Critical thinking and historical data suggest your assessment of single-family homes being at the top makes sense. I have thought the same for the past five years, but every year new single-family homes are hitting record highs on a MACRO basis. The saying what goes up must come down- may not apply to single family home prices/
We purchased a single-family home in SEP 2024. Yesterday I received an unsolicited email from Redfin, showing our home had a 13-month price appreciation of almost 12 percent. Not sure how Redfin came up with the gain, but I sense it is looking at MACRO price trends in our subdivision, and being near a military installation, our subdivision has high annual sales/ turnover of homes.
Our youngest Son is looking to buy a home. My recommendation to him- if you find a home you really like- buy it. History suggests he will be ok buying a home at the top of the market. The key to buying a home at the top of the market is to really like the home you are buying. As long as one really likes the home, temporary short term price drops are no big deal. And if you really like the home, more likely than not someone else will really like the home when it is time to sell.
On the other side of the spectrum- I don't recommend buying a home as person doesn't like--- that can end up burning the buyer, and when it is time to sell, buyers may not like the home either. Don't compromise at today's single family home prices--- wait for the right home and then figure out how to pay for it.