Originally Posted By: eljefino
Originally Posted By: Clubber_Lang
The problem with SS is that your money is being paid out to an ever growing senior base. Increased lifespan is great, but it represents too many people drawing SS from working peoples federally taxed checks. This trend will continue and I gaurantee that you will never get out of SS what you paid into it if you are less than 50 years old.
Yes but that's because labor can't be saved over a generation. When today's 50-somethings need nursing care in 30 years today's babies will be taking jobs, paying SS, and that money will go across town and be spent that week. There will be tons of employment opportunities but it will be menial type work changing geezer diapers. Investing will be "weird" with old folks dumping real estate and stocks to pay for basic care in a nursing home somewhere.
The most plausible way to save labor is to make *very* durable goods like infrastructure-- bridges etc-- that we won't have the revenue base to maintain adequately in a generation and by getting the most, youngest people the most educated they can be so they can work that education for 50 years.
However we "fix" SS, one's neighbor will get the same benefit as themselves and compete for the same help. The way to come out ahead, as always, is to save more than the competition and remain on good terms with your kids, who might be keeping after you later.
The real fix is to slash SS now, to "correct" those on it coming out like bandits, and helping along the curve of their cashing out investments instead so the market has a softer landing.
Very interesting and insightful - and definitely a potential scenario. I think it is possible that the US end up in a sad weird future governed largely by the crushing demographic of the giant WW2 baby-boom retirement and die-off.
However I think the US might escape that scenario because the US population, productivity, and GDP will in combination keep growing at a healthy rate. Strong net new immigration into the US is a key factor here. The up side of growth and population increase is that there will be funds and young workers to pay for the giant babyboom die off. The downside is the US will continue to get more and more overcrowded and polluted over time.
Demographics and immigration policy can govern a country's future. Folks in Japan may soon be facing serious crisis if they are not already in one. Japan's super conservative national budgets, very slow GDP growth in combination with negative birthrate, and very restrictive immigration policies have pretty much set up Japan for a very unpleasant future (way too many old people, way too few younger families and workers to fuel economic growth). The good side is that Japan will be a lot less crowded over time : )
Originally Posted By: Clubber_Lang
The problem with SS is that your money is being paid out to an ever growing senior base. Increased lifespan is great, but it represents too many people drawing SS from working peoples federally taxed checks. This trend will continue and I gaurantee that you will never get out of SS what you paid into it if you are less than 50 years old.
Yes but that's because labor can't be saved over a generation. When today's 50-somethings need nursing care in 30 years today's babies will be taking jobs, paying SS, and that money will go across town and be spent that week. There will be tons of employment opportunities but it will be menial type work changing geezer diapers. Investing will be "weird" with old folks dumping real estate and stocks to pay for basic care in a nursing home somewhere.
The most plausible way to save labor is to make *very* durable goods like infrastructure-- bridges etc-- that we won't have the revenue base to maintain adequately in a generation and by getting the most, youngest people the most educated they can be so they can work that education for 50 years.
However we "fix" SS, one's neighbor will get the same benefit as themselves and compete for the same help. The way to come out ahead, as always, is to save more than the competition and remain on good terms with your kids, who might be keeping after you later.
The real fix is to slash SS now, to "correct" those on it coming out like bandits, and helping along the curve of their cashing out investments instead so the market has a softer landing.
Very interesting and insightful - and definitely a potential scenario. I think it is possible that the US end up in a sad weird future governed largely by the crushing demographic of the giant WW2 baby-boom retirement and die-off.
However I think the US might escape that scenario because the US population, productivity, and GDP will in combination keep growing at a healthy rate. Strong net new immigration into the US is a key factor here. The up side of growth and population increase is that there will be funds and young workers to pay for the giant babyboom die off. The downside is the US will continue to get more and more overcrowded and polluted over time.
Demographics and immigration policy can govern a country's future. Folks in Japan may soon be facing serious crisis if they are not already in one. Japan's super conservative national budgets, very slow GDP growth in combination with negative birthrate, and very restrictive immigration policies have pretty much set up Japan for a very unpleasant future (way too many old people, way too few younger families and workers to fuel economic growth). The good side is that Japan will be a lot less crowded over time : )
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