Peter Schiff's predictions

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He really needs to get with the program. The elephant is supposed to be invisible. and he happens to have done a better job than just about anyone else of forecasting in 2006 and early 2007 what was about to happen in U.S. financial markets. This wasn't a broken-clock-is-right-twice-a-day thing: Schiff appeared on the national scene just as the credit bubble was reaching maximum inflation and offered a critique of the nation's unsustainably debt-fueled economic trajectory that is now--after the fact--widely accepted. I personally think he was late into the revelation. If he'd listened to me, he would have probably lost money. He opened his mouth when it suited him. If a boorish simpleton like myself (remember the guy everyone here called "Chicken Little") could read the writing on the wall, I'm sure a master of finance could too. No, the main issue with Schiff seems to be that he hasn't changed his tune--and it isn't a pleasant tune to listen to. He thinks the "phony economy" of the U.S. is headed for even harder times. Well, I see that I'm in good company ..even if I showed up to the party before the celebrities arrived and declared it. I usually run into two basic classifications of people (not "class", per se~ ..just divisions) What are you talking about? Why are you talking about it? SHHH!!!
 

buster

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Schiff usually doesn't credit himself as being the best at pin pointing the timing of specific economic down turns. I don't necessarily think his prediction was all that "amazing". What I do like about Schiff is his general view on economics, more specifically monetary policy, government intervention (Keynesian economics) etc. His view of history and the Great Depression are different than most in mainstream academia. Therefore he is often branded as a "radical" by the mainstream media. He is too "doom and gloom" for most people. Extremely pessimistic about the future of this country.
 
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I see that the second video had that pure genius of supply side economics ...Arthur Laffer ..of the Laffing curve. I've seen his keen insight evidenced a couple of times.
 
 Originally Posted By: buster
Schiff usually doesn't credit himself as being the best at pin pointing the timing of specific economic down turns. I don't necessarily think his prediction was all that "amazing". What I do like about Schiff is his general view on economics, more specifically monetary policy, government intervention (Keynesian economics) etc. His view of history and the Great Depression are different than most in mainstream academia. Therefore he is often branded as a "radical" by the mainstream media. He is too "doom and gloom" for most people. Extremely pessimistic about the future of this country.
That's because the elected government officials tend to kick the can down the road. It's hard to predict when the can will hit a wall.
 
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 Originally Posted By: Tempest
 Originally Posted By: Ben99GT
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZyvnWFbR84&feature=related http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gL8BzZnWRX4&feature=related
He wasn't right just as a shot in the dark, his rationale is exactly what caused the problem.
What? Just because he made a laffing stock of Arthur Laffer?? You've never heard of propaganda? That's all those others were providing. You just can't see who the war was against.
 
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 Originally Posted By: buster
Schiff usually doesn't credit himself as being the best at pin pointing the timing of specific economic down turns. I don't necessarily think his prediction was all that "amazing". What I do like about Schiff is his general view on economics, more specifically monetary policy, government intervention (Keynesian economics) etc. His view of history and the Great Depression are different than most in mainstream academia. Therefore he is often branded as a "radical" by the mainstream media. He is too "doom and gloom" for most people. Extremely pessimistic about the future of this country.
Problem is timing is everything when making predictions of the sort he is making. Anybody can predict big events, but very few people can predict when. For example, I am 100% sure the U.S. dollar will not be the global currency sometime in the future. But that prediction is useless to me if I can't get the timing right. Betting against the dollar in the near term may or may not be smart. Schiff got the timing right on a few things in 2006/2007 but his recent gold/commodity calls have been disasters.
 
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 Quote:
Problem is timing is everything when making predictions of the sort he is making.
No, it's not. The problem is participating and perpetuating a mechanism where the physics of it are clearly flawed and assuredly DOOMED. Why did we hit an iceberg? Oh ..that..well it was the most profitable way to travel for the first half of the trip. I see. (my apologies for feeling the need to say this= honestly)
 
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Gary, From an investment perspective (Schiff sells investment advice), timing IS everything. This is why I said "for the sorts of predictions, he's making..." Honesty, would be to let people know that they should not follow his recommendations if he "doesn't always get the timing right." Now if you are talking about policy makers and people who run the system, then that is a different story. Then the trajectory is everything and not the timing.
 
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I see your point. While I think he was late to the real party crash announcement, he did sensibly look for a secure chair before the music stopped. In the final analysis, he was looking at maximum avoided losses ..while others were looking for maximum gains before the house of card collapsed. I understand this too. We're always going to be in a quench and purge scenario. It's merely the peak vs. the valley depth and or/duration. We had a protracted positive cycle ..so we're going to have either a deeper or protracted negative cycle (probably both). Our current tinkering, as was pointed out with examples from TGD, will typically lengthen recovery. This totally makes sense since it's offsetting the liabilities of the purge ..so a longer, but less steep, slope will be the sensible outcome of such actions.
 
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