Wards article on CVT's

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...the global share held by manual transmissions and 6-speed and lower-gear automatics fell from 80% in 2010 to 70% in 2015. That share is going to decrease further to an estimated 50% over the next five years, according to a WardsAuto forecast.


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Combined sales of CVTs, DCTs and higher-gear automatic transmissions will total 50 million, or 49% of global demand in 2020, up from 31.5%, according to WardsAuto. Included will be 15.3 million CVTs, up 45% from 2015; 17 million DCTs, up 71%; and 17.8 million higher-gear automatics, up 178%.


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Sales of manual transmissions in 2020 will be relatively flat at 40.6 million units, up marginally from 39.1 million in 2015, while demand for lower-gear automatic transmissions – six speeds or less – will fall more than 50% to 10.8 million.
 
This thread will give the "tech phobia guys" here on BITOG something to whine about.
 
I would have thought manual transmission sales would have dropped not stayed flat or slightly higher.
 
What shocked me was that CVT's are not as efficient as multispeed autos or DCT. I had thought they were better.

FWIW, the CVT in my 2013 Maxima seems well suited to the torque of the VQ35DE engine...and yes..I've said that before :eek:)
 
So the market for transmissions is 101 million / year and 40% of that market is still manual transmissions.

Shocked the manual still has that big of a piece of the world-wide transmission market.
 
Originally Posted By: KGMtech
What shocked me was that CVT's are not as efficient as multispeed autos or DCT. I had thought they were better.

FWIW, the CVT in my 2013 Maxima seems well suited to the torque of the VQ35DE engine...and yes..I've said that before :eek:)


It takes power to hold the cones together and make up for the tiny amount of slippage in the belt/chain. That power comes from somewhere. A true automatic can lock the torque converter, lock the gear in, and reduce hydraulic losses to a significant degree.

I'm shocked that Wards still says manuals are 5% more efficient than even the best automated/automatic transmission. Although manuals don't pump much fluid around and can't slip unless either the clutch is worn or somebody makes it.
 
What I, IMHO think killing manuals are 4 things:

1. The emission spike from the shifting. I suspect OEM's are not charging the full cost of an auto/CVT/DCT to further discourage manuals.
2. the ongoing improved efficiency and lower unit cost of automatic/CVT/DCT.
3. people don't want to learn stick.
4. Drivers want their hands free to drink/text/other.
 
Originally Posted By: Miller88
I'm okay with CVTs as long as they can reliably run 200K.

I would have no problem buying a Honda or a Toyota with a CVT

We didn't know that are 15 CRV had a CVT when we bought it. I probably would have steered clear if I knew. I guess I just get to hope and pray!
 
I have a '13 Rogue with a CVT. Most Nissans do now. I miss the shifting of a regular transmission. When I am accelerating on an on-ramp, I wave out the window to cars behind me that it's going to take me a while to get up to speed.
The CVT would be a deal-killer on my next car; which eliminates quite a few choices. My other car is a '16 Camry 4cyl auto. Not a rocket either but better at getting up to speed.
 
Originally Posted By: FordBroncoVWJeta
Originally Posted By: Miller88
I'm okay with CVTs as long as they can reliably run 200K.

I would have no problem buying a Honda or a Toyota with a CVT

We didn't know that are 15 CRV had a CVT when we bought it. I probably would have steered clear if I knew. I guess I just get to hope and pray!




I haven't read that they blow up. Have you?
 
Originally Posted By: Kestas
5. Operating a clutch is a pain in stop and go traffic.


My wife grew up in Brooklyn, her first car was a stick, driving it in Brooklyn and she prefers sticks despite going to NYC several times a year to
visit her parents.
 
I see the desire for manual and the so called "Anti-Tech" crowd as similar in their reasoning. The early adopters of the high tech stuff generally thinking they are smarter than the rest need to account for the simple mans economics. One high tech new automatic trans has hundreds of ways it can fail and a much smaller number of people that can fix it. So it costs many times more to fix if it breaks down and will probably need to visit a dealership or high end shop. The simple mans economics knows that the tried and true manual trans can be fixed by a decent mechanic anywhere and is as efficient as or more so than any automatic.

When I was a kid we had a couple of manual Fiats, a 428 i believe. Anyway those got ~45mpg on a long trip ...and that was 40 years ago.
 
Originally Posted By: CKN
This thread will give the "tech phobia guys" here on BITOG something to whine about.


I am not tech phobic. However, I know that upcoming deadlines on regulations is driving the introduction of some things before they are well sorted.
 
Originally Posted By: dblshock
nothing wrong with my CVT..works good.


How many miles are on it?
 
Well I've got 165k miles on my CVT. Been just fine. I have very good power 0-60. I think that the major problems with some of the Nissan CVTs is people putting regular atf in them. Then some of the ones after 2012 are always looking for a higher gear ratio. Which I don't think is helpful at all.
 
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