Will This Pandemic Be the Nail in the Coffin for Some Automakers?

[Saabist]

Originally Posted by pezzy669
What are the "so many" limitations and drawbacks outside of not being able to drive cross country with easy fuel ups? I'm honestly very curious.


There are quite a few if you just think about it a bit.

An obvious one is the many, many people who live where they don't have a garage or even a driveway where they can charge up overnight.

You don't have to be driving cross country to need quick fillups. Many people do a large amount of driving for business. There have been times when I needed to be on the road all day for work and certainly would not have the time to just hang around even for a "quick" charge during that time.

People who need a vehicle for towing purposes will certainly find themselves having to stop for charging more frequently than they might like.

Buyers such as myself who are cheap and refuse to spend the money on a new car would be looking at buying an old electric vehicle with questionable remaining battery life and possible electrical damage from moisture incursion when they are 10-15 years old or more. Ditto for people who buy old cars out of economic necessity. (As a basis of comparison my current daily driver is now 23 years old. I purchased it when it was 14 years old and it is still going strong, likely to provide several more good years. What are the prospects of getting that kind of service from an inexpensive 14-year-old electric car?)

It's not hard to come up with cases where electric vehicles as they exist today are simply not a good fit.

 

[CKN]

Originally Posted by Saabist
Originally Posted by pezzy669
What are the "so many" limitations and drawbacks outside of not being able to drive cross country with easy fuel ups? I'm honestly very curious.


There are quite a few if you just think about it a bit.

An obvious one is the many, many people who live where they don't have a garage or even a driveway where they can charge up overnight.

You don't have to be driving cross country to need quick fillups. Many people do a large amount of driving for business. There have been times when I needed to be on the road all day for work and certainly would not have the time to just hang around even for a "quick" charge during that time.

People who need a vehicle for towing purposes will certainly find themselves having to stop for charging more frequently than they might like.

Buyers such as myself who are cheap and refuse to spend the money on a new car would be looking at buying an old electric vehicle with questionable remaining battery life and possible electrical damage from moisture incursion when they are 10-15 years old or more. Ditto for people who buy old cars out of economic necessity. (As a basis of comparison my current


There you go.............I drove for as living-outside sales in Southern California. Member of the "million mile club". The day was very, very rare when I drove more than 300 miles-that's about max range for some electric vehicles. You cited examples -while accurate is for the minority. Most people do have access to be able to charge at home-or even at work.

We get it- "new tech phobia" is alive and well on BITOG. It sounds like there is a Crown Vic in your future.

 

[4WD]

The comments folks have responded to were about making cheap EV's as in "affordable" … Tesla is not cheap, so let's assume he figures GM is supposed to do EV cheap since it was their popular SUV's he trashed …
(what I own).

So Jeff is the perfect Tesla guy … makes a ton of money … sun shines and it's a mild climate … can sell to the grid … all good. That's Tesla, done. But it remains to be seen if when GM bets the farm on EV if it works out.

Big problem is all these free advisors are not going to buy a GM … and this GM buyer is not going to buy an EV.

 

[wag123]

Originally Posted by Saabist
Originally Posted by CKN

That's because gas prices RIGHT NOW are cheap.

BTW, I was around Some of us were around in the 70's when people couldn't get enough of Toyotas (junk at the time) and VW bugs that would get decent millage. Then American car companies put out real junk called the Chevette, Pinto, and Vega and people couldn't buy them fast enough.

So-don't discount EV's/Hybrids, etc. in the future.

Remember Tesla is America's largest auto maker when it comes to electric cars-and they are not cheap.

No, the lack of interest in electric cars has nothing to do with today's low price of gasoline. It has to do with cost and functional limitations, which are quite severe in a lot of use cases. Most people had little interest in them even when gasoline was more expensive. (I am one of the "some of us" that was around in the 1970s. Toyotas and VWs were most definitely not junk in comparison with their domestic competition.)

Perhaps electric cars are your future but they are not mine. I can guarantee you that there will never be one in my driveway.

