How Often Do You Get a Flat Tire?

[CapriRacer]

Originally Posted By: dailydriver
Taking it a step further;
About how far can a totally flat (non-runflat, conventional type) tire be driven before the sidewall is broken down to the point of being unusable/dangerous??

(Let's say one had to drive on it to get off the road to a safe place/shoulder, and not be hit by a semi going 80 mph!

)


I have seen tires that were punctured (and it was known when that happened), and by the time the vehicle was able to be brought to a stop, the sidewall was damaged beyond usability. I can't say I have seen any situations were even a small amount of driving did NOT damage the tire enough to render the sidewall still usable.

In other words, what I know and am sure about is that driving on a completely flat tire ALWAYS damages the sidewall.

 

[CapriRacer]

Originally Posted By: Pokermatters
I'll bet the article Capri racer referenced had a typo and it was 1.5 percent of all tires end up with a flat of some type.....or on average every 140 months....which still amounts to the average person having 4.286 flats over a 50 year span. I'm 50 years old and I think I've had 2 or 3 flats due to puncture, but it's been a long, long time.


I no longer have access to the data, but my opinion BEFORE I read the study was that about 10% of the tires had repairs or punctures. That was based on my inspecting hundreds of returned tires, but not keeping a log of the inspections - just a gut feel. So while my opinion was that the study had higher numbers than that, it wasn't an order of magnitude difference.

Besides, it takes a whole lot of folks not getting flats to offset the guy who gets a flat every month. - AND - we have to remember that included in this statistic are tires that got punctures that never went flat.

But, Pokermatters, what would be interesting is to hear how you react to the above. I recent ran across a situation where a person was shown statistics that he didn't agree with and he totally dismissed the statistic as though it didn't exist (or was totally fabricated), even though it was from a reliable source).

So what do you think?

 

[Lapham3]

Politicans and others seem able to disregard 'good numbers' often. I agree that tires can survive about zero travel after the tire is flat.

 

[HangFire]

Roughly one every 2 years, that's between 1 heavily used vehicle, one normally used vehicle, and one hardly used vehicle.

Usually the same thing, nail or screw in tread, usually repairable.

 

[Pokermatters]

Capri, regarding the question you posed to me....and my reaction....there's nothing for me to "dismiss". I believe your experience to be credible....so whether it's 10 or 15 percent of tires, I certainly have no statistical evidence one way or another to challenge or dispute.....I merely was proposing a possibility when I suggested the there could be a typo of "1.5 percent" (though I probably used too certain of language when I said "I'd bet") vs. 15 percent.

My father's PHD in Organization Behavior was such that he taught statistics amongst the many courses he taught and I long ago took stats in college as well. As an aside, I own a 38 book blackjack library and was a one time card counting hobbyist, thoroughly enjoying years of in depth study of blackjack math and probability. I'm also a poker player and have much enjoyed the in depth study of probability and stats as it related to the games I play.

I'm a fairly recent poster here, but I've read a great number of your posts as a lurker here over the last year and a half or so.

 

[Pokermatters]

Capri, I'll say this though, based on the 15 percent of tires that are patched/plugged, 48K mile tire lifespan, 12K miles per year driven, an average of 42.86 flats per driver over a 50 year span does seem like an awfully large number of flats based on my own anecdotal observations....even at 10 percent of tires, the average driver with the stated criteria would average 28.57 flats as being the middle number on the bell curve. Maybe I'm just on the far left side of that same bell curve with my personal experience and observations.

I will repeat that I have absolutely no statistical information and am not trying to "dismiss" the information you've presented, it's just that my own "gut feel" tells me that 29 to 43 as being the median range for lifetime flat tires as the middle point of the bell curve seems like a high number.

 

[CapriRacer]

Originally Posted By: Pokermatters
Capri, I'll say this though, based on the 15 percent of tires that are patched/plugged, 48K mile tire lifespan, 12K miles per year driven, an average of 42.86 flats per driver over a 50 year span does seem like an awfully large number of flats based on my own anecdotal observations.......


Me, too! That's why I think the number is high. It just doesn't quite line up with my gut as to how big the number should be. Nevertheless, it is what it is and I have no doubt as to the validity of the statistic being derived from the data. I've just put in my head that this statistic may seem unreasonably high.

Oh and the reason I asked about how you reacted is I am trying to understand why people reject what appears to be good, reliable data. If I can get some insight into this phenomenon, perhaps I can be better at explaining how things work. I think you can see how I reacted to the data, and since this is how I usually react to data, I am obviously not the norm.

 

[Pokermatters]

Regarding "why people reject what appears to be good, reliable data.", I'm not one who generally falls in that camp, though without actually having seen that data, relying on another s somewhat vague recollection of data from the past puts that data into a something of a nebulous ballpark range.

The methodology of how that data was collected comes into question as well. Were scrap tire dealers/stockpilers (I'm admittedly not that familiar with the industry/terminology) told ahead of time to keep tabs on damaged tires for say, a 6 month period of time? Or were they asked the question well after the fact, having to rely on memory or a haphazard "guess" not wanting to expend time/cost in the accurate collection of that data.

