When will the combustion engine be obsolete?
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When we have an infrastructure large enough to prove the power needed to charge the batteries. I worked one electric forklifts for many years. Electric vehicles are nice. Battery recharging is the hard point. Even with regen braking the batteries still needed to be changed or recharged each shift.
This, in my opinion, is one of those things that will (for the next few decades) be pushed out and pushed out.
My guess is that the equilibrium point will be sometime in 30-60 years. But gas and diesel engines will still be relevant for a good while thereafter. I think that a big issue is that much of our power is generated by coal and is probably dirtier than a gas engine, plus the power has to be transmitted. In my opinion, cars are already remarkably efficient: a midsized car, for example, can travel a mile on 4 ounces (1/2 cup) of gas. That's pretty incredible. So you will see more and more electric cars in the coming decades but it's not like in 2025 cars will be half electric already. So, short answer, I'd guess at least several decades before they become a majority. (Plus the average age of a car is something like 11-12 years.)
My guess is that the equilibrium point will be sometime in 30-60 years. But gas and diesel engines will still be relevant for a good while thereafter. I think that a big issue is that much of our power is generated by coal and is probably dirtier than a gas engine, plus the power has to be transmitted. In my opinion, cars are already remarkably efficient: a midsized car, for example, can travel a mile on 4 ounces (1/2 cup) of gas. That's pretty incredible. So you will see more and more electric cars in the coming decades but it's not like in 2025 cars will be half electric already. So, short answer, I'd guess at least several decades before they become a majority. (Plus the average age of a car is something like 11-12 years.)
Not in our lifetime. Is the USAF going to have battery operated fighter craft?
By free market forces, probably not for the next 100 years, by legislation, it can happen tomorrow.
IMO two things need to happen:
1) Better power storage; today's batteries in most cases cannot rival a tank of gas for range.
2) Less oil; mankind has a propensity to not make changes until forced to do so.
That said, Elon Musk is slightly ahead of his time; with his network of charging stations you can drive a Tesla coast to coast. If he keeps it running a few more years I may buy one...pricing is the concern right now for most folks.
1) Better power storage; today's batteries in most cases cannot rival a tank of gas for range.
2) Less oil; mankind has a propensity to not make changes until forced to do so.
That said, Elon Musk is slightly ahead of his time; with his network of charging stations you can drive a Tesla coast to coast. If he keeps it running a few more years I may buy one...pricing is the concern right now for most folks.
I don't see it happening in my lifetime.
I hope sooner than later but realistically its going time, technology for batteries needs lots of development work to extend range and current draw, the infrastructure also will take years to be viable if electric is to become the norm and not the exception.
I wish they would work on safer nuclear power, that would solve so many problems but unfortunately lobbying is legal (IMO it should be a felony punishable by imprisonment for bribing politicians like that) and the gas, oil and oil companies wont allow that to happen at any cost as long as 10c worth of oil is in the ground.
Fossil fuels are a horror that needs to be minimized. I am no environmental nut job but we do live in a polluted world and IMHO there is not need to add more to it than we really have to. No don't throw the A/C units out.
Edit: Pleas do not run with post as a political or environmental agenda driven subject, its just my opinion right or wrong.
I wish they would work on safer nuclear power, that would solve so many problems but unfortunately lobbying is legal (IMO it should be a felony punishable by imprisonment for bribing politicians like that) and the gas, oil and oil companies wont allow that to happen at any cost as long as 10c worth of oil is in the ground.
Fossil fuels are a horror that needs to be minimized. I am no environmental nut job but we do live in a polluted world and IMHO there is not need to add more to it than we really have to. No don't throw the A/C units out.
Edit: Pleas do not run with post as a political or environmental agenda driven subject, its just my opinion right or wrong.
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The technology exists/has existed. Batteries are the only thing that has not taken a quantum leap in the last 20-30 years. You could argue lithium batteries, but they are not than much better than lead acid.
As long as there is oil in the ground we will never see electric cars. Too much money to be made with fossil fuels, the same reason we do not have synthetic gasoline.
Every piece of technology has come a LONG way in the last 20-30 years, but we are still burning fossil fuels like it is 1935.
As long as there is oil in the ground we will never see electric cars. Too much money to be made with fossil fuels, the same reason we do not have synthetic gasoline.
Every piece of technology has come a LONG way in the last 20-30 years, but we are still burning fossil fuels like it is 1935.
When uptopia happens: electric cars have same range as the current gas cars, electric cars can be refueled in the same amount of time as gas cars, and finally, the electricity for the cars comes from solar fields.
Is it impossible? No. But it will take time to get there. The internal combustion engine has been under active development for roughly 118 years. With today’s computing power, I’d guess it’ll happen in half that time. There’d be no reason to go for a gas car at that point.
Now turbine engines, that’ll take a much longer time, if ever.
Is it impossible? No. But it will take time to get there. The internal combustion engine has been under active development for roughly 118 years. With today’s computing power, I’d guess it’ll happen in half that time. There’d be no reason to go for a gas car at that point.
