Wanna know why gas is going up - part 2

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Originally Posted By: bob_ninja
However how long will it take this autumn for a 16.7% gas price increase? Month? 2 months? Such a small improvement gets wiped out in no time these days.

Personally I think gas prices are much more likely to go down from here than up.
 
Originally Posted By: glennc
Originally Posted By: bob_ninja
However how long will it take this autumn for a 16.7% gas price increase? Month? 2 months? Such a small improvement gets wiped out in no time these days.

Personally I think gas prices are much more likely to go down from here than up.


There is no question that the US recession and concordant weakness in Europe and Asia will lower the demand and push prices down. However, for now China, Canada and other places are still not slowing down much, still using a lot of oil. So short term price won't drop much and will resume its march up as heating oil and fuel consumptions starts going up again in the fall. Of course, it depends on the winter as well.

Long term, as long as most people are not willing to change as this story demonstrates, the demand remains high and price keeps going up. Sure, a lot of people are making changes as well, but only at the margins.
 
I'm thinking more like prices will be down from here over the coming 2-5 years if not longer. Because oil prices are so inelastic, a small difference in either supply or demand can make a big difference in price. And the fact that there have been recent supply disruptions that have not caused prices to spike is to me an indicator of serious weakness in prices in the nearer term. I think the recent huge prices will turn out to be an historic anomaly not to be repeated for a long time.

Not that we will be back at $30/bbl. But maybe $50 - $80.

Just my humble opinion, of course - and conceivably just wishful thinking.
 
Originally Posted By: bob_ninja
Originally Posted By: Benzadmiral
Why the heck are all these people living so far from work and/or school?...


I have to admit 100 mile one way commute is too much. I have abouot 35 miles one way and consider that a lot. I just wanted to point out that jobs move a lot these days. Even if you get a house close to a job, still the job can move away from you.

My entire office was laid off just few weeks ago. Nothing to do with my performance or anything I could do about it. The new job happens to be in the same area, but I did work all over the town.

So often we don't control where our jobs are located. Still, you have a good point. Excessive commutes are not sustainable.

You're right, of course. If you've just bought a house and your job moves 30 miles farther away, you're stuck. But it seems hardly anybody even takes commute distance into consideration! I don't care if gas is .55/gallon or $5.00/gallon, one should factor it in.

Regarding another post asking why Americans emphasize comfort and convenience in their vehicles over cost and efficiency, I think we have an answer right here. If you're spending two hours (or more!) a day driving to and from work, you want to be comfortable and you want certain conveniences. A commute in a snarly econobox over rough streets is one thing at 15 minutes. At an hour it's another animal entirely, especially when you have a long stressful day ahead of you.
 
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