The only "data" I could find remotely related to this topic was done by Bridgestone in a survey of 2,800 drivers age 18 and older with 74% having said they'd had at least one flat tire. I'm sure a great number of people who answer such a survey may have forgotten times they've had flat tires in some cases, or overstate how many flat tires they'd had due to "selective memory" they may have formed if they'd had "bunched" or "grouped" flat tires over a relatively short period of time.

 

[IndyIan]

On average maybe one flat per 50,000 miles? We went years without a flat and then have had 3 in the last 18 months.
All small nails or screws and all repairable.

 

[dailydriver]

Originally Posted By: CapriRacer
Originally Posted By: dailydriver
Taking it a step further;
About how far can a totally flat (non-runflat, conventional type) tire be driven before the sidewall is broken down to the point of being unusable/dangerous??

(Let's say one had to drive on it to get off the road to a safe place/shoulder, and not be hit by a semi going 80 mph!

)


I have seen tires that were punctured (and it was known when that happened), and by the time the vehicle was able to be brought to a stop, the sidewall was damaged beyond usability. I can't say I have seen any situations were even a small amount of driving did NOT damage the tire enough to render the sidewall still usable.

In other words, what I know and am sure about is that driving on a completely flat tire ALWAYS damages the sidewall.


THANK YOU!

The above kind of makes it IMPERATIVE that one looks at their tires every time one gets into their car, especially if it was parked anywhere but home.

 

[SubLGT]

Originally Posted By: dailydriver
……………..The above kind of makes it IMPERATIVE that one looks at their tires every time one gets into their car, especially if it was parked anywhere but home.

That's a good habit to get into. I'm sure that in a few short years the TPMS will be able to send an alert to a smart phone (or is that already being done?)

 

[teddyboy]

We have a low wall that runs next to our drive way; it is cantered in somewhat. The top edge is pointed toward the driveway. Somebody in the family usually backs into it every year or so. As a result, I always pay for the tire insurance at Discount Tire. I'm wondering when they're going to put me on some kind of list in which they don't offer me this coverage anymore.

 

[SHOZ]

Some tires are such a low profile that it's hard to tell they are flat until they are completely flat. This is about the only time the TPMS systems are worth their while. And then only if they list the individual tire pressures.

Both my cars have the TPMS systems but are too generic to be of much value. I only have sensors in the winter wheels for my Accent.

I had a 2013 Nissan Altima rental last winter that the TPMS showed which tire was low, and when I went to fill it up it flashed the lights three times as I filled, then the horn honked. I assume that meant it was at the right pressure. It was too cold and dark to get out the tire pressure gauge.

 

[CapriRacer]

Pokermatters,

Here's a news report about the survey:

Tire Review News Report on RMA Scrap Tire Survey

Short version:

Over 14,000 tires were examined in 7 different locales scattered around the US. 17% had repairs.

Some more details:

I was sort of involved in the survey as I was slated to be one of the teams that inspected those tires, but luckily I had another commitment. I say luckily because the group I was supposed to go with was doing a site in Arizona in the summer. A colleague of mine went instead and I did hear about how hot it was - repeatedly!

They examined ALL tires that came in for a period of time. So I think they got a good sampling. The only thing about the survey is that tires that weren't picked by by those trucks (such as tires disposed of in other ways or those sent back to the tire manufacturer for warranty purposes) were not included.

I still think 17% sounds too high, but I have to accept that that value.

 

[dailydriver]

Originally Posted By: teddyboy
We have a low wall that runs next to our drive way; it is cantered in somewhat. The top edge is pointed toward the driveway. Somebody in the family usually backs into it every year or so. As a result, I always pay for the tire insurance at Discount Tire. I'm wondering when they're going to put me on some kind of list in which they don't offer me this coverage anymore.


Yes, they must put all of those $15.00 road hazard warranty fees into some crazy, ultra-high yield investments to be able to do what they do.

 

[PandaBear]

Originally Posted By: WishIhadatruck
I had gone many years without a flat, then had 2 in a week on the same car last summer.


Same here, the time I got 2 nails back to back in a month after 10 years without a flat, because of a big construction site next block.

 

[dailydriver]

Originally Posted By: PandaBear
Originally Posted By: WishIhadatruck
I had gone many years without a flat, then had 2 in a week on the same car last summer.


Same here, the time I got 2 nails back to back in a month after 10 years without a flat, because of a big construction site next block.


I know everyone on here just DESPISES/LOATHES ANY form of regulation, BUT, some laws/requirements on the (careless/lazy??) cons/the companies they work for which makes them secure/cover their screw/nail/scrap containers more securely, with some HEAVY fines for violations, would go quite far in costing all of us less coin, AND danger, in the long run.

 

[Mr_Joe]

I hardly ever get a flat anymore. If I do it's usually a nail or debris puncture of some type.

Two years ago I was hunting on a farm in IL, when I got home I developed two flats on one side. There was a lot of junk scattered around the farm. Luckily I did get home, and the tires were due for replacement.

I was able to use a spare and a Winter tire to bide time while I ordered a set of new Michelins.

 

[SubLGT]

I remember two instances in which I checked the air pressure on my tires in the evening, and in the morning one of them was flat. I look for a nail or screw, find nothing, reinflate the tire, and all is well with the tire.

No further problems. I am guessing the valve in the stem got a little cockeyed and leaked air overnight. I have childhood memories of my neighbors always putting a dab of spit on the end of the valve stem, after adding air, to check for leaks.