Toyota CEO Claims EVs Worsen co2-emissions, Pushes Back on Proposed ICE Bans

That’s why utilities push time of use

Our existing Grid can support 50% EVs (not including HD equipment) if the cars charge during off peak hours

I definitely don't think that's the case for Cali. In Ontario our summer peaks hit around 24-25,000MW. Off-peak can still be as high as 18-20,000MW. Heck, here's January at 8PM (off-peak) from my records:
Screen Shot 2020-01-02 at 9.10.49 PM.png


And here's off and then on-peak in March (when demand is low):
Screen Shot 2020-03-31 at 10.22.40 PM.png

Screen Shot 2020-03-31 at 11.33.30 AM.png


July at 4PM:
Screen Shot 2020-07-03 at 5.28.19 PM.png


July at 10AM:

Screen Shot 2020-07-27 at 11.20.37 AM.png



Peak is 11-5 in the summer:

Screen Shot 2020-05-15 at 2.38.36 PM.png
 
2018, Sunday off-peak in July, demand is still almost 19,000MW because it was hot (and look at the output of our amazing ~5,000MW wind fleet)
Screen Shot 2018-07-15 at 12.11.12 PM.png
 
Without government you would not be writing this as internet would not exist. It is astonishing how many people who swear in markets and blame government do not know (not "do not understand," but don't know) basic tenets of capitalism and what Adam Smith preached; No government=no capitalism.
Perhaps with an ideal government to go along with his ideal market.

I think all I can say without crossing the politics line is we do not have ideal governance.
 
That doesn't feel right to me. I'd have to see the numbers from non-political sources. It also assumes that everything in the system can maintain close to 100% output 24/7, which I sorta doubt. Plus, there's the near 100% increase in coal, NG, and nuclear fuel consumption (more infrastructure).

I think what your missing is how far do people/cars really drive in a good non-covid year?

This source (below) isn’t political they mearly keep metrics of how far / long people drive for highway usage and non-EV purposes.


This data is from a time when people drove a lot more than they do now.

In effect 95% of road miles are driven by 0.2% of the population

The vast majority of EVs are currently owned by people who have short commutes and don’t go on car trips much. Based on Wisdots survey of the 3000bev owners registered they only averaged a little over 3000 miles per year.
But overwhelming most cars on the road don’t drive that much.

To condense what is written
78% of drivers average under 40 miles per day including all road trips (which may or may not involve their own car)

The lower 68% of cars average under 7.2 miles a day.
The lower 64% of people drive 4 or less days of the week.

So why does the distance the potential EV owners drive matter?

Because erring to the high end if 50% of cars were BEV they would only use about 2kwhrs per day of juice each.

Given this

That is only about 3% more electricity for residential use and a rounding error if we include industrial.

Even if the large majority of people that don’t drive far were to use lots more electricity and drive a lot further it’s still not going to affect much, after all this isn’t Japan were your mains is only 2000 watts and an extra microwave needs a grid upgrade.

And I can’t repeat it enough, the heavy users will likely never own a Bev or make up an extraordinarily small percentage of owners like they do now.

Now if they did then you might need upgrades but hopefully the inconvenience keeps those folks on ice
 
Last edited:
I think what your missing is how far do people/cars really drive in a good non-covid year?

This source (below) isn’t political they mearly keep metrics of how far / long people drive for highway usage and non-EV purposes.


This data is from a time when people drove a lot more than they do now.

In effect 95% of road miles are driven by 0.2% of the population

The vast majority of EVs are currently owned by people who have short commutes and don’t go on car trips much. Based on Wisdots survey of the 3000bev owners registered they only averaged a little over 3000 miles per year.
But overwhelming most cars on the road don’t drive that much.

To condense what is written
78% of drivers average under 40 miles per day including all road trips (which may or may not involve their own car)

The lower 68% of cars average under 7.2 miles a day.
The lower 64% of people drive 4 or less days of the week.

So why does the distance the potential EV owners drive matter?

Because erring to the high end if 50% of cars were BEV they would only use about 2kwhrs per day of juice each.

Given this

That is only about 3% more electricity for residential use and a rounding error if we include industrial.

Even if the large majority of people that don’t drive far were to use lots more electricity and drive a lot further it’s still not going to affect much, after all this isn’t Japan were your mains is only 2000 watts and an extra microwave needs a grid upgrade.

And I can’t repeat it enough, the heavy users will likely never own a Bev or make up an extraordinarily small percentage of owners like they do now.

Now if they did then you might need upgrades but hopefully the inconvenience keeps those folks on ice
Nice post and that PDF is interesting. My wife falls into the 15% category and we seriously considered an EV this year only reason we did not buy one is occasionally she has to drive to Miami and we had range anxiety. We were going to get the hybrid Cayenne but they were delayed at the time so we passed. I fall into my own category :) I put 80k miles on my truck in 24 months, even with the covid lockdown when my truck sat for 3 months.
 
