Your favorite daily stock-market analysis source ?

[youdontwannaknow]

There are tons out there with everyone pretending they are the experts. Looking to get some recommendations from people who have been in this long enough to tell which ones are better at than most. I am looking for something that tells me why the sotck markets did what they did today or yesterday, and which areas (sectors, industries, etc..) did best/worst.
Thanks.

 

[surfstar]

Nobody knows nuthin.

If they did, why would they tell you? They would use their secret knowledge to become wealthy and wouldn't have to sell "newsletters". Think about it.

People will postulate all kinds of reasons for why the market did this or that, but again, if they actually knew why, wouldn't they act in advance and be filthy rich?

This is your best bet to obtain wealth:
Everything you need to know about financial planning*

Make a will.
Pay off your credit cards.
Get term life insurance if you have a family to support.
Fund your 401(k) to the maximum.
Fund your IRA to the maximum.
Buy a house if you want to live in a house and you can afford it.
Put six months’ expenses in a money market fund.
Take whatever money is left over and invest 70% in a stock index fund and 30% in a bond fund through any discount broker and never touch it until retirement.
If any of this confuses you, or you have something special going on (retirement, college planning, tax issues) hire a fee-based financial planner, not one who charges a percentage of your portfolio.

*From Dilbert and the Way of the Weasel, 2002 -Scott Adams


Active funds are a losing bet, and it just gets worse as time goes on. Check out the data.

Vanguard funds are better than...
A.77% of active funds over a 12 month period.
B.85% of active funds over a 3 year period.
C.91% of active funds over a 10 year period.

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/article/fund-performance-082014?SYND=RSS&Channel=AN


People who tell you otherwise, are not using real data/results over a long period.

 

[supton]

Or what to predict what will happen--and will somehow benefit from it when that does happen.

*

I've done a few searches for podcasts for this sort of thing, but more elementary. Haven't found what I wanted. But I did see recommendations for various podcasts talking about this sort of thing.

*

I lean towards surfstar's recommendation, although I'm not sure I'd recommend first funding the 401k then going to index funds--IMO at some point one is going to want money prior to retirement, but retirement funds are locked until 59.5. Like everything else one has to pick their risk/reward ratio, and erring on dumping as much as possible into retirement makes a lot of sense, but locks up a pile of money for a really long time.

I wish years ago I had gotten into the habit of 10% into retirement and 10% into an index fund! Then increased those #'s as I got pay raises.

 

[surfstar]

Your 401k and Roth investments should also be in low-cost index funds at whatever asset allocation (stock:bonds) you are comfortable with, risk-wise.

If you need to save for a down payment on a house, then you should be investing in low-risk, short term, accessible accounts (bonds, CDs, or similar).

If you think you want to gamble and can "beat the market", then allocate 5-10% of your portfolio and try it for a while, and see how you do. Don't assume a short term gain means you should move all your assets to this - this is "fun money" and should be kept to a small % of your portfolio - nothing more than you're comfortable loosing all of.

 

[99Saturn]

Originally Posted By: surfstar
Fund your 401(k) to the maximum.
Fund your IRA to the maximum.

Originally Posted By: supton
...although I'm not sure I'd recommend first funding the 401k then going to index funds--IMO at some point one is going to want money prior to retirement, but retirement funds are locked until 59.5. Like everything else one has to pick their risk/reward ratio, and erring on dumping as much as possible into retirement makes a lot of sense, but locks up a pile of money for a really long time.

(Semi)-solution - not really but just a thought... really depends on what you need/want the money for prior to retirement.
1. Fund your 401K to the max amount needed to get full company match.
2. Fund your Roth IRA which allows you to withdraw principal penalty free.
3. ...
Personally I'm not sure I would max a 401K before some other stuff (assuming by max we're saying federally allowed max - isn't that $17,500/year or am I way off?).

 

[youdontwannaknow]

Guys, sorry if my question wasn't very clear. I am NOT looking for investment advice. I am NOT even looking for future predictions of the market. I am only looking for good explantions for what happened (note the past tense) on that day, in other words for which facts and data already exist.

 

[supton]

Last I knew 401k was limited to $17,500 per year, although if over 50 or 55 (forget) you can put in a bit more IIRC.

