Originally Posted By: Mr Nice
Hopefully very soon.
Odd bitog behavior......
Hopefully very soon.
Odd bitog behavior......
Investors....come in please!
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http://seekingalpha.com/article/4047362-...lar-bull-market
The market hasn't even hit Euphoria yet.
"When it comes to market sentiment, the latest data from AAII shows the same picture that has been in place for a while now. Bullish sentiment this week came in at 33.09%. This is the fifth straight week that bullish sentiment has been below 40%, and the 111th straight week that bulls have failed to take a majority. This is the longest sub 50% run in bullish sentiment in the history of the AAII survey.
Given the fact that all of the major indices are at all-time highs, one would expect a little bit more conviction. The prior record for the longest streak without a majority of bulls was from the start of 1993 through early 1995. During that period, the S&P 500 generally traded in a range with an upward bias where the S&P 500 rose 11.8%.
I am sure the very first time bullish sentiment does reach 50%, the cries of euphoria will be heard everywhere. Here is the takeaway about sentiment that everyone needs to understand. In the past when bullish sentiment finally did exceed 50%, equities surged with the S&P 500 rising over 14% in the next six months."
So much more long term upward potential. Many many investors reallocated their portfolios to conservative/moderate since the crash in 08; as they review their portfolio performance and see it vastly under performing, they will start to chase. Hence money will come out of bonds and into stocks.
This scenario has played out many times historically where the talk on the street regarding current events, politics etc. doesn't align with what stocks are doing; underneath the curtain, the market see growth and better times ahead and it simply just goes up leaving sideliners and bears in the dust.
The market hasn't even hit Euphoria yet.
"When it comes to market sentiment, the latest data from AAII shows the same picture that has been in place for a while now. Bullish sentiment this week came in at 33.09%. This is the fifth straight week that bullish sentiment has been below 40%, and the 111th straight week that bulls have failed to take a majority. This is the longest sub 50% run in bullish sentiment in the history of the AAII survey.
Given the fact that all of the major indices are at all-time highs, one would expect a little bit more conviction. The prior record for the longest streak without a majority of bulls was from the start of 1993 through early 1995. During that period, the S&P 500 generally traded in a range with an upward bias where the S&P 500 rose 11.8%.
I am sure the very first time bullish sentiment does reach 50%, the cries of euphoria will be heard everywhere. Here is the takeaway about sentiment that everyone needs to understand. In the past when bullish sentiment finally did exceed 50%, equities surged with the S&P 500 rising over 14% in the next six months."
So much more long term upward potential. Many many investors reallocated their portfolios to conservative/moderate since the crash in 08; as they review their portfolio performance and see it vastly under performing, they will start to chase. Hence money will come out of bonds and into stocks.
This scenario has played out many times historically where the talk on the street regarding current events, politics etc. doesn't align with what stocks are doing; underneath the curtain, the market see growth and better times ahead and it simply just goes up leaving sideliners and bears in the dust.
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Fidelity keeps lowering our 401K fees which is very good.
Originally Posted By: Gasbuggy
Though judging by your post count you don't get out much, probably not an ideal sample of normal.
Gasbuggy ... don't make this personal with me, and keep your personal attacks to yourself. Give it time, and we'll all see who's more right than wrong.
Though judging by your post count you don't get out much, probably not an ideal sample of normal.
Gasbuggy ... don't make this personal with me, and keep your personal attacks to yourself. Give it time, and we'll all see who's more right than wrong.
Originally Posted By: ZeeOSix
Originally Posted By: Gasbuggy
Though judging by your post count you don't get out much, probably not an ideal sample of normal.
Gasbuggy ... don't make this personal with me, and keep your personal attacks to yourself. Give it time, and we'll all see who's more right than wrong.
Ahhhhhhhhhh, the great refuge of the bear. TIME. (which ironically is exactly what makes long term savers/investors rich...
) So the market historically goes up with an average CAGR of roughly 8% with periods of crashes, corrections, and volatility that any investor with half a brain knows will occur, but WHEN those crashes occur, and you've proven you can't even remotely time them, YOU are the one who's right???
The preson who is more right is the one who has more money in retirement. Period, end of story, that is the entire point of the exercise, and when you sit on the sidelines in fear of the next crash, you're time value of money is getting obliterated.
Originally Posted By: Gasbuggy
Though judging by your post count you don't get out much, probably not an ideal sample of normal.
Gasbuggy ... don't make this personal with me, and keep your personal attacks to yourself. Give it time, and we'll all see who's more right than wrong.
Ahhhhhhhhhh, the great refuge of the bear. TIME. (which ironically is exactly what makes long term savers/investors rich...
The preson who is more right is the one who has more money in retirement. Period, end of story, that is the entire point of the exercise, and when you sit on the sidelines in fear of the next crash, you're time value of money is getting obliterated.
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Nicely said Drew...
Originally Posted By: Drew99GT
Originally Posted By: ZeeOSix
Originally Posted By: Gasbuggy
Though judging by your post count you don't get out much, probably not an ideal sample of normal.
Gasbuggy ... don't make this personal with me, and keep your personal attacks to yourself. Give it time, and we'll all see who's more right than wrong.
Ahhhhhhhhhh, the great refuge of the bear. TIME. (which ironically is exactly what makes long term savers/investors rich...
