China's an Economic Monster

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quote:

Originally posted by Last_Z:


EDIT: IF.....IF China could keep the current economic pace WITHOUT internal friction, then they will have been the most succesful country to adopt the Socialist/Communist system without implosion. The Soviet Union, as mighty as it was could no longer support itself.....much less its puppet countries (Hungary, Bulgary, Romania, Cuba among others) due to the fact they absolutely had no economy whatsoever. Their only export was war materiel and related items, so once there were no more wars, it had no where to go but down. China, on the other hand, has adapted beautifully by keeping rigid control and dominance on politics and the country overall, BUT establishing a somewhat capitalist economy....something the USSR and Cuba, among others never did. How long will it last? Will people want more than just a couple of bucks in their pockets....Freedom (were you referring to this J?) Elections? I don't know. Time will tell!


The Chinese will strive for wealth when most of
them are poor, but when a substantial number of
them achieve wealth, they'll not be content with
wealth because wealth does not buy contentment.
Avarice only creates more avarice. Money is like
a drink which causes more thirst.

One thing that Money can do is give people power
to persuade other people to do things for them.
This monetary power will conflict with political
power. The old guard leadership of China will
not be wise enough to deal with this peevish
new wealthy aristocrat. Entire industrial
empires will be demolished at the stroke of a
whimsical bureacrat's pen. Political system
will battle insatiable and unsatisfied economic
system. Political system will win temporarily
at great economic expense, but people once
affluent will not willingly go back to privation.
So, in the long run, like an aging parent, the
old Communists will lose control. More turmoil
will ensue, and all of that time economy will
implode.

If I were you, I'd stay the %$#@ away from China
for the next thirty years. There's going to be
a lot of human tragedy over there. The
guillotine only cares about one color, the color
red. None of us has a red exterior, but the
executioner knows how to extract the red life force
from all of us. When the second Chinese revolution
hits, foreigners will spill their blood along
with the Chinese colleagues.

cheers.gif


Jae
 
If China's economy is a "Sunrise" economy could the U.S. economy be a "Sunset" economy? Where are the economic strengths in the U.S.? Manufacturing can be done cheaper somewhere else, a lot of service jobs can be done cheaper somewhere else, computer jobs can be done cheaper somewhere else. About the only thing this country can build better is weapons. Where does everybody see this country's economic situation in 50-100 years? Are we all going to be serving lattes to Chinese and Indian businessmen?
 
quote:

Originally posted by labman:
By 2050, the most prosperous countries will be the ones whose goverment allows the people to make money with the least hassle.

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Gee, I'll have to figure out where that will be. Costa Rica? I'd be 90 so I might be dead by then anyway.
 
quote:

Originally posted by Last_Z:

The Soviet Union, as mighty as it was could no longer support itself.....much less its puppet countries (Hungary, Bulgary, Romania, Cuba among others) due to the fact they absolutely had no economy whatsoever. Their only export was war materiel and related items, so once there were no more wars, it had no where to go but down.[/QB]

Let me disagree. Yes, the economic situation in the second half of 80th was very tough: the Soviet Union was overloaded by a rush of armament and billion dollars "fraternal help" to the third countries, so in the beginning of 90th it came to the classic evolutionary situation: leaders could not govern as it was before. In fact, they could, but then they would have to revive a time of "gulags" (abbreviation for Central Board of Camps). Over this, in monarchic countries like Russia everything depends from the leader. And thanks god we had a weak-willed Gorbachev at this time, otherwise the history could be different.

As for China, they have managed to incorporate the socialist system of economic planning into a capitalist system. And everything this is under state control. Very effective. China's economic possibilities are growing in geometrical progression. According to UN and Russian studies its real GDP was:

1980 - 63 % of the US (UN source)
1987 - 97 % of the US (UN source)
2001 - 150 % of the US (Russia source)

Its industry is well protected by finace system and price fluctuations on world market cannot have a serious impact on internal market. In its turn its finace power (gold and currency reserves) is so strong that China may easily influence the world markets (remember 1997 Asian crisis) and bury US Dollar. Could be that in 7-10 years Yuan will become a reserve currency instead of Dollar. It may happen earlier if Russia adopts a law allowing foreigners to buy lands. This may become a real catalyst. So, I don't expect something good for us from China.
 
quote:

Originally posted by Pablo:

quote:

It may happen earlier if Russia adopts a law allowing foreigners to buy lands.

Please elaborate.


The joke from 90th: Returned from the US new Russians are sharing their impresssions in the cirle on friends: Would you imagine that they are using our Dollars ?

