New Solar Cycle Prediction

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 Quote:
May 29, 2009: An international panel of experts led by NOAA and sponsored by NASA has released a new prediction for the next solar cycle. Solar Cycle 24 will peak, they say, in May 2013 with a below-average number of sunspots.
BUT:
 Quote:
The latest forecast revises an earlier prediction issued in 2007. At that time, a sharply divided panel believed solar minimum would come in March 2008 followed by either a strong solar maximum in 2011 or a weak solar maximum in 2012. Competing models gave different answers, and researchers were eager for the sun to reveal which was correct. "It turns out that none of our models were totally correct," says Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center, NASA's lead representative on the panel. "The sun is behaving in an unexpected and very interesting way."
And:
 Quote:
"Go ahead and mark your calendar for May 2013," says Pesnell. "But use a pencil."
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/29may_noaaprediction.htm
 
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 Originally Posted By: Tempest
 Quote:
May 29, 2009: An international panel of experts led by NOAA and sponsored by NASA has released a new prediction for the next solar cycle. Solar Cycle 24 will peak, they say, in May 2013 with a below-average number of sunspots.
BUT:
 Quote:
The latest forecast revises an earlier prediction issued in 2007. At that time, a sharply divided panel believed solar minimum would come in March 2008 followed by either a strong solar maximum in 2011 or a weak solar maximum in 2012. Competing models gave different answers, and researchers were eager for the sun to reveal which was correct. "It turns out that none of our models were totally correct," says Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center, NASA's lead representative on the panel. "The sun is behaving in an unexpected and very interesting way."
And:
 Quote:
"Go ahead and mark your calendar for May 2013," says Pesnell. "But use a pencil."
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/29may_noaaprediction.htm
Somewhere, somehow, ABore will blame this on earthly global warming.
 
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 Quote:
[It turns out that none of our models were totally correct
Neither were most of Wall St.'s I'd say that being not totally correct in all instances under all models is a big departure from being 100% wrong all the time.
 
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Climatology is a tough science. Accuracy is hard to come by. They are learning more and more everyday though.
 
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 Originally Posted By: lewdwig
I read the sunspot cycle is at a 50 year low, this could account for the cold winter and spring.
Fewer sunspots -> hotter sun -> warmer average temps on earth Sunspots are COLD areas (well, compared to the rest anyway) on the surface of the sun. The fact that we've had a few successive solar cycles with below-average sunspot activity is most likely what is being mis-interpreted as "global warming." A strong sunspot cycle could swing global temps back toward the cold side a lot quicker than alleged "global warming" could ever offset.
 
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Last August was the first time on record that no sunspot activity was seen on the Sun. No sunspots account for cooler, not warmer temps on earth, BTW.http://iperceive.net/no-sun-spots-in-august-2008-another-sign-of-global-cooling/ All I know is that we are MUCH cooler around here [Chicago area] the last few years, and wetter.
 
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440magnum,I think you're confused. Periods of fewer sunspots are associated with cooler temperatures, though the total variance in solar output is small. "Since sunspots are darker than the surrounding photosphere it might be expected that more sunspots would lead to less solar radiation and a decreased solar constant. However, the surrounding margins of sunspots are hotter than the average, and so are brighter; overall, more sunspots increase the sun's solar constant or brightness. The variation caused by the sunspot cycle to solar output is relatively small, on the order of 0.1% of the solar constant (a peak-to-trough range of 1.3 W m-2 compared to 1366 W m-2 for the average solar constant).[6][7] Sunspots were rarely observed during the Maunder Minimum in the second part of the 17th Century. This coincides with a period of cooling known as the Little Ice Age."
 

Tempest

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 Originally Posted By: simple_gifts
If Tempest were around when man tried to perfect forging steel, he would have gone home after the first sword broke.
Say what?
 

Tempest

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Interesting how the insults come out when the logic runs out. Expected. I guess asking him to clarify his insult is too much of a simple gift to ask for...
 
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 Originally Posted By: mechtech2
Last August was the first time on record that no sunspot activity was seen on the Sun. No sunspots account for cooler, not warmer temps on earth, BTW.http://iperceive.net/no-sun-spots-in-august-2008-another-sign-of-global-cooling/ All I know is that we are MUCH cooler around here [Chicago area] the last few years, and wetter.
Alas, Chicago isn't the whole world. http://weather.about.com/od/globalwarming/qt/summer08temps.htm
 
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 Originally Posted By: PandaBear
Does it really matter?
If the earth is warming due to CO2 emissions, it is vital to pass the Clean Energy and Security Act. If the earth is cooling due to increased sun spots, it is insane to further burden our economy with it. I think it matters big time. I hope this isn't so political as to get the thread locked.
 

Tempest

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 Originally Posted By: MarkC
 Originally Posted By: mechtech2
Last August was the first time on record that no sunspot activity was seen on the Sun. No sunspots account for cooler, not warmer temps on earth, BTW.http://iperceive.net/no-sun-spots-in-august-2008-another-sign-of-global-cooling/ All I know is that we are MUCH cooler around here [Chicago area] the last few years, and wetter.
Alas, Chicago isn't the whole world. http://weather.about.com/od/globalwarming/qt/summer08temps.htm
NOAA cooks their books to get the answer they want.
 
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