"Seven Reasons Why The Internal Combustion Engine Is A Dead Man Walking"

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1) Governments selecting wining technologies (for the expansion of GDP) is artificial.
2) Battery costs ARE falling..but the chart appears to be non-linear. Elon Musk's claim that battery costs will be halved in two years I disagree with. But when he brings out commercially his semi trailer in 4 months time, complete with 80,000lb, 500 mile range at 65MPH, and recharges (mostly) in 20 minutes, I'll accede the point.
3) the claim of "battery capacity" is supported by "EV range"...that's not equivalence, any more than watching your sundial tells you how many people you need to build your pyramid.
4) Betteries don't really degrade ? … Musk is continually reprogramming his cars to manage battery life. turning off insane launches, reducing fast charge rates..then Forbes use his trends to claim that they don't degrade ????
5) More reliable...unless autilot decapitates you with a semi that it didn't see, or they load a faulty upgrade over the 'net (per the alleged whistleblower...100% of vehicles disabled for any period addes to EFOF)
6) Cheaper until firstly you use up the excess capacity of the grid, and secondly the peak/off peak pricing rational flips, and thirdly the Govts go after their transport sin taxes
7) A huge strawman, created by rolling items 1 through 6 over and over in the snow, and making it into a bigger snowball that holds only as much substance as the first 6 items.


NB...

There's a finite amount of lithium to make all these batteries, and most of the current, industrial and cheap recycling technologies end up LOSING the lithium to slag for concrete.
 
Eventually, yes for sure.

But what is the time frame for EV to take over, by say comprising at least 75% of the cars on the road? Optimistically I would say 15 years at the earliest. My more realistic estimate is that it will take from 20-25 years to hit this mark.
 
I don't ever see this happening. When I was a little kid,we were supposed to be driving around in flying cars like The Jetson's by 1984
laugh.gif
I remember I had a model of a "1984 Corvette" and it was this flying jet car thingy haha.
 
Originally Posted by aquariuscsm
I don't ever see this happening. When I was a little kid,we were supposed to be driving around in flying cars like The Jetson's by 1984
laugh.gif
I remember I had a model of a "1984 Corvette" and it was this flying jet car thingy haha.



Generally speaking managing a 2D environment is already difficult for a vast number of drivers. Imagine placing them in a 3D environment? One word...Mayhem.
 
I can believe ICE is dead man walking. Horse drawn carriages came and went, yet we still seem to have a few around. Steam locomotives, fly fishing, sailing, a few other things come to mind as to "obsolete" technology.

Truth is, everything comes and goes. Nothing is forever. Not only that, but the less clearcut the advantages are, the slower it is for the item to go away. Look at cassette tapes. CD's failed to lynch them out of our hands. It wasn't until cheap memory and the ability to rip stuff off the internet that both CD&cassette disappeared from cars. Why? Because the MP3 players were much better (if not in quality then in cost and user experience).

ICE someday will be a dim memory. I suspect though that I'll be a dim memory at that time too.
 
Funny topic as the ICE keeps getting better and better, pretty much in every way possible (more power/torque, better MPG, cleaner exhaust, greater reliability, lighter weight, etc.).
 
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When I launched fully electric trucks, 8 years ago for consumer packaged goods delivery, battery prices were supposed to drop 50% in 5 years, by now they should be about 33% of the cost 8 years ago. I don't see that happening. Just like the peak oil discussion, we're always waiting for it.
 
Once sales of EV's hit 10% of all cars cars sold in North America, call me. Until then it's an interesting technology that people with excess money can indulge in. Once the initial Tesla orders are all filled, sales will plummet.

Just got off the Tesla website: www.Tesla.com. A base Model 3 is $64,000.
 
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I believe that to be true but not in my lifetime. First we need a clean source of abundant power and a grid to support it, looks like nuclear is the only viable source IMO.
As it is now they can barely keep the light on when the temp goes over 90. I believe the world will be better off with the demise of the ICE when the problem of moving pollution from one place to another is resolved.
 
Another reason ICE will lose favor as they are getting worse in quality because of the complexity being added. All these sensors, computers, DI, turbos are just adding up to problems for the consumer. Have fun working on these newer cars without a dealer level scan tool. Having to tear an engine apart to change a starter or water pump is just stupid and expensive. I wouldn't buy a new car now, too much maintenance hassle and expense as they age.
 
