Still a lot of flowing USD everywhere

[GON]

I am back to traveling extensively for work. On the road five days, then return home for two days doing reports, write-ups, etc. Things should slow down in October for work- at least, I hope. I will leave for my desk at 6am this morning, work until 9am, take my Wife to church, and then back at work from 1230 until I finish, hopefully before 6pm this evening. Then back on a flight tomorrow morning for the week. Not complaining, I am glad to be working and contributing.

I typically cook for my Wife on weekends. Since I am now working weekends, I decided to take my Wife out to dinner last night. We live in area with ample quantities of upscale restaurants within 35 miles of our home. I was unable to secure a reservation anywhere, not a single restaurant, every single establishment was booked. I ended up cooking, with steaks from COSTCO, which took about 30 minutes waiting in line to check out.

While traveling, the airports have never been fuller. The fullness is not because of surge of business travelers, it is leisure travelers. I am a member of a few airline lounges, like American Airlines Admirals Club. The Admirals Club in terminal B is my little secret hideaway at DFW to get a cup of coffee and get some work done between flights. On Friday at 11am, every single seat was taken. Jam packed. I then went to the Admirals club in terminal D, and found a seat, but D club should be slow at 11am, it was near capacity and only had a few seats open.

The very pricey airport restaurants and bars have long lines to get served, day or night. I can't justify/ afford eating at the airport, especially in the pricey restaurants at the airport. But lines go into the airport terminal for people wanting a seat.

I know the cost of most things has increased double digits over the past year. My casual observation is consumers are spending crazy, and spending on wants- not needs. Must still be a whole lot of USD in consumers hands....

If a recession is coming- it has not hit the consumer as of yesterday.

 

[JustinH]

Yep we fly back to WNY or Florida to see some family 2-3x per year. Been alternating between flying out of AUS or SAT. My guage for airport traffic is amount of free seats at the various bars.

No free seats to be had, at probably ten different bars in the terminal at AUS.

 

[SC Maintenance]

Sounds pretty much like 2006 / 2007 all over again. Couldn't find a hotel, every restaurant full all the time.

Even though the checks aren't being mailed out, there is still an absolute ton of stimulus money out there, its in the hands of states, cities and school boards and its making it into the economy the old fashioned way as they spend it. Also personal savings were way up during the pandemic, not to mention some people use there home equity as a bank.

We live in a boom / bust economy. Nothing has changed. The only unknown is the timing.

 

[Passport1]

Lots of Potempkin towns around the US. Average middle to lower middle-class Americans are not making it. They aren't the kind likely to be the que at the airport bar.

The Jamaicans have an expression that covers this; 'Don' believe the hype mon'.

 

[wpod]

The credit cards aren't maxed out yet.

 

[53' Stude]

Sounds pretty much like 2006 / 2007 all over again. Couldn't find a hotel, every restaurant full all the time.

Even though the checks aren't being mailed out, there is still an absolute ton of stimulus money out there, its in the hands of states, cities and school boards and its making it into the economy the old fashioned way as they spend it. Also personal savings were way up during the pandemic, not to mention some people use there home equity as a bank.

We live in a boom / bust economy. Nothing has changed. The only unknown is the timing.

I spend on what I need not wants.
Speaking of stimulus money; I never got my 3rd one. Talked to IRS, they say they sent it to me but I never got it. They are correcting it now so I will get it very soon

 

[wpod]

Lots of Potempkin towns around the US. Average middle to lower middle-class Americans are not making it. They aren't the kind likely to be the que at the airport bar.

The Jamaicans have an expression that covers this; 'Don' believe the hype mon'.

The average middle lower middle class usually are living beyond their means. I certainly am.

 

[LazyDog]

The one thing that may be we are missing is that Covid change the mental part of what we used to consider normal life.

Covid show us how fragile life really is and to be doing a job or something just for little money stop making sense.

 

[pbm]

I have found the opposite to be true. Restaurants that used to have 1/2 hour wait times are now half empty. Prices on the menu have gone up and I recently noticed portion size shrinking in our favorite Mexican restaurant...another thing I notice is many restaurants are now charging a fee to use a credit card. I'm wondering if we are being gas lighted before the election because I certainly feel the recent lower gas prices won't last long after November.

 

[jeepman3071]

The credit cards aren't maxed out yet.

This. On the other hand, car repossessions are going way up. The stats are quite interesting.

 

[wpod]

This. On the other hand, car repossessions are going way up. The stats are quite interesting.

About 3 years Ago I would help my friend pocking up food 2 days a week for a food bank . It was fun and I did it for a little more than a year. One Saturday I went to watch the food given out. Most of the people had nicer vehicles than I did , smoked or were tatted up and dressed nicely. I stopped helping at the food bank.

 

[GON]

About 3 years Ago I would help my friend pocking up food 2 days a week for a food bank . It was fun and I did it for a little more than a year. One Saturday I went to watch the food given out. Most of the people had nicer vehicles than I did , smoked or were tatted up and dressed nicely. I stopped helping at the food bank.

