What’s your take on this? De-car-ification and EVs

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SubieRubyRoo

SubieRubyRoo

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So I was driving for a couple hours, RATM soothing my nerves and further killing my poor cilia, and I got to thinking. So Ford and a couple other manufacturers are essentially killing all their gas sedans/coupes/wagons save a few notables, and replacing them with CUV/SUV/etc. That got me thinking about CAFE, and this is nothing political so please try to stay away from that.

Cars are generally lighter, and more aerodynamic, and therefore more fuel efficient given an identical power train as an SUV/Van/etc. Yet automakers are killing them off left and right... which can't be good for their overall CAFE ratings. Still with me? So, here's the crux: have automakers been holding out on fuel-efficient technologies that will magically appear to save their CAFE hides, or is this a blatant, yet "silent" way to force us into EVs?

Again, I'm avoiding the politics part because this is a global movement... basically, if you want to buy a "car", it will essentially have to be an EV since those are going to be the only ones left. And if you want to buy something with an ICE, it will be a bigger, bulkier, costlier CUV/etc which will then carry a higher effective price because you'll need to burn more fuel to travel the same distance. I personally don't see any other real explanation, because those companies' halo cars (Mustang, Corvette, etc) are still available, and they make the least amount of sense for a daily-use vehicle when contrasted against all the sedans and coupes that's have gotten and will get the axe.

Thoughts?
 
They changed CAFE classes so what a vehicle "shades" with its presence means what MPG standard it has to meet.

A 1/2 ton truck with extended cab and 8 foot bed has to meet around 30, which is actually possible, and amazing!

A tiny truck like a 1985 Ranger has to hit 60-ish, well nigh impossible. Look at how the new Ranger is like 3 inches shorter than a 1/2 ton. Yeah.

Look at how the 2003 corolla grew all kinds of length, width, body kits etc compared to the 2002.

Cars are also not very profitable anymore. Got a 2019 prius AWD out-the-door for the MSRP of a base 2005 prius with less tech.
 
People like SUVs and Minivans. They are the modern day station wagon. My guess is car manufacturers build them because of demand.
If we could have only 1 vehicle, the RX450h would be the best choice; it does most everything well and gets better mileage than the TSX (waaaay better than the GS).
I believe over half of Lexus' sales are RX.
The ES300h would be a great sedan for those who want to burn less petrol but people buy the RX.
Heck, the biggest car maker, Toyota, will hardly discount the RAV4 Hybrid and they sell 'em like hotcakes.

I am not sure why people feel "forced into EV". Are we "forced into an ICE"?
 
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Originally Posted by SubieRubyRoo
Cars are generally lighter, and more aerodynamic, and therefore more fuel efficient given an identical power train as an SUV/Van/etc. Yet automakers are killing them off left and right... which can't be good for their overall CAFE ratings.


A company that doesn't exist doesn't have to worry about CAFE at all. Cars are a shrinking market segment. CUV/SUV is a growing market segment.

There is no conspiracy to push anyone into an EV. Automakers are reacting to a market that is moving away from one segment and toward another. If you can't see that a Mustang and a Fusion are sold to very different customers, you're not looking for an explanation, you're looking for a conspiracy.

Being a viable company and dealing with CAFE is preferable to building cars nobody wants and dealing with bankruptcy.
 
The automakers only make what sells, to do otherwise is business suicide. The thing I find funny is that the upright boxy cars of the 1900's to 1920's are back in style, even the low profile tires and huge rims!

I expect that as electric cars take more market share, slowly, the price of gasoline will fall as BIG OIL tries to stem their loss of market, However the new electric MB, Audi, Porsche, Jaguar are not really doing well in their sales.
 
It will be interesting to see how the new E=Hummer does considering how many electrons it will take to push that barge around. Then there is the time required to recharge e-vehicles while on a trip searching for a plug. Battery is the future. Hybrid at this time makes the most sense IMHO.
 
Manufactures sell what people want. People aren't buying as many cars and are buying a heck of a lot more SUV/CUV's these days.

People don't think about, care about, or otherwise even know what CAFE standards are. They want what they want. EV's remain a status symbol to the affluent. Mainstream America still loves their SUVs and pickup trucks.
 
My coworkers are buying SUVs and CUVs, they are not concerned about mpg as long as they are reasonable (i.e. 25+mpg for SUVs and 30mpg for CUVs), or they are buying Tesla Model 3s.

I still like gasoline compacts, but I'm odd and grew up in the 90s with import compacts, but not muscle cars. Ford and GM discontinue their mid sizes because that's what people don't buy.
 
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you are waaaay over-thinking this one...

car mfg's are moving away from cars because people don't want to by cars. There are numerous examples across all manufacturers.

A few electrics started as cars in large part because of the product cycle. It takes a while to get these things off the ground, and I don't think most mfg's would have lead with a more traditional car if they saw the popularity of the CUV 10 years ago. Plus, a lot of the new electric cars also fit into the compact crossover segment (Niro/Kona/Bolt, sorta/). Do you think the Model 3 is going to sell anywhere close to the volume of the Model Y? No way.

Crossovers and electric are both here to stay.
 
