Old man thought- never in my adult lifetime has there been a better time to start a manufacturing business in the USA

[CKN]

How accurate is the 2% ?

Well.....based on every store front, just about every business, and any manufacturing business you drive by having signs or balloons, and banners saying "we are hiring" I'd say it's pretty accurate.

There are currently about 1,690,000 jobs in Utah with 37,300 Utahns unemployed, and October's seasonally-adjusted unemployment remains unchanged at 2.1%.

Utah's economy stays strong amid national decline

Utah's economy and labor supply is performing strongly due to its growing population compared to the national average of decline, a state economist said. Utah's unemployment rate for October is 2.1%.

www.ksl.com

I maintain that many products shortages are the result of lack of employees/materials and not some dark underlying plot to limit product to drive up the cost.

 

[PontiacHO]

The government employee bit gets old... As a government employee, I am tired of it. I work HARD for the money and benefits I earn, as does my team. I choose to be a government employee for multiple reasons - reasonable pay, good benefits, and work life balance, as well as enjoying being a public servant...

Guess I'll remember my job is easy, since its not law enforcement but is government, next time I'm working in moving traffic overnights in cruddy weather...

Right there with you. Always worked under the threat of Fleet privatization, less than adequate staff, limited budgets, aging unreliable Fleet, and the unrealistic expectations that law enforcement and medic had no less than 95% fleet availability. Justifying our existence was an annual review of our services, costs, and budgetary management compared with Private fleet service providers that low ball the numbers to get their foot in the door. Hard work with the proverbial guillotine over our heads. It aged me quickly….

 

[Pablo]

The regs for employing people if you can actually find people to work will kill you.

I'm out.

A young driven person could do it. We need to make it easy like starting a biz in China.

 

[John105]

Times have changed. I was at the supermarket and I saw a HS girl get upset: "This is bull****. I'm not working for seventeen." It made me pause, I did work for minimum wage at age 18, the equivalent of $9.11/hour in 2022. At the time, it would have taken maybe 75-90 minutes of work, to buy a meal at Wendy's. I told myself one day I'll be able to buy that meal with the drink and fries, and have more money left from an hour's pay. That kid who doesn't like $17 will never experience that. In a way it's good, in a way it's bad. Think about it, how many in our everyday life even know what driving a 37 month old car is like?

 

[Vil_Riker]

Think about it, how many in our everyday life even know what driving a 37 month old car is like?

What do you mean - What's wrong with driving a new car?

 

[GON]

Any donut shop I've ever been to has them made that morning.

There's an old Dunkin' Donuts ad about the guy waking up up talking about time to make the donuts.

I never understood how a business could exist on a lone product like a glazed doughnut, but I certainly missed the boat on Krispy Creme.

UD,

Unfortunately DD are made is some factory somewhere in America, frozen, then shipped days/weeks/months later to DD stores. The donuts are thawed out, then placed on the rack. Being in CA, yes one also gets same day made donuts with little efffort to find. That is not the same for many places, even big places in the USA.

There is a fascinating movie about a guy who made many, many millions opening donut shops in CA, and then leasing the shop to immigrants from Southern Asia. He ended up losing his many millions in Las Vegas.

 

[John105]

Right there with you. Always worked under the threat of Fleet privatization, less than adequate staff, limited budgets, aging unreliable Fleet, and the unrealistic expectations that law enforcement and medic had no less than 95% fleet availability. Justifying our existence was an annual review of our services, costs, and budgetary management compared with Private fleet service providers that low ball the numbers to get their foot in the door. Hard work with the proverbial guillotine over our heads. It aged me quickly….

having a guillotine over your head is no good. Those who do that to others, I wonder what justification they give to themselves, other than someone else is doing it to them?

 

[PandaBear]

It's always a good time if you have a competitive advantage over others and you are good at what you are doing. Sometimes it is not a choice, you have to start your own when you are laid off. My dad switched career into real estate agency after he was laid off as a machinist. It was a blessing in disguise, not always rosy and he had to move in with his mother in law for a couple years, but in the end it works out.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Just in time manufacturing works great until it doesn't. Cue Monty Python: "Nobody expected supply chain disruptions!"

That's true of just about everything, right?
In a manufacturing company, materials procurement is the biggest cost and biggest headache maker. One part can stop the line.

 

[PandaBear]

So we are currently in a time of massive over-consumption where demand is outpacing supply and inflation is high. The powers of the world are attempting to inflict enough financial pain on the economy through interest rate hikes to slow consumption and reduce prices.

We are currently on the brink of a recession - sure, what could possibly go wrong?

Overheated economy will eventually need a correction, aka a recession. The macro economic policy makers know this, and will only do so when it is safe to.