When I lived in Phoenix, I took a weekend adult education course that was held in a strip mall.

During breaks, I went to the parking lot. A few storefronts down, I kept seeing young, very healthy looking adults come in and out of a store. The store was some kind of health/ medical store. I was wondering what they were selling as the people coming in and out of the store looked so young and healthy.

I walked down to the storefront and could not figure out the service the store was providing, primarily to a young adult customer base. Later that evening I googles the store. The store was selling medical marijuana.

Guess that stuff must work amazing well, as all these young adults looked super healthy. Today the establishments selling medical weed have big signs out front. In 2012, in Arizona the establishments selling the stuff kept a very discreet storefront.

 

[UncleDave]

Dollars trading outside the US are something like 7-10X greater than in.

Raising the rates the way we have brings about triffins paradox where the home of the reserve currency has different needs than others trading in it.

It's also an incredible "Flex" on the world scene, stressing our global competition in ways a military move cannot.

 

[GON]

Dollars trading outside the US are something like 7-10X greater than in.

Raising the rates the way we have brings about triffins paradox where the home of the reserve currency has different needs than others trading in it.

It's also an incredible "Flex" on the world scene, stressing our global competition in ways a military move cannot.

UD,

Nice post- but I can't comprehend what you hypothesis is.

 

[brianl703]

I know the cost of most things has increased double digits over the past year. My casual observation is consumers are spending crazy, and spending on wants- not needs. Must still be a whole lot of USD in consumers hands....

The magic of credit:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/08/02/credit-card-debt-inflation/

 

[UncleDave]

UD,

Nice post- but I can't comprehend what you hypothesis is.

Check out the triffin paradox/dilemma/connudrum.

 

[Wrenchturner44]

I spend on what I need not wants.
Speaking of stimulus money; I never got my 3rd one. Talked to IRS, they say they sent it to me but I never got it. They are correcting it now so I will get it very soon

Don't worry, I never got my first, second or third.....LOL.

 

[alarmguy]

Life has never been more easy than now in the USA, we got lucky last night for dinner but we experience much the same as the OP if we leave for dinner later than 5:15 PM on weekends and we have a HUGE amount of restaurants here but you will wait forever if you go out to dinner a normal time.

 

[joekingcorvette]

I am back to traveling extensively for work. On the road five days, then return home for two days doing reports, write-ups, etc. Things should slow down in October for work- at least, I hope. I will leave for my desk at 6am this morning, work until 9am, take my Wife to church, and then back at work from 1230 until I finish, hopefully before 6pm this evening. Then back on a flight tomorrow morning for the week. Not complaining, I am glad to be working and contributing.

I typically cook for my Wife on weekends. Since I am now working weekends, I decided to take my Wife out to dinner last night. We live in area with ample quantities of upscale restaurants within 35 miles of our home. I was unable to secure a reservation anywhere, not a single restaurant, every single establishment was booked. I ended up cooking, with steaks from COSTCO, which took about 30 minutes waiting in line to check out.

While traveling, the airports have never been fuller. The fullness is not because of surge of business travelers, it is leisure travelers. I am a member of a few airline lounges, like American Airlines Admirals Club. The Admirals Club in terminal B is my little secret hideaway at DFW to get a cup of coffee and get some work done between flights. On Friday at 11am, every single seat was taken. Jam packed. I then went to the Admirals club in terminal D, and found a seat, but D club should be slow at 11am, it was near capacity and only had a few seats open.

The very pricey airport restaurants and bars have long lines to get served, day or night. I can't justify/ afford eating at the airport, especially in the pricey restaurants at the airport. But lines go into the airport terminal for people wanting a seat.

I know the cost of most things has increased double digits over the past year. My casual observation is consumers are spending crazy, and spending on wants- not needs. Must still be a whole lot of USD in consumers hands....

If a recession is coming- it has not hit the consumer as of yesterday.

A recession has hit most consumers. Sure there are lots of people in Costco but most of them are middle to upper class. If you go to many schools in more poor areas you can see people are having problems making ends meet. It's easy to go to a higher class restaurant or airport and see people with extra money for leisure however it is not everyone. The stock market is proof that things are not quite up to par. Many people think we are in a recession right now no matter what yahoo finance reports. Home, car, gas, and groceries are through the roof right now and most of the good jobs are not available. Some companies are laying off people. Sure there are lots of jobs available if you want to work nights, weekends, holidays etc. and work for low wages. I do not see long lines in restaurants however I do agree people have money to spend on vacations but many people will go on one vacation instead of three vacations. Plus the population in the US keeps growing. Lots of poor people around in most cities and small towns in the US. Lot's of people with money too.

 

[fsdork]

The one thing that may be we are missing is that Covid change the mental part of what we used to consider normal life.

Covid show us how fragile life really is and to be doing a job or something just for little money stop making sense.

It starts to make sense again when people push their finances to the brink, and have to decide if they would rather live in a homeless camp or go back to working at a job they don't care for. I get working to live vs. living to work, but I don't get how people see opting out of the whole system as an option.