Investors....come in please!

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My portfolio is off the charts....not kidding. My MLP's just went nuts with all the buyout stuff - I actually gained yesterday.

I sold JO and TIF on Friday for a healthy gain. F, LINE, SDRL, QRE, EPD, ETP doing fine....time to sell maybe......
 
I have some Chevron (CVX) I bought in late August that I'm up 7% on right now (inclusive of both buy & sell trading fees). I'm thinking of dumping it. I've got some Shell (RDS.A) and Exxon-Mobil (XOM) also, but I'm to the good 3-4% on those. My last energy stock is Hess, and it did fairly well when I first bought it, but has floundered around lately and I'm nearly even on it.

90% of my portfolio is in S&P500 index funds or large cap funds, but I keep 10% to speculate on individual equities.
 
I have just a few managed growth/value funds and honestly they are not that great. I dumped broad market funds awhile ago and my portfolio has been way happier since. The whole mimic the market thing nowadays is just nuts IMHO. I just don't see beating the market when you are tied to it.
 
Personally, my goal isn't to "beat the market". If I can make market over 50 years, I'll have more money than I know what to do with. If I'm out there to "beat the market", the market will beat me at least 50% of the time. I don't believe I can out-game Wall Street.

But to be sure, index investing is just one strategy. Do what works for you.
 
Whatever works for you. I've got no problem with that.

I've just learned over the years there are some not so difficult learning steps that do help. When the experts tell you that "you can't time the market", I have found that to be a half truth - or rather a reason for some folks to just grab some funds and wait, then later say - "....wow after XX years, I only have this much....." I'll be the first to say I will never pick the exact top or bottom. Never have, never will. I always tell people to get IBD and follow the rules. Subscribe to a couple letters. Read and watch. Learn. It's not about out gaming anyone, I just think it's a faster step to being independently wealthy - and yes I know that's not "in" anymore, it's not PC - or as Gary would have said, not achievable!
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Originally Posted By: PandaBear
Move all of my and my wife's 401k out of stock funds and into money market and cash equivalent (Fidelity stable whatever since they don't have money market).


I am rather naive about this stuff and have my retirement funds with a well diversified TIAA-CREFF plan. I review and make minor changes at least twice a year.

Tell me if I am wrong about Panda Bear's move. I was under the assumption that if you have many years to go before retirement, it is better to let your stock portion sit in the stocks (assuming not ALL your investment is there) during these times. In simple terms, during these times you will accumulate more stock shares during the lows, then when it goes back up, you will have higher gains.

Correct, more or less? Of course there are lots of variables and my scenario is for when some of your funds are also in safer areas (diversified). Comments?
 
doitmyself,

There are as many different opinions on the best way to invest as there are investors out there. There are those who share the opinion that the younger you are, the more risk you can generally tolerate because the longer you're going to be in the market. Conversely, there are those who believe that you don't HAVE to take risks, because you'll be in the market a long time.

Most investing advice suggests that you start out in your 20s or 30s with most of your portfolio in stocks, and as you near your target retirement age, you reduce the percentage of stocks in your portfolio.

In my opinion, the best advice anyone can give a new investor is to make a plan. Have a target retirement age. Have a general idea of how much wealth you want to achieve. And have a plan to get there. Once you have an idea of where you want to be and when you want to be there, you can develop a plan to achieve your goals.
 
Originally Posted By: doitmyself
Originally Posted By: PandaBear
Move all of my and my wife's 401k out of stock funds and into money market and cash equivalent (Fidelity stable whatever since they don't have money market).


I am rather naive about this stuff and have my retirement funds with a well diversified TIAA-CREFF plan. I review and make minor changes at least twice a year.

Tell me if I am wrong about Panda Bear's move. I was under the assumption that if you have many years to go before retirement, it is better to let your stock portion sit in the stocks (assuming not ALL your investment is there) during these times. In simple terms, during these times you will accumulate more stock shares during the lows, then when it goes back up, you will have higher gains.

Correct, more or less? Of course there are lots of variables and my scenario is for when some of your funds are also in safer areas (diversified). Comments?


Right? Wrong? Depends uponwhere you are at in time and closeness to retirement. Its all about risk aversion. Models have shown over and over again that if you are NOT in the market the top "n" days, your return will be substantially lower than if in over a complete amount of time. The value of n is not big. Missing the top few days can change returns by many percent.