Now turbine engines, that’ll take a much longer time, if ever.
Those that seek Utopia usually find misery. What's even worse is that during their noble quest they will cause misery to countless other innocent people that just want to go about their lives.
Originally Posted By: buster
How long do you think it will take before the majority of cars no longer use combustion engines and electric is the norm?
It will always be a constant 10 years away, same as it's been since 1912. They keep depending on the Big Battery Breakthrough. Nature is against it because there is no good way to store electricity. People keep talking about electric cars as though they are "new" technology. They're not. The electric storage battery was invented in 1803. The electric motor was invented in 1832. The Otto engine was invented in 1876. The Diesel engine was invented in 1893. Despite the head start of decades for electrical propulsion technology, internal combustion engines took over for automotive propulsion because it is just better technology for the application.
How long do you think it will take before the majority of cars no longer use combustion engines and electric is the norm?
It will always be a constant 10 years away, same as it's been since 1912. They keep depending on the Big Battery Breakthrough. Nature is against it because there is no good way to store electricity. People keep talking about electric cars as though they are "new" technology. They're not. The electric storage battery was invented in 1803. The electric motor was invented in 1832. The Otto engine was invented in 1876. The Diesel engine was invented in 1893. Despite the head start of decades for electrical propulsion technology, internal combustion engines took over for automotive propulsion because it is just better technology for the application.
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Not until there is a better cost effective battery or other energy source. Ed
Originally Posted By: KrisZ
Those that seek Utopia usually find misery. What's even worse is that during their noble quest they will cause misery to countless other innocent people that just want to go about their lives.
Imagine they want to get get rid of our horse and buggies for those new-fangled horseless carriages.
https://www.fastcompany.com/1174865/horseless-carriage-will-never-catch
Those that seek Utopia usually find misery. What's even worse is that during their noble quest they will cause misery to countless other innocent people that just want to go about their lives.
Imagine they want to get get rid of our horse and buggies for those new-fangled horseless carriages.
https://www.fastcompany.com/1174865/horseless-carriage-will-never-catch
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Originally Posted By: double vanos
When uptopia happens: electric cars have same range as the current gas cars, electric cars can be refueled in the same amount of time as gas cars, and finally, the electricity for the cars comes from solar fields.
Is it impossible? No. But it will take time to get there. The internal combustion engine has been under active development for roughly 118 years. With today’s computing power, I’d guess it’ll happen in half that time. There’d be no reason to go for a gas car at that point.
Now turbine engines, that’ll take a much longer time, if ever.
Solar has several things going against it that make it basically impossible:
1. It can't, independently, follow load
2. It needs batteries to allow it to do any load following and those batteries have finite charge capacity
3. To cover night, you need absolutely insane amounts of battery volume, distributed, that have enough excess capacity to cover every conceivable load scenario over the longest night and reach that state of charge with the worst case scenario solar output while still covering grid demand.
Solar is horribly inflexible, has the worst energy density of any current means of generation and has unpredictable and highly variable output. Planning a system that requires, at all times, large amounts of electricity for essential services, around this is, to be blunt, insane.
SMR nuclear technology is a far more reasonable choice, has 5x the lifespan, can follow load, produces power around the clock, can be built anywhere and doesn't require batteries. It can also be used to produce hydrogen which in turn could be used to replace jet fuel in turbine applications, a scenario that is far, FAR more viable than trying to make a battery-powered jet.
When uptopia happens: electric cars have same range as the current gas cars, electric cars can be refueled in the same amount of time as gas cars, and finally, the electricity for the cars comes from solar fields.
Is it impossible? No. But it will take time to get there. The internal combustion engine has been under active development for roughly 118 years. With today’s computing power, I’d guess it’ll happen in half that time. There’d be no reason to go for a gas car at that point.
Now turbine engines, that’ll take a much longer time, if ever.
Solar has several things going against it that make it basically impossible:
1. It can't, independently, follow load
2. It needs batteries to allow it to do any load following and those batteries have finite charge capacity
3. To cover night, you need absolutely insane amounts of battery volume, distributed, that have enough excess capacity to cover every conceivable load scenario over the longest night and reach that state of charge with the worst case scenario solar output while still covering grid demand.
Solar is horribly inflexible, has the worst energy density of any current means of generation and has unpredictable and highly variable output. Planning a system that requires, at all times, large amounts of electricity for essential services, around this is, to be blunt, insane.
SMR nuclear technology is a far more reasonable choice, has 5x the lifespan, can follow load, produces power around the clock, can be built anywhere and doesn't require batteries. It can also be used to produce hydrogen which in turn could be used to replace jet fuel in turbine applications, a scenario that is far, FAR more viable than trying to make a battery-powered jet.
When introduced electric cars were 30% of the market (1900's) been downhill ever since ,the energy density is not much different per volume (, by pound Lithium beats lead /acid ).The only way they can increase the 'tank' is find some new elements in the periodic table - and how likely is that.
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