No politics- How’s your 401K doing for you?

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After stocks go up, they come down. Many times I thought we've hit the peak and I should cash out. Thankfully I'm too chicken to try to time the market. I would've lost out on some good runups we've had recently.
 
Originally Posted by JeffKeryk
Anyone who is in the market is doing well. It's been on a 10 year run which is unprecedented.
My 401K is pretty conservative.
My other investment products pretty much defy common investment sense.
But that's Silicon Valley. Go big or go home.



Yep it is unprecedented, that is my worry. We are due a correction and I think the Fed bailing out the short loan fund this year and the massive debt/tax cuts we have taken only kicked the can down the road.
So yea short term those of us that can afford to have a lot of money in the market are doing great. But the over all economy health, esp long term, is not great.

I moved most of my money to bonds and am am still up 22% in one of them, a bond. The other bonds I have a little money in are in the 7-8% range. Thats still crazy for bonds, some even tax free ones.
I am looking to move a lot of my money into cash as I am uncertain of the market next year. I think the first quarter will be ok but after that its even more blurry then this year.
 
Very well.

The past few years have been good to us, financially. We are able to invest a substantial amount every year, and when coupled with the market returns of the past couple years, we have been able to grow our net worth considerably. Additionally, my wife is a former stockbroker/banker, USN Intelligence officer, who is very up on current geopolitical and economic trends. We buy and sell stocks in a brokerage account that is part of my 401(k). The total return on this portion of the portfolio (about 35%) is less important to me than the shared effort and inclusion between partners. That portion is an investment in relationship as well as financial instrument.

I've got a good friend (30+ years, former F-14 pilot) who is a financial adviser. His advice and perspective are invaluable.

This isn't a journey you should attempt alone.

You need a good guide.
 
I agree on guide. My blind luck was rolling 401k into ira/money market and leaving for 3-4 years sitting(apathy) and then 2008 happened and I was back in.
 
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It would be interesting to see an anonymous poll to see how many here are 401K multi-millionaires figuring out the best value in motor oil and hunting down clearance prices because the everyday price is too high. : )

The market has had two historically high peeks and valleys over the last 25 years. Going back I would have went all in on .coms in 95, rode out the 98 dip, sold in 2000, shorted in late 2000, covered in 2003, when all in with 3X leverage in 2003, solder in late 2007. short in 2008, covered in 2009. 3x leverages in 2010. rude the next 9 years to a golden palace in the mountains. We're talking moats, dragons for guards and everything.
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Oh lets not forget bitcoins!!!!

Realistically, if you beat 3% annually over that time period, your risk exposure to the market was worth it vs bonds. That's my happy-not happy line.
 
I think there are probably quite a few BITOGers who have a net worth in the 7 figure range and still hunt down good deals on motor oil.

Or ammo...

Being careful with your money is part of how you get to a high net worth. It's a lifetime habit that built the net worth in the first place.

People who are careless with their money tend to end up with little money in the end.
 
Anyone think 2020 will see cracks in the economy like what Jimzz mentioned 5 posts above ?
Lots of bad economic news that simply can't be ignored.

Booming stock market can't keep going up and up forever. Lots bubbles that's in the distance and headed our way. I like watching Ray Dalio videos and he talks a lot of what's coming.

I know a few wealthy people that are taking profits and reducing their exposure....
 
28.3% YTD returns in my 401(k)

About 20% in foreign funds, 5% precious metals, another 25% in some blended funds and about 50% in an S&P 500 index.
 
I've reduced my exposure a bit.

Warren Buffet is reported to have said, "Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy".

We've had a great run and I've taken some profits and have some cash on the sidelines. About 20% cash right now, which leaves us in a position to buy if a correction comes along.

Part of why we've done so well is a bit of fortuitous timing. My divorce left me with cash in my 401(k), since I had moved to cash to prevent any account value fluctuations when the court was dividing assets.

Years later, when the market tanked in summer 2008, I was newly married, all in cash, and we selected and bought stocks in my brokerage account. e.g. Boeing at $44. Others were fearful, and we were greedy.

Worked out great.

In concert with my financial adviser, and my wife, we've taken just a bit of a defensive position. Others are greedy right now, the market is at all time highs.

That makes me just a bit fearful...
 
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Originally Posted by Mr Nice
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Originally Posted by Wolf359
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Originally Posted by cos
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Thanks guys. Looks like my mine is currently sitting at 22%. I just have it sitting on a 2060 plan.
 
