Very interesting that solar is being disruptive; I never contemplated that aspect.
However, if enough people switch to PEV's and enough parking lots start sporting chargers, would that offset the issue?
When a new technology comes in over the top of an established grid, it becomes disruptive to the "business as usual" approach.
My state had a fully developed grid, that was in the early part of the century becoming stretched at peak. The (wholesale) generators ran at a slight loss most of the time, and made their money on the hot days, when the wholesale prices went from 4-5c/KWh to $10/KWh (retail was around 23c, IIRC, so during the peaks, the distributors were buying for $10, and selling for 23c)...didn't happen a lot, but was enough for the generators to pay a dividend.
One of the generators put in fast start GTs, and the retailers started paying them insurance (caps) products that would require them to start and run hard at the $30c/KWh wholesale price, and prevent the huge price surges.
600MW of fast start gas, over the top of an existing grid had an impact...peak prices were smashed, and the oldest coaler in the fleet was retired.
Incentives were given for people to put solar in (60c/KWh generated, versus 25c retail, and 3.5c Wholesale), and 500MW a year of solar started going on people's roofs...another disruptor. THIS one started pumping in "free" MW during daylight hours, meaning oversupply, and depressed prices...profitability of the remaining fleet dropped, and a 1,000MW power station (2x500MW) was closed as a result, and pressure on the balance.
It's what these disruptive technologies do, shift the status quo.
Wind does it, but far less predictably...South Australia lost it's last coaler in May, and is all wind and gas...
Thing is that now there's a few thousand MW of coal not there (in the good old days these WOULD have been retired, and new more efficient plant installed), and the sun shines when it does, so the peak prices have crept (jumped ???) back up. The heavier reliance on gas (plus exports) have made it a trade-off between gas price and electricity price...generate with gas, and gas prices rise, electricity drops, and vice versa.
There's good reason for dropping the solar feed in tarrifs to a rate that's not multiples of the retail, and closer to the wholesale cost of electricity, as they are now significant players in the grid, and don't contribute anything to stability, frequency control, or power factor...in fact without the grid, they (and wind) don't generate.
Moving forward, renewables will HAVE to provide these things, and the only way that they can do that when the sun's not shining/wind's not blowing is with storage, and that's 25c round trip evel on free electricity with whole of life of storage taken in.
