My understanding is that they will affect the Midwest and northeast the most. The Midwest get most of their oil from Canada and the northeast has direct connect with Canada for refined products like diesel and gasoline. The south and west will most likely avoid the tariff impact. But this is all speculation right until more time has passed.
Just to touch on some of the demand side contribution to gas prices. Vehicle miles traveled in 2024 only just surpassed 2019 but gasoline demand is still lower than 2019s numbers. So it appears, vehicle efficiency gains and electric vehicles have started to decouple gasoline demand from vehicle miles travels. So I would think that is one thing driving down gasoline prices, but refinery shut downs since 2019 might be making it somewhat of a wash.