Investors....come in please!
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After searching all afternoon and evening, I couldn't find anything to justify this selloff. If I missed something it wasn't obvious. So I bought another 1k@2. Either I smart, or I'm going to smart.
Originally Posted By: Oldmoparguy1
After searching all afternoon and evening, I couldn't find anything to justify this selloff. If I missed something it wasn't obvious. So I bought another 1k@2. Either I smart, or I'm going to smart.
I think you answered your own question. JPM is calling.
After searching all afternoon and evening, I couldn't find anything to justify this selloff. If I missed something it wasn't obvious. So I bought another 1k@2. Either I smart, or I'm going to smart.
I think you answered your own question. JPM is calling.
We'll see.. (crossed fingers)
Play on the agriculture boom with JJG or DBA if you don't like individual stocks.
Originally Posted By: GROUCHO MARX
Play on the agriculture boom with JJG or DBA if you don't like individual stocks.
Thanks. 40%+ since Nov...scary. I'm just afraid to jump in.
Play on the agriculture boom with JJG or DBA if you don't like individual stocks.
Thanks. 40%+ since Nov...scary. I'm just afraid to jump in.
Well now. Thats not good. TMA - Looks like I may have over reached..
Value of TMA left the building. Down $700 and counting.
Originally Posted By: Pablo
Value of TMA left the building. Down $700 and counting.
Yup. At this point, the difference between dumping and 0 is small. I might as well ride it out. If I'm lucky, I might get even or nearly so. If not, there goes my mad money. All my income holdings will keep pumping out monthly divs. Kind of hard on the ego though, this is the first time I've been in the red this year.
Value of TMA left the building. Down $700 and counting.
Yup. At this point, the difference between dumping and 0 is small. I might as well ride it out. If I'm lucky, I might get even or nearly so. If not, there goes my mad money. All my income holdings will keep pumping out monthly divs. Kind of hard on the ego though, this is the first time I've been in the red this year.
The weekly pattern as suggested would happen is playing out.
Originally Posted By: cmhj
Here’s a portion of went out to the trading members & partners last night. >>>>>>>
Even though picking points for S/T traders has been very good the opinion is still held the period of Mar 7- 12 might give us a low that’s close enough when taking in the big picture for casual traders to get back into the general market but not at your full allocation status.
Unless we get a full buy alert, which will be sent when we read it, scaling in at selected points appears to be OK when looking at the big picture.
Those that have excessive trading restrictions it’s likely you’ll only get 2 shots at this. If the market does in the big picture what is expected, the proof point will be obvious & we’ll flash it to you.
It’s felt the bouncing yo-yo we’ve been in for about 5 weeks, which was suggested would happen shortly after the Jan. low could continue into early April. If this is the case and we have a lot of data to support this scenario the market will in a sense prove itself to us both thru the cycle projections and technically.
While the option that we’ll stay in somewhat of a trading range thru mid year still exists, data collected later this week & into early April might take that option off the table or make it very remote.
Were we to get a final bottoming signal in the next week or so, the opinion is held that the late March cycle point along with a pattern likely to work going into April will provide us with that test of a possible bottoming signal, were it to occur in the next week or so.
The whole key might rotate around a possible S/T pattern like the following.
Were we to base out early in the week, get a pop into mid week and come back down into Fri. maybe even early next week, this is likely going to be where casual traders will want to ease back in or insert a portion of their assets without the final alert signal.
Note, I said a portion of your assets or not fully invested.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Ok I think most get the general idea.
Originally Posted By: cmhj
Here’s a portion of went out to the trading members & partners last night. >>>>>>>
Even though picking points for S/T traders has been very good the opinion is still held the period of Mar 7- 12 might give us a low that’s close enough when taking in the big picture for casual traders to get back into the general market but not at your full allocation status.
Unless we get a full buy alert, which will be sent when we read it, scaling in at selected points appears to be OK when looking at the big picture.
Those that have excessive trading restrictions it’s likely you’ll only get 2 shots at this. If the market does in the big picture what is expected, the proof point will be obvious & we’ll flash it to you.
It’s felt the bouncing yo-yo we’ve been in for about 5 weeks, which was suggested would happen shortly after the Jan. low could continue into early April. If this is the case and we have a lot of data to support this scenario the market will in a sense prove itself to us both thru the cycle projections and technically.
While the option that we’ll stay in somewhat of a trading range thru mid year still exists, data collected later this week & into early April might take that option off the table or make it very remote.
Were we to get a final bottoming signal in the next week or so, the opinion is held that the late March cycle point along with a pattern likely to work going into April will provide us with that test of a possible bottoming signal, were it to occur in the next week or so.
The whole key might rotate around a possible S/T pattern like the following.
