Why do people keep calling asking if I want to sell my property?

[PandaBear]

With the fleeing from California to states like Utah, Nevada, Arizona, etc., I find this statement hard to believe. EVERYTHING I HAVE READ says demand is vastly out pacing inventory and the fundamentals on a real estate bubble just isn't there. A consequence of (post COVID) you can work from home anywhere you want to relocate as long as you have an Internet connection.

The fundamental this time will be different, not from NINJA loans (the loan standard is so tight now a lot of bids have to be at least 30% down or more to justify). Today's loan is from stock market cash out money and large commercial holding (because money has no where to go and the easy long term holding is SFH if you have the horizon to hold for it).

FYI the 3M+ market in our area has cooled off a bit after the recent stock correction, not yet collapsed but it seems like the top buyers are cashing out stock to pay for their houses.

The bubble to pop for sure is NFT and crypto, but what else, and when, and where (i.e. 97 is Asia, last year was Turkey, 01 was Japan, etc).

 

[BMWTurboDzl]

It's coming sooner than later. We are in a huge Real Estate bubble and most people think the good times are going to go on forever. We just passed 5% mortgages this week and I'm expecting 6.0% or higher by the end of the year. It's 2007 all over again but this time it's going to be worse. Look at inflation and interest rates are climbing? We are already ready slipping into a recession but as always the media is way behind the ball on this one. Check out Sage Logics on YT he's into the shipping industry. Listen to what he's telling you and showing you on what is happening with the volume of freight being shipped across the country.

It's not 2007 all over again. I can promise you that. The exposure is in with commercial owners of residential properties.

 

[Rmay635703]

Yes, I do agree but how sure are you with the next 6 months to 1 year?

The 2015-now tech boom are mainly driven by big money having nothing else to buy in the market so they have to "create new things" to invest in, sovereign fund, oil money, hedge fund, etc. They also drive up property prices after that because nothing is paying enough interest and dividend to justify that. Residential SFH is just one of them (the other is the massive farmland holding today by big funds).

So yes it will eventually collapse, but when and whether it gets inflated away first or not.

I didn’t say 6m-1year, other dude did

Housing bubbles usually take 3-5 years but this one came on abnormally rapid and is basically unprecedented in this country

6m-1year we won’t be “crashing “ but there should be more inventory and some of the corporate nuts will be desperate to unload bad purchases which should soften prices and competition a little.

@1year+
It is also very likely that many areas will be having massive layoffs next year or the year after of higher paid employees despite there being lots of low paid hospitality job openings. I expect next year to be rough for upper middle class folks which also should depress prices in many markets

It's not 2007 all over again. I can promise you that. The exposure is in with commercial owners of residential properties.

The trouble is glass segal was never re-instated. You will just have a different type of collapse and indeed shadow banks were already bailed out in 2020 for just the reason you state,
Shadow bank bailout made corporate owners double down due to no consequences
Fed needs to let these bozos fail but won’t which means we likely won’t see things deflate unless the floor falls

Yet the banks won't give you a lousy 1% on savings.

My last long term 5%+ CD came to term a couple years ago, quite shocking what cash drunk banks do

 

[atikovi]

We just passed 5% mortgages this week and I'm expecting 6.0% or higher by the end of the year.

Yet the banks won't give you a lousy 1% on savings.

 

[Wolf359]

Realtors are quitting in droves, which usually in a normal world means a real estate correction is imminent
The trouble is all the bailout money drunk commercial interests buying homes, 75% of homes in this area were purchased by a commercial entity, some areas are much lower but 35% corporate in the nationwide home market is still a massive manipulator of prices

I don't think that really means anything. No inventory means very few sales so not enough sales to go around to all those new Realtors. It's a hard business to break into as it's really all about who you know or who you can get to know.

Basic factors are still the same, not enough inventory and NIMBY means not too many new properties get built. Meanwhile population still goes up so demand still goes up. Still bidding wars out there. Last time this happened, prices didn't start to go down until interest rates leveled off. Prices are still up even as interest rates go up because people want to lock in the rate now before it goes up even more.

 

[Rmay635703]

I don't think that really means anything. No inventory means very few sales so not enough sales to go around to all those new Realtors. It's a hard business to break into as it's really all about who you know or who you can get to know.

Basic factors are still the same, not enough inventory and NIMBY means not too many new properties get built. Meanwhile population still goes up so demand still goes up. Still bidding wars out there. Last time this happened, prices didn't start to go down until interest rates leveled off. Prices are still up even as interest rates go up because people want to lock in the rate now before it goes up even more.

Employment levels of realators track housing crashes

Foreclosures are on the rise. Here’s what that says about the housing market

In January there was a seven-fold increase in foreclosure starts, new data shows.

www.marketwatch.com

7-fold increase in foreclosure starts which also follows the narrative and would cause a large jump in inventory

 

[OVERKILL]

Some realtors are now prostituting themselves and knocking on doors telling home owners they can get them ___% over the value of their home.

Must be bad with such little inventory and they have to be knocking on doors.

I get letters almost weekly asking me if I'll sell. I just shred them.

 

[PandaBear]

@1year+
It is also very likely that many areas will be having massive layoffs next year or the year after of higher paid employees despite there being lots of low paid hospitality job openings. I expect next year to be rough for upper middle class folks which also should depress prices in many markets

Do you mean massive layoffs on higher paid employees due to profit margin reason? or them moving to lower col area so they won't need to be paid as much if they are hiring remote people?

 

[Dave Hess]

It's coming sooner than later. We are in a huge Real Estate bubble and most people think the good times are going to go on forever. We just passed 5% mortgages this week and I'm expecting 6.0% or higher by the end of the year. It's 2007 all over again but this time it's going to be worse. Look at inflation and interest rates are climbing? We are already ready slipping into a recession but as always the media is way behind the ball on this one. Check out Sage Logics on YT he's into the shipping industry. Listen to what he's telling you and showing you on what is happening with the volume of freight being shipped across the country.