I think hatchbacks are coming back too though, which is a modern station wagon without being called a station wagon, yet its still a car. The difference between a hatchback and a CUV is miniscule. Even Jeep, it is hard to call some of them a SUV or even a CUV: they are a passenger car. What's a front wheel drive Jeep, that is a lot of them now? It's a passenger car.

I think what is shrinking market is the four-door sedan. Gasoline prices do have a lot to do with it too: I am paying $2.35 a gallon. A lot of it is marketing too.

Electric vehicles? Not seeing it. The US power grid cannot handle it. There are brownouts and power outages already. Get even 20-25% of the population using electric cars and it could be the end of cheap electricity as we know it, forever. Just wait until they start tacking the "gasoline road tax" on to your home electric bill since you might be the owner of an electric car.
 
In Canada, pickups, SUVs and CUVs make up 80%+ of new car sales.
And gas is $5.00 a gallon.
Consumers here have run away from sedans.

Consumers have decided AWD and a higher driving position trumps better fuel economy and somewhat better handling.
 
Originally Posted by Danno
In Canada, pickups, SUVs and CUVs make up 80%+ of new car sales.
And gas is $5.00 a gallon.
Consumers here have run away from sedans.

Consumers have decided AWD and a higher driving position trumps better fuel economy and somewhat better handling.

I'm reminded of the run-up in fuel prices prior to the Great Recession. People started ditching those SUV's and trucks. Yet your datapoint seems to suggest that if the fuel prices only slowly rise, people won't care. "Need" trumps running cost. Perhaps practicality trumps cost too?

Cars and trucks last longer than ever, but none of them last forever, and dare I say, they are only more expensive to fix now. People feel the "need" to swap on a regular basis (be it 3 years or 10 years); between purchase and running costs, it seems unwise to have a fleet of vehicles that are optimized for any given need (parking, reg, ins and then whatever else). A do-all vehicle tends to be wise. And... it would seem the market has spoken. We have small, medium and large AWD things.
 
The UK is moving to ban all petrol and diesel by 2035, after then all new vehicles sold will be EV/EV hybrids. The EU is not far behind...but America just can't quit gas. But eventually may be forced to due to the economics of things rather than our politics forcing the issue.
 
It shows..

No 1: MPG's were a purchasing decision with regards to choosing a car over a CUV/SUV. Gas prices have been relatively stable for over a decade and new technologies required to me FE requirements ended up reducing MPG's as a factor.
No 2: Aging populations prefer the easy of entry/exit of a CUV/SUV
 
Originally Posted by Mad_Hatter
The UK is moving to ban all petrol and diesel by 2035, after then all new vehicles sold will be EV/EV hybrids. The EU is not far behind...but America just can't quit gas. But eventually may be forced to due to the economics of things rather than our politics forcing the issue.

Couple things to consider:
-will the UK existent power delivery and production network could handle this without massive upgrades?
-most of Europe's countries are barely the size of some bigger countys in here in US. Based on distance alone + 4 seasons/cold season, EV could be just a big city/metro area thing.
Also, even here in US and also Canada there is the prospect of existent power delivery and production network could handle this without massive upgrades?
-Do we have enough rare elements to produce the necessary batteries? Or cheaper alternative industrially available?

This remain to be seen, also, since a global recession is kind of due in the next 2-5 years (we are past the regular 10 years cycle).

I think we will have some interesting stories for our grandkids/gran-grankids.

Now, where is my flying Jetsons car? Do I have to jump railroad cross to get it?
 
Originally Posted by PimTac

https://youtu.be/XmoPQuMlOYE

Nobody will own a car.

PimTac, you have way more experience seeing what is abroad, but let's think:
-this concept will go into existing developed public transport infrastructure
-places that could pay for it/ongoing system maintenance(re:China's push for more electric power production and less smog)

How it will fare in bicycle/motorcycle/rickshaw/$3k cheap Tata car/poor areas country?

I would be interested in our BITOG-ers international Road Warriors opinion, since they could see what is going on in other lots-of-money-available places.
 
Originally Posted by pandus13
Originally Posted by PimTac

https://youtu.be/XmoPQuMlOYE

Nobody will own a car.

PimTac, you have way more experience seeing what is abroad, but let's think:
-this concept will go into existing developed public transport infrastructure
-places that could pay for it/ongoing system maintenance(re:China's push for more electric power production and less smog)

How it will fare in bicycle/motorcycle/rickshaw/$3k cheap Tata car/poor areas country?

I would be interested in our BITOG-ers international Road Warriors opinion, since they could see what is going on in other lots-of-money-available places.





In my opinion, it won't. This will be in developed countries in developed cities. The transition will be over time.

As for developing countries, many are still stuck on what worked fifty years ago. Example, the Philippines. They still use Jeepneys that burn diesel or something and pedicabs that choke the side streets. Some companies have tried to push electric versions of these but their power infrastructure is so bad it is not dependable. There is also the issue of what happens in floods which happen regularly in the cities. Batteries tend to dislike water.

That same scenario applies to Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and on and on. All of these countries have horrific traffic in their major metro areas.
 
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