Bob Lutz Strikes Again and Again
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That could happen some day. But in 5 years as the headline states, no way.
We should all take a drink, smoke or snort of whatever it is that Bob has ingested. It will put a whole new perspective on reality in your head. Must be nice.
We should all take a drink, smoke or snort of whatever it is that Bob has ingested. It will put a whole new perspective on reality in your head. Must be nice.
Originally Posted By: Reddy45
Originally Posted By: BHopkins
Originally Posted By: PiperOne
What none of these futurists seem to comprehend is...some people actually enjoy driving!!!
I totally get what you are saying. I am one of those. But have you paid attention to one of the differences between generations? I'm on the tail end of the baby boomers. When I was in high school, one of the great moments of life was getting your driver's license. Everyone got theirs as soon as they qualified.
But that isn't true of the kids now. There is a large percent of kids that don't get a driver's license. They are perfectly satisfied to bum rides from others, or ride the bus, or even walk. I can see this younger generation being thrilled with being able to hail a self driving car for a ride, being able to go where they want, but never having to be concerned with all the details of car ownership.
I'm afraid we a dying breed. Forty years from now most of us car lovers will either be dead or in a care center. There will be a few kids that will hang on to the iron that we loved, but for the most part it will all be in museums somewhere, as a testament of how things used to be.
I think you are mostly noticing younger folks who live in dense urban areas. People out in the 'sticks' still love their cars and I hear all sorts of commotion every day that the nearby high school lets out at 2:30 PM. The kids still love driving.
All this yikyak about self driving cars and trucks is just a lot of wishful talking or even virtue signaling.
I wouldn't know about kids in dense urban areas. Except for living in LA for a short time in the mid '70's, I've always lived in smaller and rural communities. My wife's niece lived in rural Alaska for about 5 years without a driver's license. She finally got a driver's license about 10 years out of high school. But it just wasn't important to her for a long time. There were kids that my children went to high school with that just never put a priority on getting their driver's license. I've know some of the younger people at work that don't have licenses. They are perfectly comfortable waiting for a ride after work.
Will all of us be riding in self driving cars in 5 years? No. Ten? I doubt it. Thirty? Maybe. Maybe before I'm dead, I'll see a day where the only driver driven cars will be a few owned by enthusiasts. Gas stations will be far and few between. It is going to happen. The people that try to protect us from ourselves will push for it. You can be sure of that.
Originally Posted By: BHopkins
Originally Posted By: PiperOne
What none of these futurists seem to comprehend is...some people actually enjoy driving!!!
I totally get what you are saying. I am one of those. But have you paid attention to one of the differences between generations? I'm on the tail end of the baby boomers. When I was in high school, one of the great moments of life was getting your driver's license. Everyone got theirs as soon as they qualified.
But that isn't true of the kids now. There is a large percent of kids that don't get a driver's license. They are perfectly satisfied to bum rides from others, or ride the bus, or even walk. I can see this younger generation being thrilled with being able to hail a self driving car for a ride, being able to go where they want, but never having to be concerned with all the details of car ownership.
I'm afraid we a dying breed. Forty years from now most of us car lovers will either be dead or in a care center. There will be a few kids that will hang on to the iron that we loved, but for the most part it will all be in museums somewhere, as a testament of how things used to be.
I think you are mostly noticing younger folks who live in dense urban areas. People out in the 'sticks' still love their cars and I hear all sorts of commotion every day that the nearby high school lets out at 2:30 PM. The kids still love driving.
All this yikyak about self driving cars and trucks is just a lot of wishful talking or even virtue signaling.
I wouldn't know about kids in dense urban areas. Except for living in LA for a short time in the mid '70's, I've always lived in smaller and rural communities. My wife's niece lived in rural Alaska for about 5 years without a driver's license. She finally got a driver's license about 10 years out of high school. But it just wasn't important to her for a long time. There were kids that my children went to high school with that just never put a priority on getting their driver's license. I've know some of the younger people at work that don't have licenses. They are perfectly comfortable waiting for a ride after work.
Will all of us be riding in self driving cars in 5 years? No. Ten? I doubt it. Thirty? Maybe. Maybe before I'm dead, I'll see a day where the only driver driven cars will be a few owned by enthusiasts. Gas stations will be far and few between. It is going to happen. The people that try to protect us from ourselves will push for it. You can be sure of that.
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Originally Posted By: MCompact
The whole autonomous/pod sharing technology can work in a densely populated urban area, but try that with a suburban family with 1-2 kids and piano lessons, ball practice etc.- it ain't happening...
While not a fan, I can see the opposite. No need to take your kids to all those events when you can put them in a pod and it doesn't let them out until they arrive at the destination and the adult in charge acknowledges they have them. If the adult doesn't do that for some reason, the pod contacts you and arranges to bring your kids back to you.
