Is electrifying transport going to increase demand? The IESO thinks so

OVERKILL

OVERKILL

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This graphic (shared courtesy of Energy Analyst Scott Luft) is from Ontario's IESO and shows the projected incremental increase in demand, with the most pronounced coming from electrifying transport:
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That's an incremental increase from 2032 to 2040 going up to ~22TW, ~19TWh of which is from the transportation sector in 2040. You can see that the average projected increase, annually, from all other sectors averages around 5TWh. Ontario currently uses ~138TWh/year, so that works out to ~100TWh of demand increase from other sources alone by 2040; demand increasing to ~240TWh before we include transport.

We currently have absolutely no new capacity, other than a 300MW SMR coming online so far within that time period. And in fact, currently, we are slated to lose 3,100MW in 2025 if Pickering is prematurely retired. We are NOT ready.
 
It seems obvious enough that would happen, except it still depends on the myth that we can start making batteries out of unicorn horn dust to get the adoption rates that the electric consumption projections depend on.

It's (adoption rate) just not happening unless either the majority of EVs are bicycles (then still not that rise in consumption rate), unles as per the graph rise taking off, 2032 is the year we find where the unicorns are hiding.
 
Trav said:
Watch what happens in places that have a poor grid or places that brown outs already when to many people run their AC. These moron are going to put the whole country behind the 8 ball.
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The general populace will never figure that out unless their Tv tells them.
 
Dave9 said:
It seems obvious enough that would happen, except it still depends on the myth that we can start making batteries out of unicorn horn dust to get the adoption rates that the electric consumption projections depend on.

It's (adoption rate) just not happening unless either the majority of EVs are bicycles (then still not that rise in consumption rate), unles as per the graph rise taking off, 2032 is the year we find where the unicorns are hiding.
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Did you read the piece about the Salton Sea in S. Central CA?

www.kcet.org

As Lithium Drilling Advances at the Salton Sea, Researchers Work Out the Details

Companies progress towards commercial lithium drilling at the Salton Sea, while teams of researchers explore questions about effective extraction methods and environmental impacts.
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There needs to be more energy produced to power all these electric cars. I may be an idiot ? But.. that makes sense.

Okay, that's all I got. Thank you.
 
Despite ongoing claims to the contrary, it takes a certain amount of energy to do a certain amount of work. Cars and trucks require a significant amount of power. Interestingly, automotive travel only consumes about 14% of overall national energy use. I think the chart probably reflects the electrification of everything under the sun.
 
Cujet said:
Despite ongoing claims to the contrary, it takes a certain amount of energy to do a certain amount of work. Cars and trucks require a significant amount of power. Interestingly, automotive travel only consumes about 14% of overall national energy use. I think the chart probably reflects the electrification of everything under the sun.
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If you look at the legend, the yellow section is "transportation sector" which may include rail and busses but is definitely not "everything under the sun", that's captured under the other categories ;)
 
I'm sure back when automobile was first introduced people have the same concern about where they are going to get the oil from.

About electricity, I'm sure when there's money involved there will be lobbying, marketing, campaigning, and that will change the plan on the ground with new grid, new generation, and on demand usage / production. At least EVs are basically battery that can be charged when the capacity is cheaper and not like AC you cannot store them without freezing ice.

The main question to ask is: can they reduce oil consumption by more or less as a whole? Which country wants to go EV because they have no oil and have to import coal / natural gas / build nuke instead. The geopolitical part of the equation would be the biggest problem for most places on earth. We really should have more CANDU reactors in the world, rather than reactor designs requiring 15-20% enrichment we can burn up natural uranium / spent fuel from other reactors / maybe even thorium.


What is the light pink / purple section of the chart?
 
PandaBear said:
I'm sure back when automobile was first introduced people have the same concern about where they are going to get the oil from.
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I’m going to take a stab at this and say that back then the automobile was used for short trips and only in areas where fuel was available. If one wanted to travel a long distance they took the stage which eventually became the bus.

It was a totally different world then.
 
PimTac said:
I’m going to take a stab at this and say that back then the automobile was used for short trips and only in areas where fuel was available. If one wanted to travel a long distance they took the stage which eventually became the bus.

It was a totally different world then.
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Yes, steam train + trolley + horses + some automobile for the rich and special equipment that horses aren't good with.
 
PandaBear said:
Suddenly start going up like crazy and stay flat at 2028?
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Remember, this is year-over change, but yeah, that's my take, that there's a sudden jump, then the rate of increase flattens out and actually heads downward for a while, before starting to increase again around 2035.
 
I used to be on the "the generation will come as the mandate for EVs come" but I seriously wonder if in 20 years, we'll be singing the tune of "I told you so" whilst in rolling blackouts.
 
Pew said:
I used to be on the "the generation will come as the mandate for EVs come" but I seriously wonder if in 20 years, we'll be singing the tune of "I told you so" whilst in rolling blackouts.
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So nothing different than right now?

IESO has a long history of one thing, consistently being wrong on long term projections .

The US counterparts (FERV) have been terrible at projecting future demand since the 1950’s
To cheap to monitor and 100% electric heat nationwide in 15 years my arse.

Now change scope to the next year or two and they do pretty well.
 
I am tickled with having Natural Gas in my home. This past winter mother-in-law's total electric home power bill was over $300 a month and my gas bill for heating my house and water heater was -$65 to $77 a month. Now they want to outlaw Natural gas also I been reading.
 
I find it hard to trust any multi-sector economic forecast beyond 5 years into the future; there are far too many sociopolitical variables in play that can and will affect supply and demand. I understand why electrical system operators have to run these scenarios, though.
 
Trav said:
Watch what happens in places that have a poor grid or places that brown outs already when to many people run their AC. These moron are going to put the whole country behind the 8 ball.
Click to expand...
Most of society can only think with out discernment what their Tv tells them to think. That being said working on electric forklifts, I wouldn't mind having an electric vehicle for an around town or a short trip local use vehicle.
 
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