The Future Of Oil, And The Revalance Of Synthetic

Joined
Dec 9, 2013
Messages
3,083
Location
Alabama, United States
Hi all. It's been a while since I've posted here, as I found it more proper to lurk and read than blindly posting. Let's discuss the next thirty years of motor oil, and how the face of it may or may not change. I'll begin by lending my prediction, and then you lend yours, opening up threads for discussion. Alright, here is how I see it. With the current production of GTL base stocks, and the possibility that oil companies may be putting some of it into "conventional" oils, I don't see the "synthetic" marque holding it's relevancy in the future. If, again, if higher end base stocks continue being used in conventional oil production, what purpose will oils such as Valvoline Synpower, QS Ultimate Durability, and Castrol Edge with Syntec have? I look at it this way. Oils currently labeled as conventional and synthetic blend (i.e. QSGB, PYB, Phillips TA, MS5K) can do what Castrol Edge w/ Syntec, QSUD, VSP, Havoline Synthetic, Mobil Super Synthetic, and the like can do. The only oils that really seem to establish a solid difference between conventional and synthetic are Mobil 1 EP, Castrol Edge EP, Pennzoil Platinum PP, Pennzoil Ultra Platinum, and boutique oils from Amsoil and Redline. Also on this note, what purpose will dexos1 spec semi synths have when conventionals come to meet and exceed the spec. All in all, it seems that oil will in some ways revert, in the sense that there will be full synthetic and not full synthetic oils. The conventionals will become stringent cert passing, high end synthetic blends with no fancy "full synthetic" labels, and true full, PAO based syntheics will once again dominate the "synthetic" market. Again, this is my opinion. I'm not looking to violently argue with anyone, just observe various opinions. I'd really prefer that no one takes this thread to [censored] like many do, and hopefully we can all be adults and healthily discuss this subject. I could have this whole thing wrong, and at worst I'll learn something new.
 
Joined
Aug 14, 2010
Messages
12,966
Location
Northern Kentucky
The oil companies will continue to offer multiple levels of products with varying degrees of potency to get as much business as possible. Pennzoil ultra has a much stronger additive package than PYB and PP is in the middle. The additive package is important to the cost also.
 

MolaKule

Staff member
Joined
Jun 5, 2002
Messages
22,365
Location
Iowegia - USA
I think you have to examine the metallurgy involved along with the progression of base oils, etc. As far as liquid lubrication, I think base oils like Oil Soluble PAG's (OSP), Ionic Liquids, ester polymers, and perflouroethane polymers might see some light in terms of production verses lower cost. Then the next stage I think will see more DLC and or Titanium alloy coatings and the such like with even lower viscosity oils. The next stage may be special ceramic engine blocks and rings without the need for any liquid lubricant.
 
Joined
May 20, 2014
Messages
1,429
Location
quebec canada
In the short term it might look that way,but long term?material like grapheme will enable car maker to get where they plan to ,so no synthetic will be needed if car maker keep being asked lower viscosity etc
 
Joined
Jan 24, 2008
Messages
824
Location
TX
I wouldn't be surprised if the internal combustion engine becomes obsolete in 30 years. Most all cars will be hybrids in the next 20 years with lifetime oil and sealed crankcases.
 
Joined
Nov 11, 2010
Messages
9,783
Location
Saskatoon canada
Originally Posted By: yvon_la
In the short term it might look that way,but long term?material like grapheme will enable car maker to get where they plan to ,so no synthetic will be needed if car maker keep being asked lower viscosity etc
More of this graphene nonsense. It's getting old bud. And so is lack of capitalization and punctuation. If you expect to be taken seriously please post so people can read and comprehend. I'm intrigued molekule about lubricant free engines. Well rings and bores anyways. Is there anywhere I can read about them. I agree that metalugy will dictate lubricant needs and as technology improves making quality base oils less costly better lubricants will emerge. I disagree about pao becoming used large scale again. In fact I see it's demise. Too costly. Especially when esters are either par for cost and becoming cheaper as refinement costs go down. Gtl is the wave of the future. Pao performance for the cost of crude. No brainer Just spitballing here.
 