I actually see how this could free the busy parent and how they might be willing to adopt the technology.
The whole autonomous/pod sharing technology can work in a densely populated urban area, but try that with a suburban family with 1-2 kids and piano lessons, ball practice etc.- it ain't happening...
While not a fan, I can see the opposite. No need to take your kids to all those events when you can put them in a pod and it doesn't let them out until they arrive at the destination and the adult in charge acknowledges they have them. If the adult doesn't do that for some reason, the pod contacts you and arranges to bring your kids back to you.
I actually see how this could free the busy parent and how they might be willing to adopt the technology.
Originally Posted By: fenixguy
There will certainly be a shift in the next 50 years in the automotive/autonomous human delivery systems. The younger generation couldn't care less about driving and owning cars, much less maintaining them. I'm in the last generation (roughly) that getting a driver's license was a major milestone for. I love driving, owning, and wrenching on my vehicles.
That being said, I'm not sure that not having a car payment, not wanting/having a garage, not dealing with commuting, not sleeping on a long trip, not constantly worrying if that on-coming car is going to go over the yellow line, etc... are bad things.
I'm 22 and couldn't live without my driving license and my own vehicle(s) that I chose. I care about how it drives, how it looks, how it performs, maintaining it, customizing it, etc. A lot of people my age aren't like that, but I think there are plenty.
There will certainly be a shift in the next 50 years in the automotive/autonomous human delivery systems. The younger generation couldn't care less about driving and owning cars, much less maintaining them. I'm in the last generation (roughly) that getting a driver's license was a major milestone for. I love driving, owning, and wrenching on my vehicles.
That being said, I'm not sure that not having a car payment, not wanting/having a garage, not dealing with commuting, not sleeping on a long trip, not constantly worrying if that on-coming car is going to go over the yellow line, etc... are bad things.
I'm 22 and couldn't live without my driving license and my own vehicle(s) that I chose. I care about how it drives, how it looks, how it performs, maintaining it, customizing it, etc. A lot of people my age aren't like that, but I think there are plenty.
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Meanwhile, people are truly enjoying Tesla's big sedan that goes 0-60 in under 3 seconds. Those that think the good times are behind us are 100% incorrect. Here in America, we value and desire performance, along with capability. We tend to reject the "elio" car in favor of something much bigger and more practical. We tend to reject the "restrictive" future projected by those without clear vision.
I most certainly will not force my family to fold themselves into one of those death traps. Instead, I'll choose what works.
I most certainly will not force my family to fold themselves into one of those death traps. Instead, I'll choose what works.
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Originally Posted By: dogememe
I'm 22 and couldn't live without my driving license and my own vehicle(s) that I chose. I care about how it drives, how it looks, how it performs, maintaining it, customizing it, etc. A lot of people my age aren't like that, but I think there are plenty.
Many think young people are different today, but that's not so. As a young man, I went car-less for years. Choosing instead to ride a motorcycle, then a bicycle. Took the train, the bus, cabs and so on. Cab's were not always stupidly expensive, nor was the train. Entire generations of people grew up and went to school where cars were not required.
Also, when young people start growing a family, I promise bringing home the groceries the infant and the toddler on the bus or train will get old within a week. Going to homeless depot to get what you need will be near impossible, uber or not. Those non drivers will suddenly discover the automobile, if they plan on being at work on time, while also feeding the kids and providing for the household needs.
I'm 22 and couldn't live without my driving license and my own vehicle(s) that I chose. I care about how it drives, how it looks, how it performs, maintaining it, customizing it, etc. A lot of people my age aren't like that, but I think there are plenty.
Many think young people are different today, but that's not so. As a young man, I went car-less for years. Choosing instead to ride a motorcycle, then a bicycle. Took the train, the bus, cabs and so on. Cab's were not always stupidly expensive, nor was the train. Entire generations of people grew up and went to school where cars were not required.
Also, when young people start growing a family, I promise bringing home the groceries the infant and the toddler on the bus or train will get old within a week. Going to homeless depot to get what you need will be near impossible, uber or not. Those non drivers will suddenly discover the automobile, if they plan on being at work on time, while also feeding the kids and providing for the household needs.
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I currently enjoy driving and because I live 2 or 3 miles from the nearest town drive by necessity as well.
I can envisage a time when I will no longer be able to drive, due to health problems related to aging and /or eventual loss of license. At that point it would be difficult to continue to live where we do. While I could "move into town" I'd rather stay here. At that point, having a self driving vehicle will be a god-send.
I'm currently thinking of buying an interesting older vehicle,just for fun, and also planning to be an early adopter of self driving technology.
