Originally Posted by JOD
Originally Posted by Cdn17Sport6MT
I can see myself buying a cheap full-electric for use in the city. I think we will be shamed into doing this, depending on where you live. I live in the hub of this, in Canada... Canada's Wet, Left coastal city of Vancouver.
However, they will have to drag my enthusiast ICE cars and motorcycle out of my cold, dead hands.
I really celebrate the art and skill of driving.
Well, that's the thing. Eventually, you're going to die, and prying won't be so difficult at that point. Me too! And so will move of the people who are going to respond to my post to tell me how wrong I am...
Yes, younger car enthusiasts wedded to the ICE are out there, but they're not nearly large enough in number to keep ICE production above anything meaningful. The auto industry relies on scale--which is what really makes Tesla's very existence completely shocking. When production of ICE significantly drops, the sub suppliers are not going to be able to keep the doors open. Eventually, you'll have expensive bespoke engines produced for rich enthusiasts, and that's pretty much going to be it. I think we have to realize that the number of people who really car about cars is actually pretty small, and those that really car about the ICE are an even smaller number. Most people just want to get where they're going as conveniently as possible.
Originally Posted by JeffKeryk
I would not count out the Germans.
The German government will certainly help; they prioritize high employment.
Perhaps a BMW Mercedes alliance makes sense, as the article alluded to.
The Germans have a formidible automobile history and engineering.
I am surprised they haven't built a better competitor to the Tesla Model 3 which is the market leader by far.
Model 3 Sales in Germany
Quite frankly, I think that's the problem. I mean, Kodak made great cameras, and was a pioneer in digital photography in the 70's! And yet.... Germany's auto industry is predicated upon building great cars. The companies that are going to win 50 years from now are focusing on building mobility solutions, and while there's some overlap, they're really not the same thing. Companies that are newer to the game, like BYD and Tesla fully understand this reality, while companies in Germany are still primarily focused on next year's labor contracts. Out of all of the companies in Germany, it seems VW is the only one that is really going to be in a position to compete.
To your very point, none of the German companies have built a better Model 3 for one very simple reason: they can't! The reasons why are laid out pretty well in that article you linked. Lots of navel gazing chasing unattainable goals with diesel. When you spend 2 decades trying to build a better mousetrap, and new companies come in with a different perspective, this is one of the potential results. I mean, right now they're looking at how to build good electric cars. BYD and Didi are looking at owning the car share and mobility space. I'm just not sure the mindset is there to truly be competitive in what the market will be in 40 years.
Time will tell, but I think the general conclusion of the article is right: most of the companies will either end up being suppliers to more forward-thinking companies, or they'll whither and die.
I know I'm a broken record but Tesla investors still don't demand that it becomes profitable. They just don't care. That's a huge difference. 15 yrs and not one year in the black.