That said, if you are confident on a bear market with downside, putting money into cash should help retain value. The key is to get back in early.

As Pablo indicated, index tracking wont do the most for you. IMO there is more flexibility for NOT getting in at the bottom or missing the market's top n days in individual equities.

The thing I'd be most interested in is dollar cost averaging, i.e. buying the equities even when in a cash position when the market is dropping to support dollar cost averaging.

Its all about how to maximuzer benefits while minimizing risk. If the true optimal approach was known and established, things wouldnt be the same.
 
Originally Posted By: Pablo
always tell people to get IBD and follow the rules.


I did! Dumped all the crummy mutual funds and am using Oneil's simple strategies of finding general trends of when to buy and when to sell. If you just learn the basics, it's pretty easy. Using trade for free Schwab ETFs now.

The days of sitting it out in an index fund or finding a mutual fund worth half a [censored] are over. Heck, 90% of managed funds can't even beat the S&P 500. Some of the best funds over the recent years like FAIRX or CGMFX have turned to dog meat by managers trying to beat the market.
 
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Originally Posted By: Drew99GT
The days of sitting it out in an index fund or finding a mutual fund worth half a [censored] are over. Heck, 90% of managed funds can't even beat the S&P 500. Some of the best funds over the recent years like FAIRX or CGMFX have turned to dog meat by managers trying to beat the market.


Index funds aren't actively managed. I generally agree with you on human-managed mutual funds; I usually stay out of those.
 
Took a nice profit on EXM & MSFT a few days ago!

Now waiting for AA, HRB & ESI to go higher for the sell.
 
Originally Posted By: doitmyself
Originally Posted By: PandaBear
Move all of my and my wife's 401k out of stock funds and into money market and cash equivalent (Fidelity stable whatever since they don't have money market).


I am rather naive about this stuff and have my retirement funds with a well diversified TIAA-CREFF plan. I review and make minor changes at least twice a year.

Tell me if I am wrong about Panda Bear's move. I was under the assumption that if you have many years to go before retirement, it is better to let your stock portion sit in the stocks (assuming not ALL your investment is there) during these times. In simple terms, during these times you will accumulate more stock shares during the lows, then when it goes back up, you will have higher gains.

Correct, more or less? Of course there are lots of variables and my scenario is for when some of your funds are also in safer areas (diversified). Comments?


A man's gotta do what a man's gotta do. If Panda thought the market was going to crash, then he's out and relatively safer. OTOH, have you checked what money market, etc accounts earn? I don't call 0.05% return on my hard earned money safe at all. That said, look at my earlier posts. At any given moment with the market not in an uptrend, I have upwards of 80% money in cash - and frankly my gut churns more in those cases, than when I'm 80% in some form of investment when the market is rallying. Right now I'm somewhere in between, point being I am beating interest paying accounts and the market.

No you can't always beat the market, but you can follow ride the herd with market leaders and know to get out when your picked leaders are off 7-8%. This is the best, easiest and toughest of all investment rules. But you just must know the statistics are with you. If any stock is down 8% from your purchase price, sell it. Don't ride it, don't double down, don't wait. Sell it and learn what was wrong with your choice. A related rule, buy more on the way up. Ah such a tough thing to do.............
 
I try to buy equities with high dividend yield, which so long as the company is sound and dividend stays solid, yields DCA when the price is down. I dont exactly follow the 8% rule but it depends upon the situation.
 
Originally Posted By: JHZR2
I try to buy equities with high dividend yield, which so long as the company is sound and dividend stays solid, yields DCA when the price is down. I dont exactly follow the 8% rule but it depends upon the situation.


I hear you. It's tough with the PF picks, but I've been burned with them enough to truly buy the dips (which is pushing the rules actually). Most, but not all, are pretty good companies and the huge chunks of change "randomly" fired in in the owner's direction are nothing to shake a stick at. I mean I have a mess of them up 10%, 15%, 20%+ and they are still giving me money? What's up with that?
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Originally Posted By: Pablo
Originally Posted By: tpitcher
I own PDLI that has a 10.4% Dividend.
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Yeah watch that pig tank like a dog when they cut the dividend.
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OK!
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