I can envisage a time when I will no longer be able to drive, due to health problems related to aging and /or eventual loss of license. At that point it would be difficult to continue to live where we do. While I could "move into town" I'd rather stay here. At that point, having a self driving vehicle will be a god-send.
I'm currently thinking of buying an interesting older vehicle,just for fun, and also planning to be an early adopter of self driving technology.
Originally Posted By: dishdude
Self driving cars are coming, no question. And why own one when you can just request one on your phone? I think he's onto something.
All that's true. Some of the rest is gibberish, though.
It can be a generational thing, just like horses. One can still technically use a horse to move around this city, as was done many decades ago. It's a lot less practical than it used to be, though. Finding hitching posts, places to get feed, and a blacksmith is difficult, not to mention that you can't actually keep them in the city.
Eventually, the ordinary driver controlled automobile infrastructure will start to disappear, along with that type of vehicle itself. I certainly have no clue about timelines in my little "prediction," but you don't need a bunch of legislative changes or giant programs to get rid of the ordinary automobile. When something becomes more convenient and cost effective, it will take over. I'm not holding my breath, though, as to when it does happen. As has been pointed out by others, much depends on people's usage patterns and geographical locations. You take a town of 50 people in Saskatchewan, that's a lot different than L.A. or New York, with totally different problems, not to mention totally different needs and different logistics and infrastructure.
Self driving cars are coming, no question. And why own one when you can just request one on your phone? I think he's onto something.
All that's true. Some of the rest is gibberish, though.
It can be a generational thing, just like horses. One can still technically use a horse to move around this city, as was done many decades ago. It's a lot less practical than it used to be, though. Finding hitching posts, places to get feed, and a blacksmith is difficult, not to mention that you can't actually keep them in the city.
Eventually, the ordinary driver controlled automobile infrastructure will start to disappear, along with that type of vehicle itself. I certainly have no clue about timelines in my little "prediction," but you don't need a bunch of legislative changes or giant programs to get rid of the ordinary automobile. When something becomes more convenient and cost effective, it will take over. I'm not holding my breath, though, as to when it does happen. As has been pointed out by others, much depends on people's usage patterns and geographical locations. You take a town of 50 people in Saskatchewan, that's a lot different than L.A. or New York, with totally different problems, not to mention totally different needs and different logistics and infrastructure.
Originally Posted By: dishdude
Self driving cars are coming, no question. And why own one when you can just request one on your phone? I think he's onto something.
I'm thinking of all the germs that will be on those public self driving cars that he's calling "modules."
Self driving cars are coming, no question. And why own one when you can just request one on your phone? I think he's onto something.
I'm thinking of all the germs that will be on those public self driving cars that he's calling "modules."
Originally Posted By: Merkava_4
Originally Posted By: dishdude
Self driving cars are coming, no question. And why own one when you can just request one on your phone? I think he's onto something.
I'm thinking of all the germs that will be on those public self driving cars that he's calling "modules."
Ever go out to eat?
https://www.today.com/food/6-germiest-places-restaurant-t106697
Originally Posted By: dishdude
Self driving cars are coming, no question. And why own one when you can just request one on your phone? I think he's onto something.
I'm thinking of all the germs that will be on those public self driving cars that he's calling "modules."
Ever go out to eat?
https://www.today.com/food/6-germiest-places-restaurant-t106697
Originally Posted By: dishdude
Ever go out to eat?
https://www.today.com/food/6-germiest-places-restaurant-t106697
Yes and I always bring my own plastic fork.
Ever go out to eat?
https://www.today.com/food/6-germiest-places-restaurant-t106697
Yes and I always bring my own plastic fork.
Originally Posted By: Merkava_4
Originally Posted By: dishdude
Ever go out to eat?
https://www.today.com/food/6-germiest-places-restaurant-t106697
Yes and I always bring my own plastic fork.
Menu and table too?
Originally Posted By: dishdude
Ever go out to eat?
https://www.today.com/food/6-germiest-places-restaurant-t106697
Yes and I always bring my own plastic fork.
Menu and table too?
Originally Posted By: javacontour
While not a fan, I can see the opposite. No need to take your kids to all those events when you can put them in a pod and it doesn't let them out until they arrive at the destination and the adult in charge acknowledges they have them.
I actually see how this could free the busy parent and how they might be willing to adopt the technology.
Fuggget that!
Some of the best & open conversations I have with my daughter are when driving.
I can't explain why that is - - but it just is.
I'll take it.
While not a fan, I can see the opposite. No need to take your kids to all those events when you can put them in a pod and it doesn't let them out until they arrive at the destination and the adult in charge acknowledges they have them.
I actually see how this could free the busy parent and how they might be willing to adopt the technology.
Fuggget that!
Some of the best & open conversations I have with my daughter are when driving.