I have zero interest in Elon Musk or Tesla for a variety of reasons that I'm not going to get into here.
+1
I need the capability of being able to jump in my vehicle and drive 1300 miles on a moment's notice (that is one reason why I keep my vehicles well maintained and ready to go at all times), and I have 2 trailers that I need to pull occasionally. An EV is definitely not in my future either, you and I are not alone. If the auto manufacturers decided that they were only going to build and sell EVs, I would keep what I have and do whatever I had to do to keep them on the road.

 

[Saabist]

Originally Posted by CKN

There you go.............I drove for as living-outside sales in Southern California. Member of the "million mile club". The day was very, very rare when I drove more than 300 miles-that's about max range for some electric vehicles. You cited examples -while accurate is for the minority. Most people do have access to be able to charge at home-or even at work.

We get it- "new tech phobia" is alive and well on BITOG. It sounds like there is a Crown Vic in your future.

It was not unusual at all for me to drive more than 300 miles in a day when I was doing a lot of time on the road for business, and your 300 mile range prediction is predicated on a best-case scenario, not for example the freezing dead of winter in New England or other places that experience temperature extremes detrimental to batteries.

You think that people living in apartments with no place to charge up, or people who don't want to spend the money on a new car, or cannot afford one, are a "minority"? I don't know what kind of survey you took to determine that, but you may want to double check your figures. A 10, 15, even 20-year-old gasoline car can still be a practical proposition for a cheapskate or low-income person. Similar prospects for battery electric vehicles are dubious.

Around here there are few if any workplaces that offer charging facilities and those that do can only handle a few vehicles. To provide such facilities would require a capital investment that many companies would not be able to afford. There is no reason in the world for them to do given there already exists an excellent fleet of gasoline vehicles on the road along with a well-established and pervasive fuel distribution network that can fuel such vehicles in a few minutes, 24/7.

This has nothing to do with "new tech phobia", but a recognition that not all new tech is appropriate. ("New" and "improved" are not always the same thing.) Even today's gasoline powered vehicles are loaded with questionable technology, that costs a fortune to repair down the road, which makes older gasoline vehicles even more attractive.

There is nothing wrong with a Crown Vic, by the way. They are fine automobiles and superior in practicality to any of today's electric cars.

 

[Saabist]

Originally Posted by wag123
]+1
I need the capability of being able to jump in my vehicle and drive 1300 miles on a moment's notice (that is one reason why I keep my vehicles well maintained and ready to go at all times), and I have 2 trailers that I need to pull occasionally. An EV is definitely not in my future either, you and I are not alone. If the auto manufacturers decided that they were only going to build and sell EVs, I would keep what I have and do whatever I had to do to keep them on the road.

It has been my experience that many electric car fanboys have blinders on when they make claims about what will meet the needs of "most people". Just the fact that they ignore the vast number of people not in a position to have their own private charging station at home, and/or work in low-paying jobs where they cannot afford a functional electric car tells you that those electrification proponents are excluding a lot of ordinary, everyday people from fitting into their definition of "most". I guess in their view if you're not up to their utopian vision of electric car ownership you ride the bus or walk.

 

[Skippy722]

Originally Posted by Saabist


There is nothing wrong with a Crown Vic, by the way. They are fine automobiles and superior in practicality to any of today's electric cars.


The Model S has more cargo space than a crown Vic, despite being 16" shorter, and the model 3 has 5 cubic feet less than the Vic despite being a whopping 27" shorter.

Easier to park? Point to electric car. More cargo space? Point to electric car. Convenience of being able to "fill up" at home? Yep, electric car wins that as well.

Yes, the Vic is cheaper. But not everyone wants a nearly decade old vehicle.

 

[emg]

Originally Posted by CKN
We get it- "new tech phobia" is alive and well on BITOG. It sounds like there is a Crown Vic in your future.


Electric cars aren't 'new tech'. They're 19th-century tech.

It's quite likely I'll be driving on in twenty years. But that will be because I no longer need to drive long distances, and I can charge it from solar panels for the trips I do make.

 

[tbm5690]

Electric is the future, but it's not a blanket solution in the present. My biggest hesitation is the lack of the visceral experience of mashing the gas and hearing an engine come to life...the whole experience is different. Electric also means an easier bridge to autonomous...I know many look forward to this, but I like being a driver not a passenger.