If seriously, China was always interested in so called nothern territories. Thus they call our Siberia and Far-East. It is not only a land, but a store-room of natural resources and this is 25 % of world ones: oil, gaz, coal, wood, water. (And why are we so poor ?). Actually Chineeses unofficially control about 30 % of business in Eastern Siberia and on Far-East. And its share is continuously growing together with Chineese population. According to certain estimates now they are from 0.5 till 2.0 million. It is not difficult to imagine that if Chineese banks purchase somehow, directly or via finance organisations of other countries, these lands, the presence of Chineese Diaspora will become fully legal. Then, one day, in case of a conflict, this territory will be fully controled by China. Question: How to buy everything ? Answer: To create finance chaos and make goods cheap. Means: Russian economy and goods are stronly binded to US Dollar. If Dollar system is collapsed, then everything will be nearly free of charge.
 
quote:

Originally posted by Shannow:

Power Generation.....we are stuck with very old power stations, the best of which are knocking on 40% efficient, and the majority of which are low 30s. We allow the burning of brown coal for power generation. With the depressed electricity market (currently operating on the California system), there is no incentive to build new efficient plant. The only plant being built is simple cycle GT peaking plant at 27% efficiency.

Then, a LOT of this inefficiently generated electricity is used to make aluminium, which is then exported.

An interesting take on aluminium was that the Government mounted a position that the recieving country should be credited with the emissions of their consumption of aluminium, steel and the like. The Europeans weren't too happy with that, so we get to keep the emissions, but they get to use the aluminium.
[/QB]

We have a hydro plant almost dedicated to producing power at a special cut price for the nearby Australian aluminium smelter,the end product shipped back to Australia - just saving you some greenhouse gases there mate.
 
Rank Country GDP
0 World $ 47,000,000,000,000
1 United States $ 10,082,000,000,000
2 China $ 6,000,000,000,000
3 Japan $ 3,550,000,000,000
4 India $ 2,660,000,000,000
5 Germany $ 2,184,000,000,000
6 France $ 1,540,000,000,000
7 United Kingdom $ 1,520,000,000,000
8 Italy $ 1,438,000,000,000
9 Brazil $ 1,340,000,000,000
10 Russia $ 1,270,000,000,000
11 Singapore $ 1,063,000,000,000
12 Korea, South $ 931,000,000,000
13 Canada $ 923,000,000,000
14 Mexico $ 920,000,000,000
15 Spain $ 828,000,000,000
16 Indonesia $ 687,000,000,000
17 Australia $ 528,000,000,000
18 Turkey $ 468,000,000,000
19 Iran $ 456,000,000,000
20 Netherlands $ 434,000,000,000
 
I think that it will be a larger version of the Japanese invasion on our jobs.

There is no "one way street" in global trade. No nation just inflates like a balloon without eventually bursting and equalizing pressure with the surrounding environment. We've been doing it since the end of WWII where the rest of the world was in material ruin.


That is, eventually we may be paying more ..working harder or whatever...but SO? What most of you are suggesting as alternatives require us to work harder and pay more for stuff (domestic production of the goods that we man offshore).

So what's the difference?

Worried about your quality of life? Oportunities? Well, you're currently living in the wealthiest nation ..with just about the highest standard of living (for so many anyway). If we don't "deserve" to have that anymore since we are not economically 'globally viable" ..are you saying that someone should magically produce this for us? Should we not "earn" our living and lifestyle like we insist that all the third world inhabitants do?

..or would you rather go to a more "socialist" approach to our trade policies? Pehaps we can conform to some modern socialist model like Sweden. Our poor will make 18k ..and our rich will make 20k ..we will balance our trade. No layoffs ..an edcuation system designed around our business future needs......where it won't matter what YOU want. Where desire and personal drive will get you nowhere if you don't have the right IQ??? How many of you 6 digit income people are willing to provide me with a medium 5 digit income just so I can be your neighbor????

Do you get my point??
 
quote:

Originally posted by Silk:
We have a hydro plant almost dedicated to producing power at a special cut price for the nearby Australian aluminium smelter,the end product shipped back to Australia - just saving you some greenhouse gases there mate.

Thanks for that.

In turn, our smelters are owned by overseas interests also.

There was supposed to be a new one built near here, but the generator I work for was "not mature enough" (in the words of our premier) to sell power for less than the cost of making it.

All of the old 20 year contracts were put in as job creation, and it's obscene the cut price they are paying.

BTW, my parents, and Aunty and Uncle are touring your fair lands at present.
 
quote:

Originally posted by ex_MGB:
Rank Country GDP
1 United States $ 10,082,000,000,000
2 China $ 6,000,000,000,000


There are different methods to calculate GDP. IMF and World Bank standard approaches cannot be applied to China. They estimated it as 50 % of US GDP in 1995 and 60 % now though according to CIA estimates made in the framework of UN studies it was 97 % already in 1987. Latest estimates made by Russian economists indicate for 150 % of US GDP.

Think Gary Allan is right saying about a larger version of the Japaneese invasion. China fully follows Japaneese way of development, but they made it in considerably larger scale.
 
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They may have to work on communication though. See engrish.com
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[ February 26, 2004, 10:13 PM: Message edited by: JohnnyO ]
 
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