The part that hurts is the tax you pay to fed govt when you take out of you 401K when you have the mandatory RMD after you turn 70yrs old.
 
Originally Posted by Astro14
I've reduced my exposure a bit.

Warren Buffet is reported to have said, "Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy".

We've had a great run and I've taken some profits and have some cash on the sidelines. About 20% cash right now, which leaves us in a position to buy if a correction comes along.

Part of why we've done so well is a bit of fortuitous timing. My divorce left me with cash in my 401(k), since I had moved to cash to prevent any account value fluctuations when the court was dividing assets.

Years later, when the market tanked in summer 2008, I was newly married, all in cash, and we selected and bought stocks in my brokerage account. e.g. Boeing at $44. Others were fearful, and we were greedy.

Worked out great.

In concert with my financial adviser, and my wife, we've taken just a bit of a defensive position. Others are greedy right now, the market is at all time highs.

That makes me just a bit fearful...



Yep and he is sitting on over 100 billion cash right now and not buying anything. Hes backed off several deals and thinks the market is over priced for the most part.
 
I'm just starting in retirement but not collecting so I've throttled back.

so I'm only 25% equities now, the balance in short term med-low grade bond funds and 25% cash in gvt moneymkt.

I just need a 5-7% return, got 16% this year but 2018 was a loser with a 9% loss !

Now don't forget to make moves that will minimize taxes - or you will eat away your gains BIG TIME

Got to look at the whole picture - not just gains.

A financial Huckster on the radio was talking about dollar-cost -averaging your rollover in to ROTH

but i haven taken a look at that or mathematically simulated it to reveal its benefit or detriment.

But I would be wary, many tech stocks appear grossly overvalued and they steer the DOW.
 
Lots of good points, especially "Got to look at the whole picture - not just gains."
The incredible gains of the past 10 years are not your money until you take it. It's only paper gains.
Sometimes you gotta take some $$ off the table as a hedge against downturns.
Personally, I am bullish on America; living in Silicon Valley, with its incredible opportunity, will do that to you.

There are other important factors beyond 401K accounts.
The impossible dream of paying off my house has beome a reality.
I installed a tankless water heater, solar (with new roof) and replaced the stupid lawns with bark and a few trees.
The goal is low cost of living going forward.
So far so good. Given all the mistakes I have made I am one of the lucky ones.
 
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I'm in a deferred compensation plan through work (NY Gov't). Limited plan but decent choices. I am conservative with 50% in Vanguard Wellington. Rest is US Large Cap; US Mid Cap; and a 10% high risk international. The international has grown but very little. The remainder has bee excellent.
 
Originally Posted by Ws6
This thread makes me want to figure out how to get a 401K. Can you get one without an employer being a part of it?

A 401K is a tax deferred vehicle to invest.
I would call your local Schwab office and make an appointment.
There are others; I consolidated, mostly anyways, with Schwab.

You just might get rich. Good luck.
 
Originally Posted by Railrust
I have two accounts...one I have with Vanguard (mostly index funds) and it returned 21% or so. The other is a target 2030 fund through another company and it returned 10.5%.

I've since taken the money out of the target retirement fund and moved it to 70% index and 30% bonds. I've been meaning to do this for years and it was a HUGE mistake by me to wait this long. I have lost thousands on top of thousands by investing in target dated funds. And when the market drops? I still lose big in the target funds. So I lose when it bounces back and drops.

My wife made around 20% with her's.

So it was a good year. Makes up for last year when the major indexes came in at -7%.

I would think next year we might squeeze another somewhat good return...they're forecasting a 7% return. Could be higher with a favorable China deal and interest cut. Otherwise I think we could be heading down a bit. But hey, if you invest in a 401k you're dollar cost averaging anyway every month.



Target funds are just a way to automatically balance your allocations as you age. Whether or not they're good depends entirely on the underlying funds. Index funds and ETF's from Vanguard or Schwab are cheap. Target funds based on those index funds are also cheap. You don't really give up anything by doing this, unless you think you can time the market and switch allocation models at exactly the right time. I'm in my 8th decade and I've never found a way to do this. Every time I've attempted to be a stock picker I've been burned.

I have a number of target funds and fixed allocation funds which split money between stocks and bonds at a fixed rate (i.e. 30-70). I use both because they self balance, but as long as both have low expenses (under 20 basis points), it makes very little difference whether the percentages are stuck at a predetermined mix or becoming more conservative (target funds).
 
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