 
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The Volt and similar have gas engines with all the trappings gas requires. Oil is needed for large vehicles, so far, and it isn't likely aircraft will be using electric ever. More people, more oil used, but oil can be reserved for higher uses like the aircraft rather than for running to the store. Eventually if mankind survives itself, the oil will be used up or so rare it costs a fortune. So save it for airplanes and heavy vehicles IMO
 
I had a custom home built last year and can charge two electric vehicle in the garage and I have one guest charge point for someone in the driveway.
I have no such vehicles, but I'm prepared.

However, I have a problem with fairness in gasoline & diesel tax vs electric which mostly pays zilch and even gets incentives. Add the fact most people buying
electric vehicles are upper middle income. I think anyone who registers an electric vehicle should pay more for the annual registration to make up for it in all fairness.
 
Originally Posted by goodtimes
The Volt and similar have gas engines with all the trappings gas requires.
Volt has 2-year oil change intervals, so less by far compared to normal cars.
 
Originally Posted by Linctex
They'll figure out a way to still own it.

One of the largest solar panel makers in the world was BP.

Yes - British Petroleum, that BP.



Nice to know...I've always thought that ExxonMobil already HAS the next power technology under wraps for when it gets cheaper than oil.
 
Originally Posted by edwardh1
off topic but are charging stations in public areas free?


I have seen some in the inner city of Orange County Ca, at large non publicly share held companies that did offer free EV charging, and that was some 15 years or so ago. Only 2 or 3 plugins available, not sure if they are still available today.


Originally Posted by Linctex
They'll figure out a way to still own it.

One of the largest solar panel makers in the world was BP.

Yes - British Petroleum, that BP.



I believe they bought Siemens Solar, they bought all open shares on market exchange. After they had X amount of shares, I believe they made an offer to Siemens and Siemens was smart enough to sell it to them, after a board approval of coarse. I don't think Shell did a hostile take over, or offered existing share holders a silly high premium for a controlling share percentage. It was a long time ago, I have solar panels with both brand names on them. It was around y2k. British Petroleum didn't bring any tech to the game, just $$$
 
Originally Posted by lzhome
What will the eventual transition to electric vehicles have on the oil industry? I'm not talking about fuel which is another whole different question but the lubrication side of keeping our transportation vehicles moving. A pretty broad question I know but I think we are already seeing some changes with the the Volt, Tesla and other full or partial electrical power trains.
The oil change of the near future will be quite different from what we see today. Bye bye quick lube?

You might have to ask your grandchildren via a sceance because this scenario will probably not happen in our lifetime
wink.gif
 
Yeah, but no one I know has done the total ROI for electric vehicles from mining and smelting to EOL recycling, including emissions for MFG ... I have a strong suspicion that it is worse than most petro vehicles ...

Since I only buy older nice condition stuff (last purchase was a 1993 F-150 with 81K a year ago), I'm trying to keep existing fleet on the road as long as possible. That is where true energy savings comes from - not mining and MFG in the first place.

So looking at it that way, we'll have petro demands well into the future, or local shops doing electro conversions. The equation is different in the rust belt, or oceanside due to chassis life issues.

But we'll have a market for petro (or at least a liquid fuel) for many decades. And once gasoline gets too expensive, we'll start running ethanol/methanol from bio-mass, or the extremely large reserves of coal we have. Creating alcohol (methanol) from coal is probably the only real "clean coal" solution out there ...

Ethanol from food is a stop gap being driven by the politic of the corn belt. But alcohol from bio-mass seems like a no brainer (eventually). Even though the heat per gallon is lower, the green cycle of the fuel makes it attractive (grow, ferment, refine, burn, grow ...) and gets us off "fossil fuels" which will work fine.
 
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Battery technology is what has held the electric car back for the last 40 years. Current battery technology is good enough to allow electrics to be a viable alternative to gassers.

We (the wife and I) have had a Chevrolet Volt for the past five years. It is the best of both worlds. Electric for the daily commute and a gas engine for road trips. My wife (who is the primary driver) has a round trip commute that only uses up about half of the battery charge. Her favorite part about the Volt? Not visiting the gas station. For road trips (or when she forgets to charge it up), the gas engine will take her as far as she wants to go... just like any other car. MPG on the gas engine is about 38 MPG. It is a great car and we love it.

As more and more people get familiar with electric cars, I think they will become more popular.

Good question about the industry though. I think EV's will change a lot of things. For example, the only maintenance so far in five years is three oil changes. Obviously, if it was all electric, maintenance would be zero. Brakes last forever because the motor does most of the braking. Oil changes will be a thing of the past.
 
Originally Posted by edwardh1
off topic but are charging stations in public areas free?


In Wisconsin outside of Madison and Milwaukee (excluding Tesla ) there are only 3 L3 chargers, 1 is free at a solar station, the others no idea.

Until there are more than say a hundred fast chargers in state perhaps it doesn't much matter
 
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If you stopped selling cars in the USA with internal combustion engines today, there are still over 260 million cars on the road. A few of them might still actually get their oil changed.
 
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