That document is looking only at commuting miles and is from 2003. You have to look at the combined driving stats to have a real picture of what's going on. Three Google searches and the back of an envelope's worth of math blows away the claim that we can electrify half of the US auto fleet.

Americans consumed about 140 billion gallons of gasoline per year and drove over 3.2 trillion miles in 2017. (Over the road trucks were only 140 billion of those miles.) A typical EV goes about 3 to 4 miles per kWh. US total electricity generation for 2020 is 4,127 billion kWh. Do the math... we would need to double electricity generation to power 50% of road miles with grid supplied power.
 
Americans consumed about 140 billion gallons of gasoline per year and drove over 3.2 trillion miles in 2017. (Over the road trucks were only 140 billion of those miles.) A typical EV goes about 3 to 4 miles per kWh. US total electricity generation for 2020 is 4,127 billion kWh. Do the math... we would need to double electricity generation to power 50% of road miles with grid supplied power.

Hogwash
The miles per person looks like a reverse bell curve, per the government there is at least one crackhead driving 1000+ miles a day which invalidates all your assumptions about this topic

Anyway
if you include trips and leasure 78% of Americans average under 40 miles a day

This number is moderately meaningless due to the problems of very uneven distribution and the fact most people divide their miles over multiple vehicles.
(Aka no one drives the average miles, usually way below or way above)

The lower 50% of the driving population goes under 20 miles per day averaged out including trips. (See chart)
20 miles of city or traffic = 4kwhrs (or less)
Only winter coupled with high speeds approach 3miles/kwhr which is mainly an EPA creation

Note that the number of miles driven by private cars goes down every year, only 60% of petroleum is used privately (and going down every year) sadly that 60% also includes home fuel oil which once removed shrinks the number further.

Understand that many people do not drive the same car on road trips that they commute with
each person owns on average 2.28 cars
And a full third of Americans have driven a rental car at least once this year.

This is important because the EV is unlikely to be the 3000 mile Grand Canyon round trip vehicle that drives up annual miles travelled.
It’s also unlikely to be an EV rental except under very specific circumstances.

In my case my daily activities add up to 3500 plug in miles a year (pre covid) but I normally drive 1-2 3000-4000 mile trips each year.
I own an old plug in, do you think I take that on the long trips?

Your argument to ignore commuting distances ignores that most folks won’t take a BEV on long vacation trips anyway and will instead use it in the way the previous linked chart prescribed.

Remember also that commuting distances have DECREASED since 2003.
 

Attachments

  • BEECE22B-98B9-4835-AE42-2D392C682DD7.jpeg
    BEECE22B-98B9-4835-AE42-2D392C682DD7.jpeg
    121.9 KB · Views: 11
  • 16244203-80C2-4C30-8FC2-D6151A1C0680.png
    16244203-80C2-4C30-8FC2-D6151A1C0680.png
    155.6 KB · Views: 10
  • B9EEA507-B84B-4FA1-B6F6-0316B2C484C4.png
    B9EEA507-B84B-4FA1-B6F6-0316B2C484C4.png
    378 KB · Views: 9
Last edited:
We're talking past each other. I'm saying we don't have enough electrical generation capacity to replace a significant percentage of over the road gasoline and diesel consumed in the US on a per gallon basis. Transportation consumes multiples more, in terms of BTU's, than all electricity consumed for other purposes.

I'm not arguing that EVs are impractical for a lot of people. They are. We just simply do not have the electrical generation capacity to replace very many ICVs with them.
 
Last edited:
Don't laugh, sheeple actually believe that because they are smart. ( Stage 5 Dunning-Kruger)
people liking such a silly comment are pretty clearly showing their own cognitive biases...

No one with opposable thumbs believes this, even if it's a pithy line.

Having emissions centralized and away from densely populated areas has its own advantages in terms of capturing emissions and lessening the impacts of them. And, as the author points out in the article, Japan as a country has some very unique challenges with its power production. The went chips in on nuclear and then cut bait after Fukushima.

"Where you get your power from" is obviously dependent on where you live.
 
Toyota and Mazda are going to give the consumers a range of choices. Battery only, battery with range extender and hybrid.

I believe the smarter heads realize that the infrastructure is not ready to go whole hog on EVs and in large countries like the US, range is important.
 
Toyota just announced a push towards more ev’s in the next couple years, didn’t they? Others are probably “sweating bullets.” It’s an interesting company, they still use nickel metal batteries in cars like the RAV4 hybrid.
 
"Musk also noted to his German audience that he did not oppose nuclear energy and went so far as to suggest it might even be necessary if we’re to meet tomorrow’s need for electricity — which he said would double by 2040."
 
Back
Top