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Electric cars won't be taking over anything.
^^This. The modern world runs on petroleum and fossil fuels. It'll never happen. The entire infrastructure would have to be extinguished and totally rebuilt as if we were returning to the stone age again and starting from scratch.
 
I am not too optimistic about EV and all this self driving stuff. I think the companies are way too optimistic about EV's.
The R&D's are still dedicated improving ICE efficiency and combined with some kind of electrification (hybrid powertrains) is probably the best route to go in near future. Gasoline is still way more energy dense that any battery of today.

Also there are and always will be many people who don't have garage and means to charge their EV's.
I also doubt that people who regularly take long trips will opt for EV. Maybe they have two vehicles. One EV and the other ICE or hybrid set up.
ICE has a long history and is unlikely to go away soon.
 
^^This. The modern world runs on petroleum and fossil fuels. It'll never happen. The entire infrastructure would have to be extinguished and totally rebuilt as if we were returning to the stone age again and starting from scratch.

In the future the electric car ownership will be double digits-what the percentage of the fleet is the question. Amazon, UPS, have all committed to at least a partial electric fleet. Utah will be taking delivery of a few electric school buses shortly.
 
Pickup trucks outsell EV’s buy a huge margin. EV’s are less than 5% of sales. Growing, yes, but once the EV enthusiasts get their fix satisfied they have to break into the King Ranch crowd. Good luck with that.
 
Same here. If electric takes over which it will eventually I have no doubt then I’m leaving this career because I hate working on electric cars. My state just joined some other states so by 2024 the amount of ICE that can be sold at a dealership will decrease and then the number will go up every year after that. So my job is in jeopardy anyway.
Why? They still need suspension work and stuff.
 
Why? They still need suspension work and stuff.
That maybe true but I have a feeling it won’t be the same when they convert it all over to electricity. I mean they already have brake by wire so they probably will have suspension by wire or some ridiculous stuff they come up with next. I don’t think it will be serviceable components either like grease-able tie rods or sway bar end links or anything because they want these to be 100% clean and everything else.
 
That maybe true but I have a feeling it won’t be the same when they convert it all over to electricity. I mean they already have brake by wire so they probably will have suspension by wire or some ridiculous stuff they come up with next. I don’t think it will be serviceable components either like grease-able tie rods or sway bar end links or anything because they want these to be 100% clean and everything else.
None of those stuff have been greaseable for a long time.

Labor is expensive, parts are cheap. These days things either get swap out quick or they get shipped to 3rd world to be repaired and sold locally.
 
None of those stuff have been greaseable for a long time.

Labor is expensive, parts are cheap. These days things either get swap out quick or they get shipped to 3rd world to be repaired and sold locally.
I grease stuff like that all the time. Especially aftermarket stuff I make it a point to get grease able ones as they are better. But either way they probably aren’t going to let us have grease so there is that too.
 
Reminds me of when I was a little kid in the mid 1970s. They said by the 1980s we’d all be driving flying cars. It didn’t happen.
 
I wonder what was being said on bobisthehorseguy.com back when ICE was wheezing and coughing to make a couple hp per liter.
 
Eh, it’s not going to be an overnight thing anyways-it’s going to take some time to even build up enough places to charge up....gas stations had quite the start! In the next 10 years or so I still see at least a 50/50 mix of Both EV and ICE.

While there are advantages of EV, there are also many that need to be worked out.....
OK, there are 200 million ICE vehicles in the USA. To be at 50/50, that means there has to be 100 million EV vehicles sold in 10 years, or about 10 million per year on average, and for every year with a sales number less than that they have to accelerate sales in the latter years to make up for it. They sold around 300,000 EV's in 2019. Whoops, 10 million - 300,000 is 7,700,000 to be divvied up and added to the 10 million every year over the next 10 years. Ain't going to happen. It's just total hype. However, if someone wants to construct a time vs number of vehicles chart for EV's and show us the future let's see it so we can plot our progress. By the way, if we bring world sales into it, there are a billion ICE vehicles in the world.
 
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What is the scrappage rate of old vehicles? Pre-pandemic US vehicle sales was around 17M/year; I'm guessing around that number are retired? If sales=scrappage then that is like 8.5% scrappage rate. Problem is: it's not linear. Not a lot of 1 to 3 year old cars get scrapped, but I bet it's like 50% rates for anything over 10 years of age.

10 years is pretty aggressive. But I can remember when sedan sales outweighed CUV&SUV sales combined.

Anyhow. I tossed together a quick table, and with 30% growth rate of EV's, assuming ICE falls by whatever amount EV grows, in 15 years ICE would dwindle to very little--yet it's possible to still have an ICE heavy fleet.

Obviously--this is worse than tossing spaghetti at a wall: consumer habits can swing things wildly. Gas prices, taxes, other incentives. Plus it seems nothing is linear in real life--you can only have double digit growth for only so long, then other factors come into play.

EV.PNG
 
Good work. So with a 30% yearly growth rate in EV sales, they would compromise 9% of the fleet in 10 years from now and 26 % of the fleet in 14 years from now. That I think is possible with the caveats you mentioned. Well done.
 
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