I also follow the trucking industry and the long haul truckers crisscrossing the USA 5-6 weeks on the road, go home for 2 weeks to rest and back out on the road for another 5-6 weeks. Truckers were warning about the economic slowdown back in 2019.

I sent someone here on BITOG a PM as to why I’m “having cash on the sidelines“ warning him of the “bad news on the horizon”. Hopefully he can repost exactly what I sent him, he knows who he is….

Fracking wells run 24/7 and need constant water, sand, machinery, etc… truckers were warning of lots of bankruptcies in the fracking industry LONG before Covid had shut the country down and oil went negative.

What do CB talking, gear shifting, jake braking truckers know about the economy that the MBAs from degree mills like Princeton, Harvard, Yale, Duke, Georgetown, Wharton don’t know ?????

 

[dwasifar]

Only when I'm bored but they often leave a message when I don't.

This is why they call, and why they leave messages. The correct reply should be, "No, I never answer."

Answering these calls validates your number as a live, working number in the scam-dialer lists. It's sad, but in the modern world you should absolutely never answer an unknown call.

 

[nthach]

Realators are quitting in droves, which usually in a normal world means a real estate correction is immenint
The trouble is all the bailout money drunk commercial interests buying homes, 75% of homes in this area were purchased by a commercial entity, some areas are much lower but 35% corporate in the nationwide home market is still a massive manipulator of prices

In the Bay Area, you have realtors joining a brokerage called Compass that does it all(MLS, photos, renovations, staging), you eat it from the equity at the time of sale. Redfin has also disrupted that market. Else, realtors here have to specialize or work for high-end prospects.

Also, the big corporate landlords as well as property managers who are nothing more than glorified slumlords who evict people on rent control for a more profitable tenant who more than likely works in tech and wants the luxury of working close to the office and their social lives are also buying up large apartment complexes and buildings left and right despite rent control.

 

[PimTac]

I get them five or ten times a day for not just my home buy my storage places and warehouses.

This part of the original post is the key. If you owned a single home then you might be getting a call a week or whatever. You are in a totally different situation than the average person.

 

[nthach]

It's not 2007 all over again. I can promise you that. The exposure is in with commercial owners of residential properties.

Yep, but I also feel the corporate landlords such as Blackstone and Wedgewood are also smart and build just enough below-market housing to meet equal housing laws and qualify for city subsidies for affordable housing.

It’s the glorified “property managers” and their tenants who stand to lose the most - but also, a rent-controlled older building can be cooked on the books much more than a new “luxury” building.

 

[Wolf359]

I've owned property for years, I always got calls, postcards in the mail and letters. Nothing really new. Most of the books out there have people start out by bird dogging which is finding the properties. Lots of those we pay cash places are franchises and the way they make money is to offer 70% of the value of the home and hope that someone desperate for the cash bites.

As for the foreclosures, it's not really that big a factor now. While people may fall behind and get those notices, the market is high enough that they can just sell instead of letting it fall into foreclosure. And the foreclosures aren't the same as last time. Last time I saw lots of houses that were trashed and hadn't even been cleaned out by the bank, they just threw it on the market as is and of course that drove the prices and comps down for everyone. Now you see a bank foreclosure and the banks put in 10-20k to fix the place up, I've seen new kitchens and paint on the last batch of foreclosures and they basically went for market value and didn't tank the entire market by having those trashed out shells sold for below market.

 

[Dave Hess]

I get letters almost weekly asking me if I'll sell. I just shred them.

Here in the USA, many cities you can look up the owner’s name , property taxes paid and other info online at the property tax website of county.

Very annoying when realtor has your name / wife’s name and knocks on your door soliciting their real estate business…..

 

[JC1]

I only wish I had an asbestos laden, lead paint covered, termite infested property built on an old toxic waste site with a leaking gas tank buried in the yard just so I could screw them.

And they would still have a bidding war....

 

[CharlesInCharge]

I've grown incredibly tired of the constant USE OF MY TIME, MY ADDRESS, MY PHONE NUMBER, etc. to harass me with endless solicitations. Just because I pay to live somewhere, or for a phone, or maintain an email address, does not give folks the right to incessantly contact me to sell me something that I don't want and didn't ask for, or to "buy" something (read: take advantage of desperate people) I'm not selling.

So I fight back. Every time I get a unwanted solicitation where they send a self-addressed prepaid envelope, I fill it with as much junk (untraceable back to me) and seal it and send it back. When scammers call or text me, I waste their time, ask endless questions very slowly, drawn out, etc. I also block numbers constantly. I'm considering starting to blow a loud whistle into the phone!

 

[ecotourist]

Every time I get a unwanted solicitation where they send a self-addressed prepaid envelope, I fill it with as much junk (untraceable back to me) and seal it and send it back.

Strap that prepaid envelope to a brick before putting it in the mail. A crappy one of course. No point in wasting good bricks.

 

[Vern_in_IL]

A guy at work was approached by a Relator. Some older couple wanted to buy his house.

He sold his house, bought another one closer to the school, and banked a profit of 30k. This was back in 2017.
...then he bought a ski boat, worked over the motor, and a vacation home 60 miles away on the big river to store his boat for weekend fun.

 

[Aredeeem]

What if the call is from the police or a doctor after your spouse, kid, relative was in a car accident.

My doctor is on my contact list. 99 percent of these dopey calls are from area codes 1000 miles away. Unknown callers simply aren’t answered. They’re blocked and deleted. I get very few since I’ve started doing that.