Rising gasoline prices as refineries shut down

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From the LA Times:

No relief in rising gasoline prices as refineries shut down

By Ronald D. White
January 30, 2012, 7:50 a.m.
American motorists may well be wondering when, if ever, they will again see a sustained and significant drop in retail gasoline prices. Not in the forseeable future, it seems.

In California, the average price for a gallon of regular gasoline has risen another 3.3 cents in the last week, to $3.747, according to the AAA Fuel Gauge Report. That's 39.1 cents a gallon higher than the old record for Jan. 30, set just last year.

Nationally, the average is $3.429, up another 4.3 cents over the past week. That's also 33 cents a gallon higher than last year's record for the date.

Meanwhile, fuel supply sources continue to shrink, particularly in the eastern U.S., negating at least some of the effect of continuing low demand for gasoline in the U.S. In its most recent weekly petroleum report, for example, the Energy Department noted another refinery that was set to close.

"On January 18, Hess announced the closure of its HOVENSA joint venture refinery in the U.S. Virgin Islands, a major source of product supply to the East Coast," the Energy Department said. "That planned closure follows on the heels of the idling of two refineries in the Delaware Valley by Sunoco and ConocoPhillips and announced plans by Sunoco to idle another refinery in the region by mid-2012."

The Energy Department added, "The complete idling of the three refineries would collectively cut as much as 50% of current East Coast refining capacity."
 
That is amazing to me. I would love to see a graph of gasoline consumption in the US over the last 10 years.

Consumption of gasoline is a very telling indicator of the economic conditions in the US.

Anybody have a link to a graph or chart?
 
And then there's this to maybe also rise prices even higher:

Refiners, unions prepare for strike as contract deadline looms

By L.M. Sixel and Simone Sebastian
Updated 08:44 p.m., Monday, January 30, 2012


HOUSTON — Union officials are drawing up strike rosters while refineries prepare for possible shutdowns as a deadline looms on nationwide contract talks covering 30,000 refinery and chemical workers.
Negotiators with United Steelworkers International and Shell Oil Co. were meeting Monday to hammer out a contract to replace one that expires at 12:01 a.m. Wednesday.
One analyst warned Monday that a strike that closes refineries could boost gasoline prices.
Prices have been climbing in recent weeks. Regular gasoline averaged $3.43 a gallon nationwide on Monday, about 15 cents higher than a month ago, AAA reported. The average price in San Antonio has climbed from $3.06 to $3.29 in the last month.
Shell is negotiating on behalf of the industry for a deal that would serve as the standard for wages, benefits and working conditions for union-represented employees nationwide.
Each side is getting ready in case of a walkout. USW Local 13-1 in Pasadena set up a phone “strike line,” and its website has password-protected picket assignments for Shell and BP workers covered by the local.
Oil refining companies also are getting ready.
BP said its Texas City refinery and unionized facilities in Indiana, Ohio and California will close temporarily in the event of a strike.
Texas City refinery spokesman Michael Marr said it has 1,400 union workers.
“BP has an agreement with the USW where — in the event of a work stoppage — USW workers would safely shut down units at BP sites and the refinery would remain in that state until the work stoppage has ceased,” Marr said by email.
He said the company remains optimistic the two sides will reach an agreement.
LyondellBasell spokesman David Harpole said, “We have trained management personnel who are certified to take over safe operation of the refinery” in the event of a strike.
About 500 union and 500 nonunion workers operate the plant, Harpole said.
Brian Youngberg, senior energy analyst for Edward Jones, said using management employees and nonunion professionals to fill in for striking workers is a short-term fix, and that a strike eventually could shut down 10 percent of the nation's capacity for producing refined fuels.
“If the strike prolongs, you will see supply really being curtailed, enough to really move prices,” he said.
The talks, which began Jan. 17, cover 168 production, refining, marketing, transportation, pipeline and petrochemical facilities where workers are represented by the USW, said Lynne Hancock, spokeswoman for the international union in Nashville, Tenn.
That includes 69 refineries representing 64 percent of U.S. refining capacity.
The average wage is $33.85 an hour, Hancock said.
In the 2009 negotiation, workers received a 3 percent raise for each year of the three-year contract and a $2,500 contract ratification bonus.


Read more: http://www.mysanantonio.com/business/art...p#ixzz1l0AyIxh9
 
Originally Posted By: rk1407
That is amazing to me. I would love to see a graph of gasoline consumption in the US over the last 10 years.

Consumption of gasoline is a very telling indicator of the economic conditions in the US.

Anybody have a link to a graph or chart?


US gasoline consumption per capita has been falling since the secular bear market started, that is since 2000:

gasoline-sales.html


http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Gasoline-Sales.php
 
That explains the recent price jumps. I was wondering why. Glad both our cars are averaging 30+ mpg at the moment.
 
