Why are these people experts?
- Thread starter J
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J we were talking about this at work. It's amazing how wrong economists are. In fact, many times over the last year, when they predict high jobs numbers, they have been low and when they predict low they are high. Economists know about as much about the economy as meteorologists know about the weather. Your trying to predict what is going to happen in a system full of infinte variables. It just aint going to happen that often.
I believe an "expert" is defined by someone who carries a briefcase and has travelled more than 50 miles to arrive at your location.
...or is that "consultant"?
Either way it's not good, especially in terms of our stock market. Let's get the crystal balls out of people's offices and make them do some real work.
...or is that "consultant"?
Either way it's not good, especially in terms of our stock market. Let's get the crystal balls out of people's offices and make them do some real work.
Mr. Rogers: Can you say "Chaos Theory"? Sure, I knew you could.
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I agree. I used to watch, with amusment, the good 'ol Reverend Jimmy Rogers (rodgers?) on MSNBC. He was always "preaching" something. I then began to realize that most of these experts are more expert in forming the market then they are at reporting it. That is, they are there to make you do what they would prefer you to do ...not necessarily what you should.
The eroneous market experts aren't the stupid ones, they are making a lot of money off their faulty predictions. The stupid ones are the people that believe them.quote:
Originally posted by J:
The stock market went down again Friday because
the economists' predictions were off by an order
of magnitude.
So, why are these idiots ordained as experts?
Why can't I be paid to make equally stupid
predictions about everything?
Jae
Actually, the market was going down anyways the news just sped up the drop. We are in a bear market so trend of least resistance is down.
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Daily Drives:
-2003 Toyota Tacoma PreRunner XtraCab, 2.7 Liter , Mobil1 Synthetic SS 5W-30.
ODO 9800 Miles.
-1995 Toyota 4-Runner 3.0 V6, Mobil1 Synthetic SS 10W-30.
ODO 91800 Miles.
http://community.webshots.com/user/amkeer
So, how does one get such a cushy job? I have
to meet deadlines and solve difficult problems
to earn my keep, but these "experts" can throw
darts at print-outs of random numbers. Now,
don't tell me skill and experience are part of
the criteria.
Jae
quote:
Originally posted by J:
So, how does one get such a cushy job? I have
to meet deadlines and solve difficult problems
to earn my keep, but these "experts" can throw
darts at print-outs of random numbers. Now,
don't tell me skill and experience are part of
the criteria.
JaeOnly about 20% of the "experts" manage to beat broad based market indexes such as the Wilshire 5000 or S&P in any given year. And it isn't the same 20% of the experts each year. I'm not smart enough to figure out which 20% of the experts are going to beat the indexes next year, so I primarily stick with the indexes.
The San Jose Mercury News used to have stock picking contest each year. They would bring in several experts and also have one of the staff throw darts at the stock exchange reports in the paper. The dart throwers won some years.
A good ol' boy went to New York and was taking a tour.
The NY tour guide proudly pointed out the bankers' and stockbrokers' beautiful yachts, riding high in New York Harbor. "And where," asked the good ol' boy naively, "are the customers' yachts?"
A few years back some zoo in Canada.... perhaps Toronto, had a yearly "contest" wherein one of their monkeys pointed at random to various firm names.
Then, for a year, those firms were tracked in regards to performance and the returns (or losses) an investor would receive.
It is with great amusement that, year after year, that monkey's "predictions" outperformed the experts and their "educated" advice.
So, I suppose, to make money in the stock market it should be monkey see monkey do.
Then, for a year, those firms were tracked in regards to performance and the returns (or losses) an investor would receive.
It is with great amusement that, year after year, that monkey's "predictions" outperformed the experts and their "educated" advice.
So, I suppose, to make money in the stock market it should be monkey see monkey do.
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