) So the market historically goes up with an average CAGR of roughly 8% with periods of crashes, corrections, and volatility that any investor with half a brain knows will occur, but WHEN those crashes occur, and you've proven you can't even remotely time them, YOU are the one who's right???
The preson who is more right is the one who has more money in retirement. Period, end of story, that is the entire point of the exercise, and when you sit on the sidelines in fear of the next crash, you're time value of money is getting obliterated.
Don't worry, I've done plenty well over the years - zero worries about cash flow in retirement. All I'm saying is don't get your hopes up too high or you'll end up with your pants down when you least expect it. There is nothing wrong with being cautious with your investments. People who get too nuts with trying to beat the market all the time usually end up the biggest losers. If people have the actual skill to time crashes well, then that's great, but nobody is perfect at it. In the end, it all comes down to how much you're willing to risk and lose instead of wanting to make.
Originally Posted By: ZeeOSix
Originally Posted By: Gasbuggy
Though judging by your post count you don't get out much, probably not an ideal sample of normal.
Gasbuggy ... don't make this personal with me, and keep your personal attacks to yourself. Give it time, and we'll all see who's more right than wrong.
Ahhhhhhhhhh, the great refuge of the bear. TIME. (which ironically is exactly what makes long term savers/investors rich...
The preson who is more right is the one who has more money in retirement. Period, end of story, that is the entire point of the exercise, and when you sit on the sidelines in fear of the next crash, you're time value of money is getting obliterated.
Don't worry, I've done plenty well over the years - zero worries about cash flow in retirement. All I'm saying is don't get your hopes up too high or you'll end up with your pants down when you least expect it. There is nothing wrong with being cautious with your investments. People who get too nuts with trying to beat the market all the time usually end up the biggest losers. If people have the actual skill to time crashes well, then that's great, but nobody is perfect at it. In the end, it all comes down to how much you're willing to risk and lose instead of wanting to make.
Does this cart include the dividends over those 11 years ?
Warstud, those charts look fantastic. Long term breakouts of decades long consolidation. look at what markets did after they broke out of similar patterns in the 60s. They rallied for 20+ years.
That chart is like the Rosetta Stone. If you don't "get it" after looking at that chart, you never will.
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Originally Posted By: cjcride
That chart is like the Rosetta Stone. If you don't "get it" after looking at that chart, you never will.
I don't get it.
What does the chart show?
Does it tell me when to invest? How to invest? When to time the market?
If thousands of Wall Street guys with advanced degrees can't time the market, but you guys can, just by using the chart, why aren't you all billionaires?
That chart is like the Rosetta Stone. If you don't "get it" after looking at that chart, you never will.
I don't get it.
What does the chart show?
Does it tell me when to invest? How to invest? When to time the market?
If thousands of Wall Street guys with advanced degrees can't time the market, but you guys can, just by using the chart, why aren't you all billionaires?
Originally Posted By: Warstud
Originally Posted By: Astro14
Does it tell me when to invest?
When the Red vertical dashed line is present....it's time to Sell.
When the Green vertical dashed line is present....it's time to Buy.
Anyone can look in the past and tell when it was time to buy or sell. One doesn't need a fancy chart for that determination.
But the chart stops today.
What should I do tomorrow?
How does all this pretty charting tell me when to buy or sell in the future?
What I should've done in the past is irrelevant. Anyone has perfect clarity in hindsight.
Originally Posted By: Astro14
Does it tell me when to invest?
When the Red vertical dashed line is present....it's time to Sell.
When the Green vertical dashed line is present....it's time to Buy.
Anyone can look in the past and tell when it was time to buy or sell. One doesn't need a fancy chart for that determination.
But the chart stops today.
What should I do tomorrow?
How does all this pretty charting tell me when to buy or sell in the future?
What I should've done in the past is irrelevant. Anyone has perfect clarity in hindsight.
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Deregulation in some form or fashion is coming. I think the "animal spirits" are going to be unleashed to some degree, propelling this market higher over time. Of course it won't be in a straight line. Personally, after adding undervalued pharma recently, I am deploying new cash in levered Emerging market ETF's, 3X bull funds.
Don't time the market it doesn't work out.
We have the Andex chart up here. It's similar yet with a lot more detail.
The main message is that going long will always pay. Especially if your time horizon is at least 5 years.
Just keep a well balanced portfolio so that you can buy the dips.
We have the Andex chart up here. It's similar yet with a lot more detail.
The main message is that going long will always pay. Especially if your time horizon is at least 5 years.
Just keep a well balanced portfolio so that you can buy the dips.
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Originally Posted By: gfh77665
Deregulation in some form or fashion is coming. I think the "animal spirits" are going to be unleashed to some degree, propelling this market higher over time. Of course it won't be in a straight line. Personally, after adding undervalued pharma recently, I am deploying new cash in levered Emerging market ETF's, 3X bull funds.
Yep, someone is wanting to spend big $$$ here in the USA to make it even better...
Deregulation in some form or fashion is coming. I think the "animal spirits" are going to be unleashed to some degree, propelling this market higher over time. Of course it won't be in a straight line. Personally, after adding undervalued pharma recently, I am deploying new cash in levered Emerging market ETF's, 3X bull funds.
Yep, someone is wanting to spend big $$$ here in the USA to make it even better...
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