Were we to base out early in the week, get a pop into mid week and come back down into Fri. maybe even early next week, this is likely going to be where casual traders will want to ease back in or insert a portion of their assets without the final alert signal.
Note, I said a portion of your assets or not fully invested.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Ok I think most get the general idea.
cmhj - thanks for that. It's well needed.
P-
P-
At the close I cashed out all my bear funds and went 10% long.
Still short in my day accounts. Looking for a spike down in the morning, if that happens I'll probably cover those too.
Then we'll see what things look like after I run the weekend rack.
Still short in my day accounts. Looking for a spike down in the morning, if that happens I'll probably cover those too.
Then we'll see what things look like after I run the weekend rack.
Quote:
PF Nibbler Thornburg Mortgage (NYSE: TMA) announced last night that it had another margin call from its trading account, this time from JP Morgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM). The call was for approximately $28 million on a line $320 million.
The margin call is based on a series of short-term financing arrangements for its mortgage bonds--not its core capital, nor its loan operation, not its loan trust securities.
The use of the term “margin call” in this context is different from its use in a stock-trading account. Thornburg doesn’t buy its mortgages on margin, but rather through the use of reverse repurchase agreements.
Reverse repos are contracts with banks and other financials through which Thornburg sells bonds and then agrees to repurchase at a set time at a set price. The difference in price reflects implied interest paid by Thornburg.
This is a common form of finance that nearly every financial and major bank uses; vehicles include US government bonds, corporate paper and mortgages.
The latest call comes as the mortgage bonds (separate from its core assets) have been falling in price, not because of defaults or nonperformance, but simply because of market forces. Mortgage rates have been climbing over the past several weeks and are likely to continue to do so. This--on top of other factors including prepayment speeds and credit qualities--can impact mortgage bond values negatively.
Earlier this week, Thornburg established another traditional loan based on core assets to replace another reverse repo line. The amount was well in excess of that line, as Thornburg was planning to replace other repo lines, including JP Morgan’s. We detailed this transaction in a March 3 Market Update.
The so-called after-hours market, where the big guys get to trade, sent Thornburg shares down even further last night, to below 2. In this morning’s trading, the shares are now around 1.30.
Yes, this is terrible. The market’s reaction to the news--whether real or hyped--has been to send the shares to near extinction. And now some folks are speculating about Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings.
News bites don’t mention that Thornburg still has a book value of more than $8 per common share. And they don’t mention that these refinancings are getting done with little drama. Nor do they mention the core assets of the company, which continue to perform extremely well, with near-microscopic default rates.
We could have and should have sold Thornburg back in August. And we could have and should have sold it earlier in 2007 when the bottom end of the overall mortgage market began to show signs of weakness.
But we looked at the company and the market, much like Thornburg’s management did. The company had great credit, great assets, and not a hint of trouble with its mortgages. Management also saw a great opportunity to pick off their lesser peers and to gain further ground in a depressed market.
Unfortunately, the market hasn’t taken the time to study Thornburg’s assets and liabilities. Nor has it looked at revenues and the company’s market operations.
Instead, rumor and innuendo rules, as it continues to do against more and more companies’ stocks in this and many other market sectors.
It could go to bankruptcy, if only because creditors will want to take advantage of the protection to capitalize on Thornburg’s heavy assets. Or Thornburg may continue to operate on a smaller scale, running its successful core mortgage origination and servicing business.
With the common stock sitting at a buck and change, why should we sell? If it’s all gone, it’s gone. We’ve lost much more than that last dollar. By continuing to own Thornburg, we can still participate in the company’s assets if there’s a workout.
This is a real loss, and we know that many of you have lost significant dollars. We downgraded Thornburg from a Cash Cow to a speculative Nibbler last summer, and it remains on watch. If there’s a turn, we’d be enthusiastic about buying it--especially at a buck a share. Hold Thornburg Mortgage.
Note that management, including Garrett Thornburg and Larry Goldstone, has millions of shares personally invested in the company. So we’re not alone.
We’ll have further updates as warranted.
PF Nibbler Thornburg Mortgage (NYSE: TMA) announced last night that it had another margin call from its trading account, this time from JP Morgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM). The call was for approximately $28 million on a line $320 million.
The margin call is based on a series of short-term financing arrangements for its mortgage bonds--not its core capital, nor its loan operation, not its loan trust securities.
The use of the term “margin call” in this context is different from its use in a stock-trading account. Thornburg doesn’t buy its mortgages on margin, but rather through the use of reverse repurchase agreements.
Reverse repos are contracts with banks and other financials through which Thornburg sells bonds and then agrees to repurchase at a set time at a set price. The difference in price reflects implied interest paid by Thornburg.