What else do you expect? Fuel economy regulations, not necessarily a bad thing IMO, mean less demand overall, which means less profit.

Companies would rather sell far less material for far higher profits by controlling supply, then selling more with lower profit I guess... Especially since growth is not in the cards outside China, it seems.
 
I paid $3.84/Gallon today @ a Chevron.
Then probably less then 5 minutes back on the road, they was talking on a radio show about expecting $5/Gallon this year.
Guess I'll stick to my daily work vehicle - RAV
Maybe use the motorcycle more come warmer weather.
 
test
Originally Posted By: friendly_jacek
Originally Posted By: rk1407
That is amazing to me. I would love to see a graph of gasoline consumption in the US over the last 10 years.

Consumption of gasoline is a very telling indicator of the economic conditions in the US.

Anybody have a link to a graph or chart?


US gasoline consumption per capita has been falling since the secular bear market started, that is since 2000:

gasoline-sales.html


http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Gasoline-Sales.php



Thank you very much. I have been looking for this data for a long time. I wouldn't have guessed the decline started way back in 2000.

What do you mean by secular bear market.

Thanks again for the info.
 
Originally Posted By: strongt
One analyst warned Monday that a strike that closes refineries could boost gasoline prices.


The oil and gas industry will use ANY excuse and ANY reason, no matter how silly, lame-brained and no matter whether it is a "valid" excuse/reason or not to raise the price of oil and gas.

If a camel farts in the desert or a trader on Wall Street calls in sick to work, or if the oil industry "thinks" some world event may or may not happen, they jack the prices up. It is the strangest thing I have ever seen, how events that have not yet happened yet, may or may not happen at all can have such a profound impact on an industry and the price we pay for a product. And once the price goes up, the gas and oil industry does everything in its power to keep the price up as long as possible. It also strikes me as strange how they can manipulate the industry so that even when we buy less gas, they produce less gas but yet they make the same or even more money off of it. I sure wish I could make more money for doing less work at my own job.

I wonder what the real role of speculators and traders really is in this latest gas price gouging episode? I am sure everyone involved will turn a nice profit from it.
 
The government agencies should consider raising the margin requirements for oil speculators. The margins for gold and silver traders were raised at least 4 times last year. Each time the margins were raised the price of gold and silver was driven down.

Why wouldn't they do this for oil? Better yet, make anyone who buys oil futures take delivery of the oil.

Oh, I forgot Washington DC is OWNED.
 
If the gas goes way up, the economy will "shut down" again as people will spend much less & stay home more. One & out.
 
Well, I'm in San Antonio and saw 3 places at 3.39 this AM....

We are all going to get the sausage very shortly... But then again, we have been for quite some time and may "ease" the dry-slide.

So they want more $ and more bonuses. Seems like the workers are putting themselves in the car maker bracket... Let em strike.... Won't last long.
 
Last edited:
Originally Posted By: rk1407

Thank you very much. I have been looking for this data for a long time. I wouldn't have guessed the decline started way back in 2000.

What do you mean by secular bear market.


It means things were very peachy in 2000 and we are sliding down since. Forget the nominal market figures, pay attention to real value. The Dow Jones Index to Gold ratio is an eye opening indicator:

dow_gold.gif
 
Dow to gold??!?

While I dont deny values have dropped for a number of reasons, given the run up that gold and silver had, their ratios are hardly good indicators, they just make good news because they will be steep given a drop and massive run up in gold.
 
Originally Posted By: JHZR2
Dow to gold??!?

While I dont deny values have dropped for a number of reasons, given the run up that gold and silver had, their ratios are hardly good indicators, they just make good news because they will be steep given a drop and massive run up in gold.


Whatever, you seem to know it all. Yes, gold and silver just happen to go up for no good reason. Nothing to see here, move along.
 
Originally Posted By: friendly_jacek
Originally Posted By: JHZR2
Dow to gold??!?

While I dont deny values have dropped for a number of reasons, given the run up that gold and silver had, their ratios are hardly good indicators, they just make good news because they will be steep given a drop and massive run up in gold.


Whatever, you seem to know it all. Yes, gold and silver just happen to go up for no good reason. Nothing to see here, move along.


Whatever. If I seem to know everything, then are you inplying the same? What, disliking peer review on analysis? If you you have the answer then why can it be questioned?

My point is that something g that itself has been speculated upon and has gone up, perhaps irrationally, may not be the best indicator to normalize to.

Do you deny that there has been a ton of speculative buying in gold? Late 90's, central banks were dumping it by the ton, and people were fearful of how low it could go.

So two different things have bounced both ends of the spectrum since the mid 1990s.

Sound indicator?

It's a worthy discussion, whether you like it or not.
 
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