Originally Posted by Trav
I believe that to be true but not in my lifetime. First we need a clean source of abundant power and a grid to support it, looks like nuclear is the only viable source IMO.
As it is now they can barely keep the light on when the temp goes over 90. I believe the world will be better off with the demise of the ICE when the problem of moving pollution from one place to another is resolved.


Yup. The nukes, hydro and gas have kept the lights on and the AC working this summer in Ontario. We had many days where our 4,400MW of wind was producing 40MW or less. Not a viable strategy for charging EV's. And of course as Shannow touched on, there's the battery issue. Hydrogen also presents a significant portfolio of problems, though the Japanese are working on numerous techniques to extract it more efficiently using high temperature nukes.

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Hasn't there been EV for 100yrs. Still we are talking about battery capacity and range. Until you can drive your EV all week without a charge then pull up to your fuel station and have it full in 10 min or less IMHO EV will never outpace combustion.Charging every day is not an option for so many vehicles.As technology gets better there will likely be a different power source to run you vehicle before straight battery EV gets a hold of anything.
 
Originally Posted by BMWTurboDzl
Originally Posted by aquariuscsm
I don't ever see this happening. When I was a little kid,we were supposed to be driving around in flying cars like The Jetson's by 1984
laugh.gif
I remember I had a model of a "1984 Corvette" and it was this flying jet car thingy haha.



Generally speaking managing a 2D environment is already difficult for a vast number of drivers. Imagine placing them in a 3D environment? One word...Mayhem.


And the carnage when accidents cause things to fall from the sky. Never happen.
 
Originally Posted by jacobsond
Hasn't there been EV for 100yrs. Still we are talking about battery capacity and range. Until you can drive your EV all week without a charge then pull up to your fuel station and have it full in 10 min or less IMHO EV will never outpace combustion.Charging every day is not an option for so many vehicles.As technology gets better there will likely be a different power source to run you vehicle before straight battery EV gets a hold of anything.


Induction charging is already here. In a basic sense it's the same technology used to charge cell phones w/out having the plug them in.

The big problem with EV adoption is building out the charging infrastructure for people who live in multi-family (apartments/condos).
 
I think new technology which would include cordless charging and power basically buried in the roadways to not only charge the battery but to provide the power will be developed. Huge infrastructure demands for sure but looking at the advances over the last 100 years it doesn't seem as daunting as it sounds.
The biggest hindrance to this will be the radical enviromentalist, sure they want electric cars but not the only reasonable source of energy to power them.
I like electric motor power no only for its lower environment impact but the performance of the motor is staggering.
 
Originally Posted by sprite1741
Another reason ICE will lose favor as they are getting worse in quality because of the complexity being added. All these sensors, computers, DI, turbos are just adding up to problems for the consumer. Have fun working on these newer cars without a dealer level scan tool. Having to tear an engine apart to change a starter or water pump is just stupid and expensive. I wouldn't buy a new car now, too much maintenance hassle and expense as they age.


Answer: Car sharing or monthly rental via the OEMs. The days of people actually owning a vehicle are beginning to disappear. Proof is in the fact that 1/3 of new car sales are leases. If so many are leasing why not just have the consumer pay a monthly subscription for access to whatever vehicle they want?

https://www.statista.com/statistics/453122/share-of-new-vehicles-on-lease-usa/
 
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Originally Posted by Trav
I think new technology which would include cordless charging and power basically buried in the roadways to not only charge the battery but to provide the power will be developed. Huge infrastructure demands for sure but looking at the advances over the last 100 years it doesn't seem as daunting as it sounds.
The biggest hindrance to this will be the radical enviromentalist, sure they want electric cars but not the only reasonable source of energy to power them.
I like electric motor power no only for its lower environment impact but the performance of the motor is staggering.




https://www.electrive.com/2018/05/28/bmw-to-sell-first-inductive-charger-for-evs/

Imagine something like this embedded in every parking space?
 
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I see more and more EV on the road almost daily. Along with that, more and more charging stations. My office parking garage has installed 10 parking space chargers in the last 6 months alone with plans on introducing more.

This technology has taken off and i don't see it slowing down.
 
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