 

[CKN]

Originally Posted by Saabist
Originally Posted by CKN

There you go.............I drove for as living-outside sales in Southern California. Member of the "million mile club". The day was very, very rare when I drove more than 300 miles-that's about max range for some electric vehicles. You cited examples -while accurate is for the minority. Most people do have access to be able to charge at home-or even at work.

We get it- "new tech phobia" is alive and well on BITOG. It sounds like there is a Crown Vic in your future.

It was not unusual at all for me to drive more than 300 miles in a day when I was doing a lot of time on the road for business, and your 300 mile range prediction is predicated on a best-case scenario, not for example the freezing dead of winter in New England or other places that experience temperature extremes detrimental to batteries.

You think that people living in apartments with no place to charge up, or people who don't want to spend the money on a new car, or cannot afford one, are a "minority"? I don't know what kind of survey you took to determine that, but you may want to double check your figures. A 10, 15, even 20-year-old gasoline car can still be a practical proposition for a cheapskate or low-income person. Similar prospects for battery electric vehicles are dubious.

Around here there are few if any workplaces that offer charging facilities and those that do can only handle a few vehicles. To provide such facilities would require a capital investment that many companies would not be able to afford. There is no reason in the world for them to do given there already exists an excellent fleet of gasoline vehicles on the road along with a well-established and pervasive fuel distribution network that can fuel such vehicles in a few minutes, 24/7.

This has nothing to do with "new tech phobia", but a recognition that not all new tech is appropriate. ("New" and "improved" are not always the same thing.) Even today's gasoline powered vehicles are loaded with questionable technology, that costs a fortune to repair down the road, which makes older gasoline vehicles even more attractive.

There is nothing wrong with a Crown Vic, by the way. They are fine automobiles and superior in practicality to any of today's electric cars.

Prove my point..........

 

[parimento1]

I love the idea of electric cars and have for some time. I dread sitting in back of a truck belching diesel fumes or behind an old Crown Vic with 500k miles smoking like mad. I always think to myself, "there must be a better way." The problem is I park on the street and an electric car is impossible to charge on the street at the current time, not to mention it takes hours to charge if there was a "charge station" I could drive to. I love electric cars, but they are not ready for primetime.

That being said, I think that is the future...either that or fuel cell vehicles. If they could build an electric car that you can charge in 15 minutes and go at least 150 miles and is about the price of a corolla id buy one in a heartbeat.

 

[4WD]

Why even bring up the model S … it's in a price range for what, 5% of population …

 

[bbhero]

Originally Posted by 4WD
Why even bring up the model S … it's in a price range for what, 5% of population …



Exactly right 4wd......

95 percent could not afford that...

And... The way things are now.... Guarantee that is not changing anytime soon.

 

[JeffKeryk]

EVs are not for everyone. But remember they are in their infancy as mass produced vehicles. This is the pioneering stage.
No one needs a Tesla. But that's true about most cars and trucks on the road.
I don't wanna even think about how much $$ I have spent on Corvettes... And I really didn't have the money to do so. Kinda stupid in retrospect.

Would I buy another Tesla? Heck yeah.

 

[ABN_CBT_ENGR]

Originally Posted by pezzy669


What are the "so many" limitations and drawbacks outside of not being able to drive cross country with easy fuel ups? I'm honestly very curious.


I'll give you a few and this comes from one project on them and a few on wind systems overseas. They sound good until ALL facts are on the table.

First theres energy conservation and the 2nd law- the available energy of the battery versus the energy in gas will never be equal so even though from the "outset" they may appear equal- the law of diminishing returns kicks in and over time the degradation curve outweighs the immediate illusion of a benefit. They wont carry the load equally for as long ( part they don't like to talk about when it comes to the electromotive force of these batteries)

You will see that in payload over time real quick ( looks good in the dash but degrades quickly)

Then the cost to infrastructure for a 1:1 swap- by the time you mine and process all those rare earths and extra alloys ( not just to replace all gas vehicles) but then generate the power to charge them all( and all that wiring)- you just exceeded the alleged damage and consumption you believe you are addressing in the first place ( the whole cannot be different than the sum of the parts)

and govt subsidies keep this technology afloat- not its own value. Always remember that if this technology was truly viable- every country ( even enemies) would be pursuing this at all possible speed because it would be true energy independence and the next super power. They know it wont work over the long haul so they only pay lip service to it while they build their oil/gas/nuclear infrastructure.