This is a common form of finance that nearly every financial and major bank uses; vehicles include US government bonds, corporate paper and mortgages.
The latest call comes as the mortgage bonds (separate from its core assets) have been falling in price, not because of defaults or nonperformance, but simply because of market forces. Mortgage rates have been climbing over the past several weeks and are likely to continue to do so. This--on top of other factors including prepayment speeds and credit qualities--can impact mortgage bond values negatively.
Earlier this week, Thornburg established another traditional loan based on core assets to replace another reverse repo line. The amount was well in excess of that line, as Thornburg was planning to replace other repo lines, including JP Morgan’s. We detailed this transaction in a March 3 Market Update.
The so-called after-hours market, where the big guys get to trade, sent Thornburg shares down even further last night, to below 2. In this morning’s trading, the shares are now around 1.30.
Yes, this is terrible. The market’s reaction to the news--whether real or hyped--has been to send the shares to near extinction. And now some folks are speculating about Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings.
News bites don’t mention that Thornburg still has a book value of more than $8 per common share. And they don’t mention that these refinancings are getting done with little drama. Nor do they mention the core assets of the company, which continue to perform extremely well, with near-microscopic default rates.
We could have and should have sold Thornburg back in August. And we could have and should have sold it earlier in 2007 when the bottom end of the overall mortgage market began to show signs of weakness.
But we looked at the company and the market, much like Thornburg’s management did. The company had great credit, great assets, and not a hint of trouble with its mortgages. Management also saw a great opportunity to pick off their lesser peers and to gain further ground in a depressed market.
Unfortunately, the market hasn’t taken the time to study Thornburg’s assets and liabilities. Nor has it looked at revenues and the company’s market operations.
Instead, rumor and innuendo rules, as it continues to do against more and more companies’ stocks in this and many other market sectors.
It could go to bankruptcy, if only because creditors will want to take advantage of the protection to capitalize on Thornburg’s heavy assets. Or Thornburg may continue to operate on a smaller scale, running its successful core mortgage origination and servicing business.
With the common stock sitting at a buck and change, why should we sell? If it’s all gone, it’s gone. We’ve lost much more than that last dollar. By continuing to own Thornburg, we can still participate in the company’s assets if there’s a workout.
This is a real loss, and we know that many of you have lost significant dollars. We downgraded Thornburg from a Cash Cow to a speculative Nibbler last summer, and it remains on watch. If there’s a turn, we’d be enthusiastic about buying it--especially at a buck a share. Hold Thornburg Mortgage.
Note that management, including Garrett Thornburg and Larry Goldstone, has millions of shares personally invested in the company. So we’re not alone.
We’ll have further updates as warranted.
GE closed below its 52 week low. There goes support.
looks like we might get the spike down cmhj predicted.....all futures are in the red. Got the limit order sales on my few remaining shorts.
CMHJ, what are your thoughts on how long the commodity bull will run? I'm getting scared because not even my Nasdaq stocks rewarded me like this during the late 90s. I'm making good money but omething feels very very wrong.
CMHJ, what are your thoughts on how long the commodity bull will run? I'm getting scared because not even my Nasdaq stocks rewarded me like this during the late 90s. I'm making good money but omething feels very very wrong.
The following was just sent to members & partners. >>>>>>>>>>
The overnight rack suggests we are still on track to put in a low of some magnitude within the March 7-12 window, with an outside chance of later next week, which fits with the second cycle point.
This AMs jobs report will be the final "fundy" event to factor in this weekend.
IMO, if we're to get a low of some substance within the next few days, which is still favored, we should still wait for the confirmation wave going into early April before getting heavily involved.
If the projected patterns play even close to expectations the overall rally coming out of the first expected low will be highly retraced thus in the big picture casual traders will not miss out on any significant gains.
We've avoided months of pain, let's not mess up now.
1288 spoos is an important level to maintain for the very S/T.
Everyone have a safe weekend. We'll be in touch by Mon AM.
The Lone Wolf
The overnight rack suggests we are still on track to put in a low of some magnitude within the March 7-12 window, with an outside chance of later next week, which fits with the second cycle point.
This AMs jobs report will be the final "fundy" event to factor in this weekend.
IMO, if we're to get a low of some substance within the next few days, which is still favored, we should still wait for the confirmation wave going into early April before getting heavily involved.
If the projected patterns play even close to expectations the overall rally coming out of the first expected low will be highly retraced thus in the big picture casual traders will not miss out on any significant gains.
We've avoided months of pain, let's not mess up now.
1288 spoos is an important level to maintain for the very S/T.
Everyone have a safe weekend. We'll be in touch by Mon AM.
The Lone Wolf
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