Joined
Nov 18, 2005
Messages
10,146
Location
Burlington, Ontario, Canada
The direction lead motor oils will take originates with the OEM auto manufacturers and their lubricant partners. The trend to specific OEM requirements that goes beyond API, ILSAC and ACEA will likely continue. The move to lighter more fuel efficient oils will also continue. We have already seen this trend with the move to the 0W-20 grade and the soon to be available 0W-16 grade. One interesting development regarding a number of OEM 0W-20 oils which have a unique formulation is that for the most part the aftermarket oil formulators have chosen not to emulate them likely for cost reasons and because the Japanese OEMs have have no specific demands other than the aftermarket oil be API approved of the correct SAE grade.
 
Joined
Mar 3, 2011
Messages
1,919
Location
California's Central Coast Wine Country
Originally Posted By: CATERHAM
One interesting development regarding a number of OEM 0W-20 oils which have a unique formulation is that for the most part the aftermarket oil formulators have chosen not to emulate them likely for cost reasons and because the Japanese OEMs have have no specific demands other than the aftermarket oil be API approved of the correct SAE grade.
Caterham: What do the OEM 0W-20s specify that the aftermarket 0W-20s do not? Serious question. Scott
 

Red91

Thread starter
Joined
Dec 9, 2013
Messages
3,083
Location
Alabama, United States
Interesting points of view. Now let me add to it with two questions: 1. Will we see 0W-20, 30, and 40 conventional oils? Since 0W-20 can be had as a blend, it seems that conventional 0w oils could be very possible. 2. Could we see dual rated (i.e. spark ignition/compression ignition)conventional oils that meet all current and past specs? Example: One day will I walk into a store and be able to buy Quaker State/Havoline/Pennzoil, etc.5w-30 that can be used in anything from a 2015 F- Series Diesel Super Duty to a Toyota Corolla. I suppose what I'm hitting at is, will the PCMO and HDEO market merge into one, where Rotella, Delo, and Delvac are virtually the same as QS, Havoline, Castrol, and Valvoline, in the sense that none of the brands are really "Heavy Duty" or only intended for certain specs.
 
Joined
Aug 2, 2014
Messages
1,468
Location
Gulf Coast, MS
In 30 years the oil company's will turn into razor company's and advertise like them. They will offer magical swivel handles so people can pour oil easier. I laughter at that flexball idea. Got into a small argument with someone over it. They said it really works. I disagreed and said it doesn't all it does is give you less control. The only people who will even need a flex head are people born without wrists.
 
Joined
Nov 18, 2005
Messages
10,146
Location
Burlington, Ontario, Canada
Originally Posted By: SLO_Town
Originally Posted By: CATERHAM
One interesting development regarding a number of OEM 0W-20 oils which have a unique formulation is that for the most part the aftermarket oil formulators have chosen not to emulate them likely for cost reasons and because the Japanese OEMs have have no specific demands other than the aftermarket oil be API approved of the correct SAE grade.
Caterham: What do the OEM 0W-20s specify that the aftermarket 0W-20s do not? Serious question. Scott
Primarily they are much lighter on start-up and secondarily have higher AW additive levels.
 
Joined
Nov 18, 2005
Messages
10,146
Location
Burlington, Ontario, Canada
Originally Posted By: Red91
Interesting points of view. Now let me add to it with two questions: 1. Will we see 0W-20, 30, and 40 conventional oils? Since 0W-20 can be had as a blend, it seems that conventional 0w oils could be very possible. 2. Could we see dual rated (i.e. spark ignition/compression ignition)conventional oils that meet all current and past specs? Example: One day will I walk into a store and be able to buy Quaker State/Havoline/Pennzoil, etc.5w-30 that can be used in anything from a 2015 F- Series Diesel Super Duty to a Toyota Corolla. I suppose what I'm hitting at is, will the PCMO and HDEO market merge into one, where Rotella, Delo, and Delvac are virtually the same as QS, Havoline, Castrol, and Valvoline, in the sense that none of the brands are really "Heavy Duty" or only intended for certain specs.
1. No. Mineral oils will continue to play a lesser role in the future. That said, synthetic and conventional are just marketing terms. As performance demands increase so with the need to use more "synthetic" oils to formulate so called conventional products. 2. We already have dual rated universal oils but the varying demands of both engine types makes such a oil a compromise so that it's not best for either engine type.
 
