Can Oil Demand Really Peak Within 5 Years?

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wemay

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https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Can-Oil-Demand-Really-Peak-Within-5-Years.html



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...while some skeptics argue that the world will need fossil fuels for decades to come, that misses the importance of hitting the peak. The real pain for the fossil fuel industry comes much sooner. Once the peak is hit, the troubles start to accelerate. Demand starts to fall, so fossil fuel companies face lower prices for their products, lower valuations and ultimately stranded assets. "We should then expect a major reallocation of capital, bankruptcy of companies that are unprepared, and sector restructuring as those who prepared for the shift take over the assets of those that did not," Carbon Tracker concluded.

Investors are not going to wait for the complete phase out of fossil fuels before they start to redeploy capital and shun fossil fuel investments; that shift occurs much sooner, arguably around the peak.

The U.S. coal industry is a perfect example of this dynamic. Coal miners have gone bankrupt, share prices are in the toilet, and yet coal still accounts for around a third of U.S. electricity. The disruption happened long before the phase out of coal (the U.S. will still be burning coal for years); it happened when demand really started to decline.

The same sort of disruption could start to hit oil and gas companies as soon as the 2020s.

By Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com
 
I remember that the "experts" said we would run out of oil in the 1970s. The hydrogen revolution will save us when we run out of petrol.
 
Market factors including politics are what is causing coals demise in this country. Cheap, lower carbon natural gas is the chief culprit. I foresee a long life ahead for crude oil if only as a chemical precursor instead of a motor fuel. The whaling industry along with CRT manufacturers dug their heels in kicking and screaming as their industries failed. Coal will be the same way but will eventually be regarded the same as horse and buggies, quaint.
 
As an ex Mobil Oil employee, I would regularly ask the engineers the basic questions. The response was always the same, we have far, far, more oil, worldwide, than is typically acknowledged. That was 30 years ago, and it proved to be true.

I strongly suspect it remains true today.
 
Originally Posted by Cujet
As an ex Mobil Oil employee, I would regularly ask the engineers the basic questions. The response was always the same, we have far, far, more oil, worldwide, than is typically acknowledged. That was 30 years ago, and it proved to be true.

I strongly suspect it remains true today.


Let's hope so.
 
Originally Posted by Cujet
As an ex Mobil Oil employee, I would regularly ask the engineers the basic questions. The response was always the same, we have far, far, more oil, worldwide, than is typically acknowledged. That was 30 years ago, and it proved to be true.

I strongly suspect it remains true today.


Lots of oil but every additional gallon out gets harder to source
 
Originally Posted by CT8
I remember that the "experts" said we would run out of oil in the 1970s. The hydrogen revolution will save us when we run out of petrol.



I remember it well.....
 
Originally Posted by Rmay635703
Originally Posted by Cujet
As an ex Mobil Oil employee, I would regularly ask the engineers the basic questions. The response was always the same, we have far, far, more oil, worldwide, than is typically acknowledged. That was 30 years ago, and it proved to be true. I strongly suspect it remains true today.
Lots of oil but every additional gallon out gets harder to source
How is that? The same was said only a few years ago until shale oil suddenly became easier to extract. In the 1970's we were running out of oil "tomorrow" and yet, here we are nearly 50 years later with more cars on the world's roads than ever and the US is now one of the largest oil exporters versus formerly being one of the largest importers. One of the largest oil finds in the world was found a few years ago in Texas. Color me extremely skeptical, but it is my guess we will (well, maybe not me at that point) being having this same discussion in 2050. It has been said that we have already hit the peak despite demand from other countries simply due to things like extended OCIs and higher MPG vehicles; the whole thing smacks of something other than crude oil.
 
World oil demand has been creeping up for decades and this year it hit 100 million bbls/day. Even if it hits peak demand in 2023, it will be years before it's under 100 million bbls per day and will drop slowly and perhaps even plateau. It's not as big of a news story that the reporters make it out to be.
 
OK, I will be the Contrarian. Sure, oil demand could decline, but anytime in the foreseeable future the "World" would have to go into a recession or economic slowdown, which the world just might be due for any way. The U.S. has had the longest bull market in, I can't even recall.


I believe in about 2006/2007 the world was at about 86 million barrels per day, and I think by 2008 when fuel was very expensive and the economy was going in the dumpster, I believe demand dropped to 81 million per day. "Just the numbers that I recall" I Think!

By 2009ish, fuel started dropping, and I was in California and diesel dropped as low as $1.89 per gallon. It hit $ 5.80 in 2008.


Peak demand may decline during an economic slowdown, but when the starting gate opens, its off to the races again. that horse is not going to be tamed anytime soon, not in my lifetime. everyday new drivers come of age, more goods need to be moved, everything you eat, and touch pretty much has used some form of fuel to move it from some where to you. That's not going to change anytime soon.
 
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I couldn't imagine how dangerous it would be to work in a hydrogen mine.
Maybe that's why you don't hear of them very often.
 
