Why Home Solar Panels No Longer Pay in Some States

[Shannow]

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/27/busine...-share&_r=0

As I've tried to explain in other threads, rooftop solar, which is generating while no-one is home using it is pushing the energy markets around.

Supply and Demand, when a disruptive technology like solar goes in OVER the top of existing infrastructure pushes prices down while the sun is shining, and makes the peaks more expensive as generators leave the market.

Quote:
Mr. Holtmann was occasionally among the highest users during the summer, so he was happy to save money, while doing something to reduce harm to the environment.

Not long after moving into his house in 1973, he installed a solar water heater. The first set of solar panels went on the roof around 2008. That slashed his annual electric bill to $78 from about $1,300. But the bill shot up again after he bought the new car, a Chevy Volt electric hybrid, so he bought a second set of panels in 2014.

The rate schedule Mr. Holtmann chose was based on PG&E’s longstanding assumption that the highest demand for the utility’s electricity was occurring between noon and 6 p.m. But now, because there is so much solar energy pouring into the grid from morning through late afternoon, the utility’s peak demand comes closer to the evening, when the solar supply drops sharply as the sun sets.


He needs to stay home and charge his car, and drive only at night.

 

[Chris142]

We looked into Solar. Didn't look like it would pan out. Our month;y electric bill averages $90/month. It's been extremely hot this summer and we are using the AC 24/7 and our bill jumped to $160.

The Payment with Solar is $140/month + whatever extra you consume. Cheaper to keep paying edison.

 

[macarose]

I looked into it for my business and my home.

Even with generous subsidies it wasn't even close.

I frankly see an electric car as a 'no gas station' convenience. The only time it has made sense to purchase one is if you lived in the areas that offered $12,500 off the price along with free fueling stations conveniently located to your work. Even then, it only made sense to lease the vehicle given that electrics depreciate like pre-bankruptcy Chryslers.

 

[KingCake]

I don't understand the math here. Why are their peak times? If he's not consuming 100% of his solar shouldn't it be sold back to the electric company for credit? Since when do utilities charge more during peak hours?

In my state it's flat $ per kwh no matter what.

Most solar systems pump the solar into the grid full time. You never actually directly use the panels as a source. It just looks like it on your bill b/c of the credit for selling energy back.

 

[Shannow]

Smart meters...soon everyone will have them, and you'll be billed via time of use

 

[SuperDave456]

Solar panels have only paid with a large subsidy.

I have a coworker who worked for 2 years as a sales person for a Solar Panel manufacturer.
He kept encountering VERY EDUCATED consumers who would ask him questions about being "green" that he couldn't answer, and they'd then provide him the sources.
He told me "It becomes very difficult to sell someone something that has Zero impact on the environment, as it takes as much energy to manufacture a panel as it will produce in its usable lifetime, and takes 15-20 years to pay off in savings."

He loved the company, but he didn't agree with their marketing, and the majority of consumers are better informed than the company would have the sales people think.
Ultimately he left the company to pursue other opportunities, but he was still seriously disappointed in the aftertaste of that entire industry.

Last time I took a look into it I figured it would take me between 18-20 years to recover my investment.
Instead I bought new windows and more insulation in the attic.

That was a lifetime ago, back when working for a Multi National Bank was a safe thing to do.
Memories... it was nice to have a single 9-5 job that would pay the bills.

 

[HTSS_TR]

Originally Posted By: Shannow
Smart meters...soon everyone will have them, and you'll be billed via time of use

We, SCE(Southern california Edison) customers, had smart meter for more than 5-6 years.

As of now we are being charged with standard residential rate plan (schedule D). This rate plan had 4 tiers and changed to 3 tiers, the base tier is about 16 cents a kWh for a limited usage, the next tier is 23 cents and the top tier is 29 cents.

The base tier is allocated with 10 kWh a day in summer and 9 kWh a day in winter. 101% to 200% over Baseline is tier 2, more than 200% over baseline is tier 3.

SCE also has Residential Time-of-Use (TOU) rate plan for people who has a electric vehicle and charge it at night. They also has "EV plan" but you need a second meter for the EV charging.

But in 2019, many residential customers will transition to a Time-of-Use (TOU) rate plan.

Personally, Solar never paid in my case. I use about 7-8 kWh a day in winter month from October till May. Only 4 months from June to September I may use upward 30-35 kWh a day for few days a month.

For some states and/or cities like Phoenix, Arizona Solar may make sense in complementing grid power during summer months. But someone tried to install much larger system to sell back to utility company at retail rate to make some money. The new law reduce the sell-back rate to around wholesale price and the solar owners are crying.

PS Last year I paid about $400 for full year, the estimated Time-of-Use (TOU) are up to $600/year, an increase of 50%.

 

[HTSS_TR]

Originally Posted By: macarose
I looked into it for my business and my home.

Even with generous subsidies it wasn't even close.

I frankly see an electric car as a 'no gas station' convenience. The only time it has made sense to purchase one is if you lived in the areas that offered $12,500 off the price along with free fueling stations conveniently located to your work. Even then, it only made sense to lease the vehicle given that electrics depreciate like pre-bankruptcy Chryslers.

I don't know much about other EV's(electric vehicles), but for Tesla Model 3 at $35k(before Federal and state tax credits) is about BMW 325i base price. Taken into account the gasoline price vs electricity cost, maintenance cost ... Model 3 resale value isn't worse than BMW325 after 5-10 years.

