New-Vehicle Inventory report

In 2019 I shopped my rav4 at every dealer within 300 miles. Cheapest was local to me - two Toyota dealerships in town, both owned by different large regional dealer operations.

A month ago I requested an e price from my dealer on more or less the same car. I legitimately need to buy another car in the next 6 months - any car mind you, too many drivers, not enough cars. They quoted it out at more or less MSRP - some port and dealer installed crap but not terrible. I said I would wait and they immediately offered $1000 off.

I think things are normalizing a bit. Whether its supply side or demand side or likely both, guess we will find out.
 
So does this mean we can go back to negotiating below MSRP for some of these more available makes or are dealers still being greedy?
I see 2 issues, dealers overpaid for used inventory so don't want to sell at a loss.. New inventory was bought on credit which is getting more expensive as well as increased operating costs. Vehicles sitting don't do anything so I think we will see some sales but not a price drop as a whole. If things get really bad, dealers may start closing again and clearing out or moving inventory.
 
Well, with the coming recession, two things will happen:

1. Expect to see less stuff build. Toyota and Honda are already doing that.

2. Don’t expect cheap: Even models like the Maverick will come loaded. Price will make no difference. No budget rides here. What if they don’t sell you say? They’ll sell them on a payment (leasing)

I don’t expect too much to change with this but costs……
 
People are signing up for 8yr car loans at 4%. Since everyone has straight up lost their minds and sign up for this stuff, why would car dealers lower prices? Until people stop paying $5,000+ over MSRP to have the latest Telluride or Bronco (trading in their "old" 3yr old car) I expect nothing to change. Car makers have found out that there is a large segment of the population who will pay whatever it takes to get what they want so why produce more or lower spec cars just to make $500/car ?
 
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Been trying to purchase a F-150 Hybrid off a state contract for work and it's hopeless. They just released the MY 23 contract and Ford already closed the order window until MY 24 according to the dealers on the contract. We're probably out of luck unless we pay retail for whatever is sitting on the lot somewhere. Shame because the contract pricing is in the neighborhood of $20k cheaper.
 
Manheim, one of the largest Auction House's Posts good data publicly. Values are dropping

https://publish.manheim.com/en/services/consulting/used-vehicle-value-index.html


ManheimUsedVehicleValueIndex-LineGraph.jpg
 
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