I can't explain why that is - - but it just is.
I'll take it.
Originally Posted By: Merkava_4
Originally Posted By: dishdude
Ever go out to eat?
https://www.today.com/food/6-germiest-places-restaurant-t106697
Yes and I always bring my own plastic fork.
that's because you're not allowed to use metal utensils.
remember the "incident",when you were a kid?
have a good day, man.
Originally Posted By: dishdude
Ever go out to eat?
https://www.today.com/food/6-germiest-places-restaurant-t106697
Yes and I always bring my own plastic fork.
that's because you're not allowed to use metal utensils.
remember the "incident",when you were a kid?
have a good day, man.
Originally Posted By: Cujet
Originally Posted By: dogememe
I'm 22 and couldn't live without my driving license and my own vehicle(s) that I chose. I care about how it drives, how it looks, how it performs, maintaining it, customizing it, etc. A lot of people my age aren't like that, but I think there are plenty.
Many think young people are different today, but that's not so. As a young man, I went car-less for years. Choosing instead to ride a motorcycle, then a bicycle. Took the train, the bus, cabs and so on. Cab's were not always stupidly expensive, nor was the train. Entire generations of people grew up and went to school where cars were not required.
Also, when young people start growing a family, I promise bringing home the groceries the infant and the toddler on the bus or train will get old within a week. Going to homeless depot to get what you need will be near impossible, uber or not. Those non drivers will suddenly discover the automobile, if they plan on being at work on time, while also feeding the kids and providing for the household needs.
This 100%.
In college I knew many people in their 20s that didn't have their license or own a car. It certainly wasn't because they didn't want one. Many had thousands and thousands of dollars in student loans, and had a part-time job on campus. They really didn't need a car, so eliminating it as an expense helped them save. Many of these students grew up in the city, or areas where they really didn't need a car. For me, a car is essential. I wouldn't have been able to get to my first job without a car. If I could even ride my bike there, it would've taken a whole day. I worked on a few neighboring farms during middle and high school before I had my license, and even those jobs I had to ride an ATV or dirt bike to get there. I know with two of the local colleges, freshman who live on campus are not allowed to store cars in campus lots.
Originally Posted By: dogememe
I'm 22 and couldn't live without my driving license and my own vehicle(s) that I chose. I care about how it drives, how it looks, how it performs, maintaining it, customizing it, etc. A lot of people my age aren't like that, but I think there are plenty.
Many think young people are different today, but that's not so. As a young man, I went car-less for years. Choosing instead to ride a motorcycle, then a bicycle. Took the train, the bus, cabs and so on. Cab's were not always stupidly expensive, nor was the train. Entire generations of people grew up and went to school where cars were not required.
Also, when young people start growing a family, I promise bringing home the groceries the infant and the toddler on the bus or train will get old within a week. Going to homeless depot to get what you need will be near impossible, uber or not. Those non drivers will suddenly discover the automobile, if they plan on being at work on time, while also feeding the kids and providing for the household needs.
This 100%.
In college I knew many people in their 20s that didn't have their license or own a car. It certainly wasn't because they didn't want one. Many had thousands and thousands of dollars in student loans, and had a part-time job on campus. They really didn't need a car, so eliminating it as an expense helped them save. Many of these students grew up in the city, or areas where they really didn't need a car. For me, a car is essential. I wouldn't have been able to get to my first job without a car. If I could even ride my bike there, it would've taken a whole day. I worked on a few neighboring farms during middle and high school before I had my license, and even those jobs I had to ride an ATV or dirt bike to get there. I know with two of the local colleges, freshman who live on campus are not allowed to store cars in campus lots.
Who is Bob Lutz?
I think he's too optimistic.
Change will come, but not for a while, and it won't be complete; no one solution fits all scenarios.
But, for those who question Lutz's credentials, do some homework.
This piece wasn't penned by some tree-hugger environmentalist, bean counter, or detached academic who knows nothing about automobiles or the industry.
It came from someone who knows cars, the car business, and is a Car Guy himself.
He may not always be right, or say it in a nice manner, but he can't be dismissed, even if only for entertainment value.
BTW, he's not the only ex-Big Three auto exec expecting Mobility As A Service to be the future, or involved with exploring that business.
Change will come, but not for a while, and it won't be complete; no one solution fits all scenarios.
But, for those who question Lutz's credentials, do some homework.
This piece wasn't penned by some tree-hugger environmentalist, bean counter, or detached academic who knows nothing about automobiles or the industry.
It came from someone who knows cars, the car business, and is a Car Guy himself.
He may not always be right, or say it in a nice manner, but he can't be dismissed, even if only for entertainment value.
BTW, he's not the only ex-Big Three auto exec expecting Mobility As A Service to be the future, or involved with exploring that business.
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