Roth IRA:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roth_IRA
Max of $5,500 if under 50, $6,500 if over. Up to $10k can be withdrawn (after an intial 5 years) for home purchase. But I thought if you withdrew more, and before 59.5, then you lost the interest on that principle--which means it's no better than a savings account?

I pretty much assume those monies are locked up until 59.5, barring catastrophy.

No small chunk of change to max out both.

 

[surfstar]

Daily info here.

Seriously. ^
You'll see a down day like today and its because of uncertainty in Europe or the Middle East, then you'll see an up day and they'll say the same or opposite. Its all noise. Choose CNN, FOX, whoever you want, financial experts are all talking out their a__. Choose one and listen or better yet, not

 

[Recalculating]

Seeking Alpha

 

[99Saturn]

Sorry OP I know it's OT but...

supton - With a ROTH IRA, there's a distinction between distribution of contributions and distributions of earnings.

Contributions can be withdrawn penalty free (contributions being a portion of the $5,500 yearly contribution cap - in other words I believe a rollover contribution from a traditional IRA, 401K, etc. may have different stipulations). Distribution of earnings are subject to a slew of rules and exceptions as to when penalty free withdrawal may take place or what the penalty payment it.

Decent writeup here: http://www.obliviousinvestor.com/roth-ira-withdrawal-rules/

 

[supton]

Originally Posted By: 99Saturn
Sorry OP I know it's OT but...

supton - With a ROTH IRA, there's a distinction between distribution of contributions and distributions of earnings.

Contributions can be withdrawn penalty free (contributions being a portion of the $5,500 yearly contribution cap - in other words I believe a rollover contribution from a traditional IRA, 401K, etc. may have different stipulations). Distribution of earnings are subject to a slew of rules and exceptions as to when penalty free withdrawal may take place or what the penalty payment it.

Decent writeup here: http://www.obliviousinvestor.com/roth-ira-withdrawal-rules/


That clarifies stuff. Thanks!

 

[D189379]

Originally Posted By: youdontwannaknow
There are tons out there with everyone pretending they are the experts. Looking to get some recommendations from people who have been in this long enough to tell which ones are better at than most. I am looking for something that tells me why the sotck markets did what they did today or yesterday, and which areas (sectors, industries, etc..) did best/worst.
Thanks.



As an amateur, you're better off ignoring the day to day stuff and focus one the year to year stuff.

 

[supton]

I think he just wants to follow what people are saying--I have yet to see where he has said he wants to jump and ride the tide&waves to financial prosperity. For all we know he wants more info than one gets off the nightly news, not that he wants to act upon it.

 

[bigt61]

I follow Morningstar, MarketWatch, Seeking Alpha and MSN Money - at least 3 hours per day - 7 days a week.

 

[JerryBob]

I like to read "The Tell" once in a while. But I kept my money in my 401k in one place for 32 years, and I am proof that buy-and-hold works.

Even a dummy like me can get rich, if you're disciplined, and don't sweat the dips. And remember that everyone is a genius in a bull market.

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/

Besides BITOG, I spend time on bogleheads , too. You think BITOG folks are opinionated and rude?

 

[cjcride]

Bloomberg.com

 

[eljefino]

fool.com

 

[Warstud]

September is historically a bad month for stocks. Options expiration.

 

[surfstar]

Originally Posted By: Warstud
September is historically a bad month for stocks. Options expiration.


http://www.businessinsider.com/average-monthly-returns-since-1929-2013-8

Look at the standard deviation, though, and there is no statistical significance between any of the months.
And how much is it thrown off by "The worst performing single month over this time period was September 1931, when the S&P composite fell 30 percent."

http://www.moneychimp.com/features/monthly_returns.htm

this sums it up better: But also notice that there are lots of exceptions to the pattern. There have been bad Januaries, and great Septembers. And of course the biggest trend of all is that the market goes up over time. So maybe the lesson here is the usual one, that long-term buy and hold is the winning strategy.

 

[Warstud]

Since 1971, September has been by far the worst month of the year for U.S. stocks. The average September return on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index ($INX -1.62%) from 1971 through 2012 is a loss of 0.52%, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac.