GM Electric Cars: Resistance is Futile (& V/I too)

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I've been telling people for the past couple of years now is the time to buy your new V8 muscle car. A 2025 Mustang V8 5.0 GT isn't going to happen.
 
Hybrids and fully electric vehicles are all basically used frequently right now.
Low-RPM torque from electric motors are very satisfying to drive away from stop lights. Peppy.
My guess is, in 10 years, hybrids will be 50% of vehicles, and full-electrics will be 40%, with 10% still gasoline or natural gas vehicles.
 
I've driven a BMW i3 and Tesla Model S, and now I'd like to convince a Chevy dealership to hand me the keys to a Bolt. I hear they are very quick and handle OK.
 
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Originally Posted By: oil_film_movies
Hybrids and fully electric vehicles are all basically used frequently right now.
Low-RPM torque from electric motors are very satisfying to drive away from stop lights. Peppy.
My guess is, in 10 years, hybrids will be 50% of vehicles, and full-electrics will be 40%, with 10% still gasoline or natural gas vehicles.


In just ten years?
Umm, no.
You'd have to be already starting to build the power generation capacity and distribution infrastructure for EVs to be even half of the 40% figure you posit for this to be even remotely possible.
More hybrids, maybe, but their relative advantage in fuel economy has shrunk in comparing like to like with the continued development of IC engine powered cars and the most efficient hybrids require grid charging to realize their low fuel consumption. See above for the problems with this.
IC engine cars down to 10% in ten years?
Not even in the realm of possibility.
Unless this country enacts the same confiscatory fuel taxes that Europe has enjoyed (labored under) for decades, there is no likelihood of the IC engine being so rapidly abandoned in this country. Look at what our fellow countrymen are buying. Those SUVs and pickups are neither hybrids nor EVs and efficient sedans are dirt cheap due to relatively lower demand.
I think your predictions have merit. I just think you're way wrong on the timeline.
 
Electric cars have their places but where will the electricity come from? California's power grid can't handle the air conditioner load on hot days for example.
 
Originally Posted By: CT8
Electric cars have their places butwherewill the electricity come from? Californias power grid can't handle the air conditioner load on hot days for example.
No choice but to build more powerplants (nat gas, nuke), more hydroelectric, and more wind/solar. We have to do that anyway in the U.S. because we already import 1,000,000 people per year into this country.
 
Originally Posted By: BrocLuno
From 1% to 50% is a huge leap. Maybe by 2050 ...
I should have said "of all new vehicles sold". My bad. I'm saying in 10 years 50% sold will be hybrids; 40% sold will be full-electric. The rest normal stuff we see today.
 
so you are saying the business model of the Speed Shop i work at is bleak? Ouch! 67 years in business down the drain soon.... I thought muscle cars were so in vogue.
 
Not as hopeful on full EVs. Hybrids are compelling at this point for superior mpgs and low end torque. It doesn't take nearly as much battery and you still benefit the energy density of gas. PHEVs are the future, imo.
 
Originally Posted By: JHZR2
Not as hopeful on full EVs. Hybrids are compelling at this point for superior mpgs and low end torque. It doesn't take nearly as much battery and you still benefit the energy density of gas. PHEVs are the future, imo.
You can get 43+ MPG (half city, half hiway) in a 3600 lb vehicle using only a 1.4 kWH li-ion battery (Cmax non-plugin), with 0-60 in 7.9 seconds, not a snail. ... Compare that small battery to a full-electrics Chevy Bolt's huge expensive 60 kWH battery which you can't just gas up and go; try a 600-mile trip with that facing you, as Russian Roulette with lengthy stays at charge stations is the problem on long road trips.

The PHEV CMax and Volt gets you a few miles, but now you must pay for and carry around BOTH a larger battery AND an engine+tank.

Plug-in hybrids (PHEV) are fine, but non-plugin hybrids (HEVs) are even cheaper and very good on MPG. I'm not sure what mix the market will pick on PHEVs vs. HEVs, but price-sensitive vehicles (most!!) will be the HEV type.
 
Originally Posted By: oil_film_movies
Hybrids and fully electric vehicles are all basically used frequently right now.
Low-RPM torque from electric motors are very satisfying to drive away from stop lights. Peppy.
My guess is, in 10 years, hybrids will be 50% of vehicles, and full-electrics will be 40%, with 10% still gasoline or natural gas vehicles.


Try more like 20-30 years. Full electrics still need to drop by 50% in cost to compete with cheap oil. And as electrics take share, oil demand falls....keeping oil low cost for a long time.
 
Sure, but nobody sees anything like that kind of fuel economy driving their Cmax.
There are plenty of places you can look at for real fuel consumption figures.
EPA estimates for a vehicle programmed to max them (bad pun) don't always apply in real use.
 
I have seen the future, and it is mostly cute and cube-shaped,(or its a hybrid, or its a HUGE scooter.)

(Just back from Japan)
 
I wonder how may electrocutions occurred in crashes? Seriously, wiring can be up to 500 VDC!

How the world has changed, if I flash back I remember the freedom from guilt when filling a tank for $5
and driving all day with the wind in my hair! LOL!
 
Originally Posted By: fdcg27
Sure, but nobody sees anything like that kind of fuel economy driving their Cmax.
There are plenty of places you can look at for real fuel consumption figures.
EPA estimates for a vehicle programmed to max them (bad pun) don't always apply in real use.

Fuelly.com, with a decent sample size, exactly equals the EPA MPG estimates at about 41 MPG. WudaYouKnow, the EPA is right....
Mine has been getting 45 MPG average for a year now. I stated "43+" since I don't think I drive especially frugally, and the 2017 models with software algorithm tweaking is already showing 44 MPG on Fuelly.com. Complicated, but thats why I said "43+".

Anyway, 43+ is very realistic and is the norm now for hybrid Fusions and the hybrid CMax, both at about 3600 lbs. It will get gradually better between now and 2028 too. Heavier cars get less MPG, lighter ones get more, putting the 43 MPG as about the national average for all hybrids going forward to 2028.
 
Before I start, eliminate any historical politics (or histrionics) from my following statement in your replies. This is on a scientific level ONLY. We're tossing billions of dollars towards fringe technologies like hybrids/EVs while demonizing gasoline & diesel, which in some form or another have been the primary movers of the entire world for over a century. I'm no tree hugger but I can respect conservation, but it BLOWS MY MIND that the EV thumpers magically disregard all of the hazardous waste generated from these battery packs, and the huge amounts of energy and resources that are expended and consumed during their manufacturing. It's the dirty little secret that EV pushers like to forget. Anyways, my point: there are plenty of other techniques to improve MPG, and why are synthetic fuels not discussed? Not bio-fuels made from edibles that require large government subsidies and price fixing to be viable; Germany made synthetic fuels back in WWII and yet there are no developments on that front.

The infrastructure for gasoline didn't appear overnight, and that was with an abundant supply. Infrastructure to reliably support millions of EVs is neither cheap nor quick. The final dirty secret that EV thumpers tend to forget is, where do you think all of the electricity comes from? Oh yeah, either oil fired or nuclear power plants. Only about a tenth of the grid power comes from renewables, which are not exactly 'clean' to manufacture in the first place, either.
 
Originally Posted By: oil_film_movies
Originally Posted By: JHZR2
Not as hopeful on full EVs. Hybrids are compelling at this point for superior mpgs and low end torque. It doesn't take nearly as much battery and you still benefit the energy density of gas. PHEVs are the future, imo.
You can get 43+ MPG (half city, half hiway) in a 3600 lb vehicle using only a 1.4 kWH li-ion battery (Cmax non-plugin), with 0-60 in 7.9 seconds, not a snail. ... Compare that small battery to a full-electrics Chevy Bolt's huge expensive 60 kWH battery which you can't just gas up and go; try a 600-mile trip with that facing you, as Russian Roulette with lengthy stays at charge stations is the problem on long road trips.

The PHEV CMax and Volt gets you a few miles, but now you must pay for and carry around BOTH a larger battery AND an engine+tank.

Plug-in hybrids (PHEV) are fine, but non-plugin hybrids (HEVs) are even cheaper and very good on MPG. I'm not sure what mix the market will pick on PHEVs vs. HEVs, but price-sensitive vehicles (most!!) will be the HEV type.


I dont deny that, but it is highly likely that electric mode only will become mandated more and more, especially in congested and populated areas. A car that can switch to that mode and get a reasonable range, and better yet, charge itself back up slowly once back on real fuel, will be a winner.

I agree that a PHEV is a more expensive battery, but its a heck of a lot less battery and money than a true EV, and retains all the goodness of running off liquid fuels. It just optimizes the consumption.

Originally Posted By: Shannow
Where are we going to get all this future electricity ?


Liquid fuels, of course. Cant beat the density. Its just about how you employ them...
 
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