Theres no plea bargaining or work around for physics.

Bu the time all costs for infrastructure and maintenance of infrastructure are added in- the EV is the most EXPENSIVE and LEAST performing option available. It cannot and will not ever break even.

Yes they have a place and legitimate market niche but will never be a swap out.

 

[mpack88]

Why would you wish that? I see Lincoln and Buicks everywhere plus it fills the sedan market for Ford. Buick has a hugh demand in china so I dont see buick going anywhere.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Facts are funny things, just like statistics. People tend to wrap them around their point of view.
As pointed out many times, the manufacture of batteries is the primary cost and causes most of the emissions in the life of an EV.
Well, the poor manufacturing processes contribute more than 60% of the emmissions. Irresponsible and profit based rather than ecological based.

Government subsidies are not unique to EVs.

Battery degridation is real. Just how bad it is is yet to be understood; there is not enough data, yet. Tesla (and others I'm sure) are tracking results. We need better batteries. Who can say when we will see them?

In my opinion, the biggest issues are charging, range anxiety and cost.
I would not own our car if I could not charge at home. Starting every day with a full charge is incredible; ICE cars cannot compare. Living in Silicon Valley with solar panels is certainly not everyone's opportunity. A few owners, who charge at work, never charge at home and never use a supercharger.
You learn how to deal with range anxiety. How often do you drive more than 200 miles in a day? But it does not necessarily mean you have to sit on a charger for hours. Every owner I know has an ICE car as well.
These cars are expensive; I have to believe many buy them as a fashion accessory. They might be better off with a Civic or Corolla. But that's true of many purchases. Model 3 prices are lower than ever. If your situation is optimal, your overall cost might be lower than a Camry. And that's saying something. And you won't find a Camry that's as fun as a Model 3...

All good.

 

[Mr Nice]

Crown Vics are like a roach, impossible to kill.

EV are great for short hauls. Battery technology will get better.... but impossible to drive coast to coast without multiple rechargings.

 

[ABN_CBT_ENGR]

Originally Posted by JeffKeryk
Facts are funny things, just like statistics. People tend to wrap them around their point of view.

Battery degridation is real. Just how bad it is is yet to be understood; there is not enough data, yet

In my opinion, the biggest issues are charging, range anxiety and cost

How often do you drive more than 200 miles in a day? But it does not necessarily mean you have to sit on a charger for hours. Every owner I know has an ICE car as well.



Facts are facts because they are proven- its the conclusions drawn from them that are manipulated as in this subject.

Its "3 blind men and en elephant" method of cherry picking data to support an agenda while deliberately suppressing facts that put it all in context.

Use the bolded example- that's a non sequitur statement because in terms of the battery and load- that distance is relative to the vehicle geometry, resistance and payload.

The 4 ft long electric roller skate can do it but the panel truck loaded with crew, tools and parts may only get 50 miles. Yet the recharge requirement is the same ( time and energy)

Significantly changing energy release (discharge and charge) is a property of the materials and conversation of energy- that's not a mystery and well known so this "veil' always saying we need new technology is a red herring because there is little ability to change the material resistance and ability to react. Some improvement yes but not significant.

Its not as much a point of view as it is the engineering realities of those who actually are in the business versus those peddling a fantasy.

These things don't fail because they don't work ( they do)- they fail because they do not have the potential ( stored energy available) in terms of materials manufactured, ability to generate energy ( electricity) or anything else in a 1:1 comparison with dino/nuclear energy. (not even counting the infrastructure to support it).

That's where it matters. Sure theres a niche segment and a degree of benefit but never a 1:1 replacement as the green people try to sell.

Its a physical impossibility. All the faith, belief, hope, marketing and argument ad populum reinforcement isn't going to change it.

 

[emg]

Quote
EVs are not for everyone. But remember they are in their infancy as mass produced vehicles. This is the pioneering stage.


No, the pioneering stage for EVs was back in the 1800s. People have been trying to make them work better than ICEs for hundred and fifty years.

Long-term, it's a better technology, because modern electronics can do fancy stuff like instantly shifting torque between wheels more easily with electric motors than ICEs. But it needs better and cheaper batteries to be viable for the mass market, and there's no sign of those in the near future.