This is all nonsense. You have to remember the bulk of this foolishness is coming from liberal, "green thinking" idiots. The bulk of which possess the common sense of a wet log. These people are totally against any and all forms of fossil fuels, along with the corporations who produce them and take them to market. Proof of that is their total resistance to building the Keystone Pipeline. It fits in with their whole, "man is bad" narrative. They hate coal, along with all gasoline and diesel burning cars and trucks. This regardless of how clean or efficient they are. (Remember Hillary's idiotic rant claiming, "We're going to put a lot of coal companies out of business!") How did that work out for her?

They even hate Natural Gas, one of the cleanest burning, and most abundant fossil fuels there is. They drone on about, "renewable energy". Solar, wind, etc. Electric cars are what they are. Expensive and impractical toys for most all but a very few consumers who own a car. Look at Tesla. They have never turned a dime in profit, and as a result they have nowhere left to go but down.

Hydrogen powered vehicles are an expensive pipe dream that are no closer to affordable mass production and sales now, than they were 25 years ago. Hydrogen takes more energy to produce than it delivers. Ethanol continues to be a non stop joke. But none the less it is constantly being pushed by the "greenies". Who think burning our food supply is a sure way to prosperity and a clean environment.

Perhaps some day there will be an alternate source of energy besides fossil fuels. But it's decades, if not over a century away. They act like it's here right now. And we're just not applying the right attitude to develop it. That nut case Jimmy Carter publically said in 1977 that we would run out of oil by 2011. We all saw how that panned out. Now Al Gore is telling anyone and everyone who will listen, the glaciers and polar ice caps are all going to melt and submerge the coastlines. And man is the cause of it all. They will continue with their whole, "the sky is falling" presentation, in hope of selling their narrative that just won't sell. At least to anyone with an ounce of common sense, who understands that businesses have to be profitable to exist. And you can't legislate technology.

I put all of this nonsense in the same category as those articles in Popular Science back in the 60's, that told me my car would fly in another 10 years. I'm still buying tires a half century later.
 
Originally Posted by Shannow
I couldn't imagine how dangerous it would be to work in a hydrogen mine.
Maybe that's why you don't hear of them very often.


OMG, I'm going to remember that one
smile.gif


I do feel for those hardy folks working in the H2 mines though. Having to rely on bottled air, and being hermetically sealed into the mine. Big fines if hydrogen escapes! During one leak, someone intentionally lit the escaping gas, it's still burning today. Can't see the flame in the daylight though..... but you can sure see the results.....

[Linked Image]
 
No offense but mathematically the oil we get today takes much more energy and much more processing infrastructure to get out of the ground and in your tank than in the past.

In other words we are past peak oil already. (If such a concept exists)

The days of 50:1 energy ratios are long gone, Canada shale/sand oil is usually at best 3:1

This means for every gallon of oil used in extraction we can expect 3 gallons of useable energy ,
other areas are better but those cases are becoming less frequent and further we have had the technology to extract oil from shale and sand A VERY LONG TIME.

Because of the unavoidable math above we figured it wasn't worth getting harder to source oil in the days of $0.99 cent diesel. Heck no oil company would have ever considered burning 380,000 gallons of diesel to frac a well even in the 90's as the economics wouldn't work.

Can we become more efficient at doing things that are very hard?
of coarse
but it doesn't change the energy math much, it means that oil (excluding government subsidies and interference) will creep up in cost (and it is)
and eventually start increasing in cost faster and faster.

What I find ridiculous is that people stick their heads in the sand and figure the fact that our fleet fuel economy doubling, extreme tech improvements in oil extraction (driven by high fuel cost) and other efforts to improve efficiency have absolutely nothing to do with fuel continuing to be "reasonably " priced over these years.

There has been massive efforts and government subsidies to go on the path we are on, some minor hiccup at any point in the "pipeline "
and we are screwed.

If we had done nothing oil is still considered in elastic in pricing, meaning that we would have to pay a lot more nearly indefinitely if we wanted to continue funding the expansion of oil production, prices are where they are at because a bunch of folks spurred on by the lure of high prices spent cash to extract and went under.

Prices will catch up with us again unless we stabilize consumption.

As for me once fuel went above $0.99 a gallon in 2005 it was too expensive for me.


This guy is VERY far from an environmentalist

https://www.google.com/amp/s/oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Could-Oil-Actually-Hit-300.amp.html

Smart money wants high fuel prices so we will be fighting against capitalism at some point
 
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Of course there is a large difference between peak oil and peak demand. Peak oil has always been a moving target and no one ever got it right; that is, when the production has "peaked" and is now in decline. The North Sea, Alaska and Mexico are examples of localized peak oil. Peak demand however may actually occur in that 5 year to 20 year period, within the lifetime of many Bitoggers.

Let's continue to watch. Bet's anyone?
 
If it were to happen, it would not be primarily due to the green revolution of using alternative energy sources. Alternative energy sources could mute the expected increases from expanding populations and an expanding global economy.

It could happen if there was a rather large population decrease in developed countries (war, disease, collapse of food or water sources, etc.) or if the global economy were to tank in such a way that it would take a couple of decades to rebound.
 
I am constantly amazed at the depths at which oil is found. the abiotic theory may in fact have some merit. Just how many dead dinosaurs were there really. There seems no possible way large quantities of oil should be found at extreme depths where life never existed.
 
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