In the past we have Vietnam War, Y2K, etc to avoid and economy overheated and inflation went crazy till they finally stop with enough interest rate to cool off into a recession or depression. Today we have a finishing pandemic (economically speaking, whether you belive it is real or not) and super low interest rates for years finally going back up to historical normal.

We will hit a recession eventually, but it has to be after a high enough interest rate to dampen a lot of economy, maybe after the pent-up demand is done? Maybe people stopped moving far away to cash out on the real estate and drives up real estate and work from home stopped? I don't know when would it be. It could and it will go wrong, just, the market can go insane longer than you have enough capital to wait it out.

 

[PWMDMD]

Overheated economy will eventually need a correction, aka a recession. The macro economic policy makers know this, and will only do so when it is safe to.

In the past we have Vietnam War, Y2K, etc to avoid and economy overheated and inflation went crazy till they finally stop with enough interest rate to cool off into a recession or depression. Today we have a finishing pandemic (economically speaking, whether you belive it is real or not) and super low interest rates for years finally going back up to historical normal.

We will hit a recession eventually, but it has to be after a high enough interest rate to dampen a lot of economy, maybe after the pent-up demand is done? Maybe people stopped moving far away to cash out on the real estate and drives up real estate and work from home stopped? I don't know when would it be. It could and it will go wrong, just, the market can go insane longer than you have enough capital to wait it out.

That correction is better sooner rather than later. For the OP, I'd be very weary of a business plan that depends on the current rate of overconsumption for success - this spending orgy is coming to an end sooner or later and the last thing I'd want is a manufacturing facility with over payed labor making a product that is decreasing in demand and price.

 

[SC Maintenance]

One part can stop the line.

I work for the company that makes this part - or one of them. Its amazing how many manufacturers that don't stock the $500 spare that keeps the $5M machine running. Some accountant somewhere got a bonus for lowering their inventory costs.

 

[Vil_Riker]

I work for the company that makes this part - or one of them. Its amazing how many manufacturers that don't stock the $500 spare that keeps the $5M machine running. Some accountant somewhere got a bonus for lowering their inventory costs.

How often does the part break? If it is rare then you have a maintenance contract with an overnight capability.

 

[brianl703]

How often does the part break? If it is rare then you have a maintenance contract with an overnight capability.

Reminds me of when I had a blade switch in a blade server chassis fail. Dell support contract with 4-hour response.

Sent a replacement switch. BAD. Sent another replacement switch. Also BAD.

That's when they said, "We sent all the replacements we have in the local warehouse, we won't be able to get you a replacement until the day after tomorrow".

At least the 3rd one they sent worked. The first two were obviously "quality refurbished", the refurbishment process consisting of cleaning it up with Windex and paper towel.

 

[SC Maintenance]

How often does the part break? If it is rare then you have a maintenance contract with an overnight capability.

For common parts - absolutely.

However a lot of machines have custom parts. Parts made specifically for that machine. There not truly "custom", more like unique option set - like a linear motor with a specific length, or a pressure sensor with a specific scale. If you don't stock one no one else stocks one either. Its not like ordering a starter for a 2005 chevy.

 

[ekrampitzjr]

There's a difference between shortages and "shortages". Most of what we have are the latter, either staged or simply hyped to scare everybody. The middlemen are doing this to hike prices to a new level.

We saw claims of lumber shortages last year. But even then Lowe's and Home Depot near me had plenty of lumber and no evident shortages when I looked myself. Plenty at the new, much higher prices, that is.

We're hearing that the supply of diesel fuel is down to less than 30 days in the US. But that's true only if all the US refineries suddenly stopped producing it; instead they're producing every drop of diesel they can. But in the meantime diesel fuel is $2/US gallon more than regular gasoline. By the way, every station here that sells it has it. No station has posted a sign saying "out of diesel".

Ditto for butter. We've been hearing hype about a "butter shortage for the holidays" since October. But Lidl just had a sale with its phone app on its store-brand butter, 2 pounds for $4, a screaming deal. You wouldn't have seen that with a real shortage. Meanwhile everyone else has hiked prices, even though stores all have good stocks.

When the middlemen get prices where they want them, these "shortages" will resolve themselves as if by magic. Don't put a lot of money into starting a manufacturing venture in the meantime.

 

[Dave Hess]

We need more manufacturing in the USA and not be at the mercy of other countries.

 

[SatinSilver]

GON, what happened to the tree farm idea you had last year or so when you retire? Perhaps it wasn't trees but I thought you mentioned a farm of some sort.

 

[andrew_j]

Finding people to do the work is a major problem in this country.

Finding them is easy if offer you offer appropriate pay where they can afford local housing and living expenses, career ladder and appealing workplace . If not don’t bother.

 

[JeffKeryk]

We need more manufacturing in the USA and not be at the mercy of other countries.

Agree, but I don't see how it's possible without ultra high automation. Labor costs would drive selling prices to a point that is not competitive.