Depreciation of EV is higher than ordinary cars because EV has tax incentive for original buyer, therefore when it is sold that $7500 Federal tax incentive is taken out of the car value. Ex, a Nissan Leaf original buyer paid $25,000 his actual cost is $17,500 after federal tax incentive, if he sold his Leaf after 1 year for $12,000 it sounds like he lost $13,000 but his actual lost is only $5,500.

Comparing resale value of Tesla Model S with Mercedes Benz S class or BMW 740i or Audi A8, they are about the same after 2-3 years(also take into account the tax incentives Tesla owners received from Federal and state governments).

For Californian, we have good reason to get an EV, we paid much higher gasoline price at the pump than national average. Yes, our electricity rate at over 18-20 cents kWh is higher than national average(we have nothing below national average) but according to our local utility calculation, the electricity to change an EV over night is about $650 a year for 15k miles, compares with more than $2000 for 25 MPG average at $3.75/gal premium(BMW 325i).

 

[splinter]

Doesn't actually pencil out for me and mine.

Although we try to never consume more than our 'fair share,' energy consumption is seldom top of mind.

 

[Rand]

Mine can never get that low,

Dishwasher that requires "extra heat" setting due to hot water at 135F
Electric hybrid hot water tank.. still 2-3x cost of natural gas hot water tank.
Electric Dryer
Clothes that require washing in at least warm water to get work stains out.
Computer equipment on 24/7@60watts.
Electric stove.

Accessories such as TV, Fridge...

About 630kwh in winter, 500kwh in spring/fall, 700kwh summer.

On the other hand.. my natural gas bill is cheap.

28$ 7 months of the year,
47$ average other 5 months.

28 is the connection charge.

I wish I had gas hot water tank, and gas stove.. but doesn't pay to replace until something dies.

 

[dave1251]

Here the reason is the utility can not make enough profit because there is so much residential solar customers. Also a maximum of 30 residential customers can get solar a month.

http://www.abc15.com/news/region-central...-stifling-solar

 

[AirgunSavant]

I signed up Friday at 6.65 cents a KWH here in MD.
I was at 7.9 cents. That's cheap

 

[Johnny2Bad]

Residential use here is $C 0.13 kw/H ( $US 0.1016). There are no tiers, unless you are a commercial user.

 

[crazyoildude]

Smart meters are a very bad thing health wise.. And there is a lot more read up on it.

 

[bvance554]

Did we really think we could drive the energy companies out of business if we all put panels on our roof? This is no surprise.

 

[Johnny2Bad]

Well, the fundamental problem is the Utility must size it's system to provide sufficient power, plus a little extra as demand is always increasing year-to-year, for the highest demand expected during the year. That could be as little as 1 hour's worth of demand over an entire year. So they scale to provide power for that one hour. That is their cost structure in a nutshell ... they pay to provide X capacity, and all unused capacity brings no revenue for basically the rest of the year, to one extent or another.

You will never put the utility out of business, no matter how many panels you put on your roof. For one, someone has to manage the power and demand, so even if the Utility generated zero power, it would still have a critical role to play in the grid.

Also, because the rooftop system is not consistent ... maybe it's cloudy that day over the area that generates the most power, say, Nevada ... someone has to have the generating capacity to compensate for demand vs power provided. The best way to do that is via a Power Utility.

They are never going away, just like having a river run through your city doesn't mean you get free water delivered to your home.

 

[timish]

I have a 5.2KW array on my roof. 16 top of the line Sunpower panels. They pay for more than 65% of my electric bill per month here in Southern California.

Luckily the home I bought had them. Previous owner bought (so no lease) and spent over $45,000 to have them installed.

I'm a believer.

 

[Nebroch]

Originally Posted By: KingCake
I don't understand the math here. Why are their peak times? If he's not consuming 100% of his solar shouldn't it be sold back to the electric company for credit? Since when do utilities charge more during peak hours?

In my state it's flat $ per kwh no matter what.

Most solar systems pump the solar into the grid full time. You never actually directly use the panels as a source. It just looks like it on your bill b/c of the credit for selling energy back.


As Shannow tried to explain, everyone cannot push solar electricity to the grid during day time and purchase something else back at the evening when demand peaks. That day time electricity becomes worthless when solar PV capacity grows enough.

Here's a "duck curve" created by solar PV:

 

[supton]

Very interesting that solar is being disruptive; I never contemplated that aspect.

However, if enough people switch to PEV's and enough parking lots start sporting chargers, would that offset the issue?

 

[KingCake]

Originally Posted By: Johnny2Bad
Well, the fundamental problem is the Utility must size it's system to provide sufficient power, plus a little extra as demand is always increasing year-to-year, for the highest demand expected during the year. That could be as little as 1 hour's worth of demand over an entire year. So they scale to provide power for that one hour. That is their cost structure in a nutshell ... they pay to provide X capacity, and all unused capacity brings no revenue for basically the rest of the year, to one extent or another.

You will never put the utility out of business, no matter how many panels you put on your roof. For one, someone has to manage the power and demand, so even if the Utility generated zero power, it would still have a critical role to play in the grid.

Also, because the rooftop system is not consistent ... maybe it's cloudy that day over the area that generates the most power, say, Nevada ... someone has to have the generating capacity to compensate for demand vs power provided. The best way to do that is via a Power Utility.

They are never going away, just like having a river run through your city doesn't mean you get free water delivered to your home.


Yep. But I think eventually, like all tech, panels will get cheap enough to make sound economic sense and it will explode. Utilities charge you a fee for pushing power back into the system, so they still get their buck coming and going.