Of course Mercedes or Lexus would say that. Tesla is diluting the marketplace. So for the same number of car buyers, they will remove some market share. That’s a given. Especially when a car like the model 3 is being arbitrarily placed upmarket and sold as if it’s some sort of steal.
I find it wild that we are now basing customer satisfaction on one round of vehicles. The model S came out in 2012. Very few were around in 2012-2013. By 2016 there were maybe 100k in the USA. in 2019 those 2016 cars on three year leases came time for renewal. How do we know they weren’t given a sweetheart deal? What is bogus is thinking that we truly understand owner satisfaction and repeat buyer trends based upon leases that barely started coming up last year. Most people have brand loyalty to some extent. I don’t see how this is news. For all the claims about forecasting date, I still don’t get how you cannot accept that Tesla isn’t at any steady-state trend yet. In either direction. They could still be going up (as mentioned before, if they get some lower cost options, gross sales will surely go up).
And the Prius analogy is a good analogy, because at the time the Prius was a niche vehicle, like the Teslas are. If you are the brand manager for Prius, loss, even internally, is a loss in sales. Funny too that very few options have come up to contest the Prius, which isn’t particularly hot selling anymore.
I wish Tesla well. I’m a shareholder. I might buy a model 3 as a commuter at some point because it’s ideal for some of my uses. But I think pure eV is stupid for most (Again I’m a PHEV believer), I know the intrinsic limits in the tech, but I don’t know buyer trends, and won’t claim to know them. But when you have the model 3 outselling the Camry, I’d argue it’s probably still a fluke. I love this screen shot. Tesla data in this chart I would equate to the Toyota Venza data below. And note the Prius numbers Btw...
Responding to your points...
The lux dealers I spoke to explained they believed the Model Y was the biggest threat (far beyond segment dilution) to their SUV sales, which is their bread and butter these days. I believe Lexus sells more RX than all other models combined? Something like that. I am not sure anyone considers Teslas a steal. I don't.
Consumer Reports states customer satisfaction as their most important statistic and indicator of future sales. Tesla leases far fewer cars than most manufacturers, especially EVs. Sweetheart deals? No. Teslas are not discounted; you don't get to bargain. I understand there is a lower cost model in the works, perhaps to be priced at $25K. As far as today, there are only a handful of choices when you order a car.
The Prius analgy is bogus. Comparing 1 model to a car company is apples to oranges.
"Funny too that very few options have come up to contest the Prius"
Toyota now offers hybrid versions of almost all of their cars; I believe the new Venza is only hybrid? This is a direct result of (the ugly) Prius success.
If the analgy were correct, you are saying that Tesla will pretty much go away. I am not sure how anyone can predict 10 years from now.
I guess I don't understand the term nieche car. Gigafactorys Shanghai, Berlin and Austin are up or coming up within perhaps a year. That's a lotta nieches.
How many cars, be it Prius, Tesla model, whatever, does it take to be or not be a nieche car? Is there a definition for nieche? One might argue that every car is a nieche car becasuse it is designed for a specific market segment, or nieche.
The Prius was one of the biggest sellers in CA for 10 years. CA is, by far, the biggest (important) car market in the nation. Don't you think every other car maker was envious of those sales?
If you want to talk nieche, perhaps the hydrogen electric Murai, which is so far a failure, is a better example. Toyota followed the "distinctive" unique (ugly) look strategy. Sure didn't work this time. I talked to a few owners; they did not like their car and would certainly not be repeat owners. Most Prius owners were very happy with their purchase.
I have stated many times that EVs are not for everyone. Personally, I believe that many people who spend Tesla money would be better off buying a Civic, Accord, etc and investing the difference. "Are you sure you can afford this car?" is my mantra. You can say the same for Benzes, Porsches, Vettes, you name it. I used to drive used Hondas and Toyota pickups. When we ordered the Model 3, checking every box would not have been a problem. I bought the single motor RWD car.
EVs, as mass produced cars, are in relative infancy. If they weren't important, why is MBZ citing them in their new strategy? That's why I struggle with the term nieche.
I appreciate your comments, but I do not believe they reflect what is going on in the market. All good.