Joined
Feb 11, 2014
Messages
1,869
Location
Texas
Oil companies will keep offering many levels of products in order to make as much money as they can They will not do anything as far as consolidating products in order to help the consumer In other words,the same as now
 
Joined
Mar 3, 2011
Messages
1,919
Location
California's Central Coast Wine Country
Originally Posted By: CATERHAM
Originally Posted By: SLO_Town
Originally Posted By: CATERHAM
One interesting development regarding a number of OEM 0W-20 oils which have a unique formulation is that for the most part the aftermarket oil formulators have chosen not to emulate them likely for cost reasons and because the Japanese OEMs have have no specific demands other than the aftermarket oil be API approved of the correct SAE grade.
Caterham: What do the OEM 0W-20s specify that the aftermarket 0W-20s do not? Serious question. Scott
Primarily they are much lighter on start-up and secondarily have higher AW additive levels.
Thanks, Scott
 
Joined
Dec 26, 2005
Messages
19,284
Location
Upper Midwest
Why is consolidating products so important, and how is it nefarious when for all practical purposes the price is the same? I can see your complaint if it were the case that there were wide price differentials between brands, and the manufacturers exploited them with a confusing array of products. But that's not the case, the prices between varieties of similar oil types is pretty consistent.
Originally Posted By: Dallas69
Oil companies will keep offering many levels of products in order to make as much money as they can. They will not do anything as far as consolidating products in order to help the consumer. In other words,the same as now
 
Joined
Nov 28, 2008
Messages
1,007
Location
Oklahoma
Originally Posted By: maximus
I wouldn't be surprised if the internal combustion engine becomes obsolete in 30 years. Most all cars will be hybrids in the next 20 years with lifetime oil and sealed crankcases.
My thoughts exactly... As we slowly move towards electric and other more efficient power plants, the need for oil in normal passenger vehicles will gradually diminish.
 
Joined
Nov 18, 2005
Messages
10,146
Location
Burlington, Ontario, Canada
Originally Posted By: maximus
I wouldn't be surprised if the internal combustion engine becomes obsolete in 30 years. Most all cars will be hybrids in the next 20 years with lifetime oil and sealed crankcases.
The IC engine becoming obsolete in 30 years isn't going to happen. You need just look at the progress that's been made in the past 30 years and it's been marginal. It will still be the main power source with continued fuel economy gains. And if gasoline becomes too expensive CNG could easily step in to fill its role. Unless there is a major technological break through with batteries and fuel cells in terms of cost and range the IC engine will be with us for the foreseeable future.
 
Joined
Jul 29, 2008
Messages
1,088
Location
RHODE ISLAND
Originally Posted By: maximus
I wouldn't be surprised if the internal combustion engine becomes obsolete in 30 years. Most all cars will be hybrids in the next 20 years with lifetime oil and sealed crankcases.
I got news for you! Big oil & the internal combustion engine are both going no where soon in your life time & mine! I'm 49! Both will be around long after I'm toes up!
 
Last edited:
Joined
Jan 24, 2008
Messages
824
Location
TX
Originally Posted By: CATERHAM
Originally Posted By: maximus
I wouldn't be surprised if the internal combustion engine becomes obsolete in 30 years. Most all cars will be hybrids in the next 20 years with lifetime oil and sealed crankcases.
You need just look at the progress that's been made in the past 30 years and it's been marginal.
Really?? I disagree. 200hp out of NA 4 cylinder engines. 30mpg V8s 850 ft/lbs in a mass production diesel pickup. The hellcat makes 700 Hp out of the box. That kinda power was almost unheard of 30 years ago even for a super car.
 
Joined
Nov 18, 2005
Messages
10,146
Location
Burlington, Ontario, Canada
Those are very modest performance gains in 30 years and anything but revolutionary. The 1985 Porsche 928S had EFI, a 32 valve , 4 cam V8 plus ABS that could cruise all day at 150 mph. And get 26 mpg when driven normally. But we don't really disagree. The IC engine will continue to be the predominate power source in he next 30 years.
 
Top